An 80 deg temp swing in 4.5 days. Not too shabby.

Nasty fire weather conditions in Nebraska this afternoon. Mid 90s, single digit humidity and winds gusting 25-35 mph.

Record high broken. Should make it to 80.

Looks like we're going to try to make a run at 80 Saturday. What a difference a week makes in March!

...And the RAP.

Here is what the HRRR has been showing for QPF since yesterday's morning run. This only goes to 7 am Sunday to get the maximum number of runs for illustration. Suddenly, today, it snapped into reality.

For the record.. here is what the AI GFS and ECMWF have had for QPF the past few days.

NBM has too much of the CAMs' output in its influence. It needs to incorporate the strengths of both.

Early in the CAM lifecycle, it does what it wants to do with its internal physics. You see a lot of shifts north or south toward what eventually becomes reality. AI NEVER had this axis as far north as the CAMs. In fact, it has always been from the metro and just south.

AI does better with large scale features, which sets the tracks. CAMs do better with the smaller scale intensity. Combine the two and it is unbeatable. For now, forecasters MUST have intervention until the two can marry.

As long as you know where the heaviest axis is going to fall (with help from AI), and you're confident in the amounts provided by CAMs, you can shift the CAM amounts to the AI axis and have a great forecast.

The AI guidance has been the platinum standard this year in diagnosing where the heaviest axis will set up. The CAMs are still superior at predicting how much snow will accumulate in the heaviest axis.

There is very little doubt the Twin Cities will have at least 12 inches of snow. Several members also now have 20 inches at a 10:1 ratio. This would be one of the heaviest snowstorms on record. It is important to know how to interpret models....

So far tied the record high of 51 today, and we should very easily beat the record of 50 tomorrow. Maybe mid 50s.

One has to wonder if by releasing Sam Darnold the Vikings make the colossal mistake of a decade. He didnt do well late last season, but he's a clearly a Super Bowl caliber QB.

A dew point of -35 is pretty nuts. The humidity is only 35%. I'm betting MSP drops to into the low to mid -20s tonight.

The next snow squall is underway and it's wild. Near 40 mph wind gusts and probably 1/8 mile visibility. Wish it was light enough to get video.

Well, here we go.

Unless warming stalls immediately, it's going to be hard not to break the record high of 71 this afternoon.

Making a run for lower 70s Friday, which could break a record high. Latest 70 on record is Nov 17th. ☀️