Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
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Scottish elections and polling data. Not using Twitter anymore. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Donate; https://t.co/8y6in4knNb
Scotland
Joined January 2018
For pinning purposes: Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I'm not staying on here, and neither should you be. You can find me elsewhere.
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Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I'm not staying on there, and neither should you be.
ballotbox.scot
Elon Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspit. I’m not staying on there, and neither should you be.
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Poll Analysis: Survation 7th - 13th of January 2025. Holyrood seats projection:.SNP ~ 57.Labour ~ 25.Conservative ~ 14.Reform UK ~ 12.Lib Dem ~ 11.Green ~ 10. Independence:.Not included or not yet published?
ballotbox.scot
Another dire poll for Labour suggests Anas Sarwar will struggle to make it into Bute House, whilst Reform continue to surge, and a rebuke to the idea of Alba suddenly gaining.
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Note: Slight error on the previous poll figures in the chart/first tweet: should be Greens -1, Lib Dems +1.
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This is a joint-worst seat projection (from polls BBS has in my tracker) for the Conservatives this term; equalled four times thus far, two of which were post-GE and one was just before it.
Projecting Survation 7 - 13 Jan into seats (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov / vs 2021):. SNP ~ 57 (+19 / -7).Lab ~ 25 (-11 / +3).Con ~ 14 (-7 / -17).Reform UK ~ 12 (-2 / +12).Lib Dem ~ 11 (+1 / +7).Green ~ 10 (nc / +2). (Projection caveats:
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Projecting Survation 7 - 13 Jan into seats (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov / vs 2021):. SNP ~ 57 (+19 / -7).Lab ~ 25 (-11 / +3).Con ~ 14 (-7 / -17).Reform UK ~ 12 (-2 / +12).Lib Dem ~ 11 (+1 / +7).Green ~ 10 (nc / +2). (Projection caveats:
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Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov):. List:.SNP ~ 31% (+4).Lab ~ 21% (-4).Con ~ 14% (-1).RUK ~ 13% (+2).LD ~ 10% (nc).Grn ~ 9% (nc).Alba ~ 2% (-1). Const:.SNP ~ 35% (+4).Lab ~ 22% (-5).Con ~ 14% (nc).RUK ~ 13% (+3).LD ~ 8% (-1).Grn ~ 6% (nc)
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov):. SNP ~ 33% (+2).Lab ~ 24% (-4).RUK ~ 15% (+2).Con ~ 14% (-1).LD ~ 9% (+3).Grn ~ 4% (-1)
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This is patter that has been enabled and even excused by some members of our parliament, even as other members *are caught on BBC camera being abused by bigots in the street with this exact wording*. Wise up, the lot of ye's.
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Leaving this website shortly so let me be absolutely clear: nobody has to like the Greens and you're free to criticise them, but this "deviant" patter? You're just a foul bigot making life harder for the LGBTI+ community. My community. Nothing but contempt for these scumbags.
@BallotBoxScot So happy to see the Greens getting reemed. If you vote Green you're a deviant.
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By-Election Preview: Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar (East Dunbartonshire) 13th of February 2025. Last Councillor to MP by-election, Lib Dems starting a quite distant third, but that hasn't stopped them pulling off big wins before. Call: Lean LD.
ballotbox.scot
The last of our Councillor to MP by-elections, the Lib Dems are starting a quite distant third, but that hasn’t stopped them pulling off big wins before.
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New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 7 - 13 Jan (changes vs 1 - 15 Nov):. SNP ~ 33% (+2).Lab ~ 24% (-4).RUK ~ 15% (+2).Con ~ 14% (-1).LD ~ 9% (+3).Grn ~ 4% (-1)
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Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar has a relatively busy ballot: we've got the Holyrood 5, we've got Reform UK, we've got Alba, and we've got 2022's Freedom Alliance candidate this time standing for another microparty, Sovereignty.
East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar by-election due on the 13th of February. Labour beat SNP by 4.2% running 2022 as a single seat vote. Only a minority of the ward is in the vacating Lib Dem's Westminster seat (oddly!), but they'll probably blitz it.
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By-Election Preview: Bannockburn (Stirling) 23rd of January 2025. The sad passing of a Labour stalwart with 44 years experience leaves them at risk of being left with a credibility-stretching 4 (of 23) councillor administration. Call: Labour-SNP Tossup.
ballotbox.scot
The sad passing of a Labour stalwart with 44 years experience leaves Labour at risk of being left with a credibility-stretching 4 (of 23) councillor administration.
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Kilmarnock North by-election due on the 20th of February. SNP beat Labour *after transfers* here by 10% in 2022, thus they'd need a swing of 5% to take it. They haven't been getting that recently; Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse was 3.7%. As such. Lean SNP? A rarity right now!
Unfortunately we're due a return to Kilmarnock early next year, as Labour Councillor (and local group leader) for Kilmarnock North Maureen McKay sadly passed away last week:
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Just a fun little note: BBS income for the year has tipped over the point at which the majority (75% post-taxes etc, which amounts to 52.5% overall) goes directly into the pot for commissioning a poll. Donations always gratefully received!
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In 2022 terms, the SNP win a theoretical faceoff against the Lib Dems by 8.6% (47.3% to 38.7%, rest not transferring). That's the kind of swing the Lib Dems can easily find in an area they work hard. Still, fact most of the ward isn't Mid Dunbartonshire? I'll say Lean Lib Dem.
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East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar by-election due on the 13th of February. Labour beat SNP by 4.2% running 2022 as a single seat vote. Only a minority of the ward is in the vacating Lib Dem's Westminster seat (oddly!), but they'll probably blitz it.
The last of Scotland's Councillor-MPs has vacated her council seat. Lib Dem MP for Mid Dunbartonshire Susan Murray is no longer a councillor for East Dunbartonshire's Kirkintilloch East, North and Twechar. Could be an odd contest, possibly even a 3-way tossup between Lab-LD-SNP?.
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For Tayside, New Municipalism imagines a region of 11 municipalities. Dundee is the clear centre here, but in 2012 we gave Perth "city" status, rather a lot of fanfare for a settlement unjustifiably without its own council.
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For Renfrewshire, New Municipalism imagines a region of 10 municipalities. The other side of a spicy split either side of the lower Clyde, why on earth doesn't Scotland's largest town, Paisley, currently have its own council?
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