Big thanks to all the participants, both those who cared to submit challenges or responses. It was extremely interesting putting the summary together. And of course biggest thanks to the referees @JocelynnPearl @socialevol and @ciphergoth

@GoogleWorkspace @workspacedevs Help! We can't reactivate our Workspace account. The Admin Console is not letting us resubscribe to any plan. We would hate for all our data to be lost, and there is no way to contact support. The subscription expired on June 1. Can you assist?

Well, I guess I'm not writing that thread, huh!

Technology is amazing. Twitter knows they’re going to censor a thread before it’s been written.

Towards a better sensemaking system. Summon the coders... @aier @DanielSchmacht1 @JocelynnPearl @alexandrosM @evatallaksen @ciphergoth @balajis https://t.co/qhvnO5fR5j

Omura's Wager (v1): If even ivermectin skeptics say there's likely *some benefit*, even small, and treatment side-effects are minimal... ...then we've got little to lose, but many to save, by giving it to anyone with a positive COVID test when they're sent home to isolate.🧵

So were ppl taking IVM in Zimbabwe in Jan, prior to authorization? That seems plausible. However, as said, the quote makes a very strong claim of “widespread use” and we feel more evidence would be needed to fully support this. Any feedback, let us know!

There's also evidence that IVM tablets might have been given, but the qtt and timing is unknown. Even if import data were to be found, it wouldn't account for possible volume entered via smuggling (or pre-existing supplies in the country) https://t.co/WESQcOGeJL

Eg one article wrote 0.5m doses “went out” in Dec - Feb period. However, it’s unclear what “went out” refers to, & whether it was given as treatment or prophylaxis. https://t.co/oe0BdozrKG

In his challenge, @ClarkAllister set out to independently ascertain how much IVM was used in Zimbabwe in the Dec - Feb period. That would have provided an interesting data point but has proven tricky, as he himself pointed out. https://t.co/BDA5fS9auV

On the other hand, some articles suggest Dr Stone’s treatment with IVM at the time was controversial enough that one doctor tried to get her disbarred for her approach. https://t.co/NIdPddEQ4L https://t.co/hBr3ahCYZS

Dr Stone's quote in the FLCCC video also alludes to a lot of hype on social media about IVM in the 2 weeks prior to Jan. 26.

Quote: “There has been a lot of hype regarding [Ivermectin] and nebulised ionic nanosilver as preventative agents and/or treatment options for Covid-19, with many medical practitioners prescribing either or both and many people doing ‘their own thing’ [...]"

- There's separate indications that IVM was being prescribed by doctors for COVID in Zimbabwe prior to the official authorization. For instance this article from Jan. 21, 2021 states that “many medical practitioners” were already prescribing it. https://t.co/rFs9lptcOV

- There’s multiple references online about how Dr Stone, at her practice, was administering IVM with nano silver to her patients as of Aug 2020, with what she describes as great success. https://t.co/BG86LMPIo2 https://t.co/oe0BdozrKG

- Dr Kory based his quote on an interview the FLCCC did in early 2021 with Dr Jackie Stone, a Harare-based practitioner, something the FLCCC confirmed in a response to B\S. https://t.co/8Pvoh4ruJb

Discussion: - Zimbabwe granted official authorization for the use of ivermectin as treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19 on Jan 26, 2021. - By then, domestic COVID-19 cases had already been dropping sharply for about 2 weeks. Deaths started falling on Jan 25.

- That said, the quote makes a very strong claim of “widespread use”, and we feel the evidence available isn’t fully sufficient to support this. You can read the full details in our report (link below) or keep on reading here: https://t.co/bNSNsbR30t

After soliciting & reviewing additional evidence, it seems that: - There's circumstantial evidence of a hype around IVM in Zimbabwe prior to its authorization on Jan. 26, and of people taking it and getting it prescribed against COVID, possibly even before cases started dropping

The quote was from Dr Pierre Kory on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast. In it, Kory commented on Zimbabwe's crash in COVID cases in early 2021 and attributed this to the "widespread adoption of ivermectin".

Is there support for *widespread* use of ivermectin in Zimbabwe in Jan '21? This was one of the challenges submitted as part of our Ground Truth Challenge. The submission failed the process, but as we put together our review we felt the evidence both ways was inconclusive.