BTC Optioneer
@BTCoptioneer
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Options trader turned #Bitcoin HODLer. I sell volatility and use premiums to stack sats and $MSTR shares.
Joined February 2025
JP Morgan has a higher liquidation probability than $MSTR. Let that sink in. Few.
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$STRC kicking Bitcoin’s ass since inception We are overdue for a face-melting Bitcoiner rally
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Controversial take for some. Let me explain: $MSTR is backed by the hardest asset on earth — Bitcoin. A finite asset that will keep pulling capital away from every other asset class over the coming decades. $JPM is backed by fiat. Fiat bleeds purchasing power forever. Hard
JP Morgan has a higher liquidation probability than $MSTR. Let that sink in. Few.
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MSTR vol is down, IBIT vol is up. MSCI exclusion in February 2026 likely already priced in. • $MSTR IV: 97 • $IBIT IV: 69 • Heavy put skew in both More pain in the short term but everything will be fine in the long run. I’m selling covered calls on a portion of my stack
Vol spiking post yesterday’s selloff. Put skew is insane showing extreme fear. • $MSTR IV: 109! • $IBIT IV: 64 • Heavy put skew in both Short puts are super overpriced right now. Can’t imagine vol going much higher from here for MSTR. So if you believe in the company,
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Daily DCA into #Bitcoin is the worst DCA. Weekly and monthly DCA outperformed daily by 40% in backtests. Sometimes less is more.
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@AdamBLiv MSCI exclusion risk for $MSTR is now north of 50%. The message from Wall Street is obvious: they still don’t accept Bitcoin as a real corporate treasury asset. Top holders won’t defend MSTR and they’ll just sell and reallocate. Yet ironically, the risk/reward is improving. With
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Bitcoin is down 31% from ATH. $STRC only down 5%. It’s not perfectly pegged yet but it’s already acting like a high-yield stability tool in a Bitcoin ecosystem. That’s powerful. STRC is going to creep into more and more portfolios. The banks know this is the wedge… and that’s
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Most people think $STRC is a buy right now The truth is: you want to take on more risk during market crashes. I am buying spot BTC since it has 50%+ upside once we make new ATHs.
Which $MSTR pref is a buy right now?
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$MSTR can’t hold $STRC in the $99–101 range without active market makers and arbitrage traders. Right now the product is still too small for consistent arbitrage flow. Once STRC scales past $50B, it becomes attractive enough for traders to keep the peg tight.
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$MSTR has real headwinds right now, no point denying it: – BTC NAV / common market cap < 1 → issuing common to fund dividends would dilute shareholders – MSCI exclusion fear – Nasdaq 100 exclusion if the market cap keeps sliding – Demand for digital credit is softer than
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I still like this trade but it is important to remember that $STRC does not have to recover to $100 quickly. This can take weeks or months. But you do get paid (>11% yield) to wait.
Trade idea: buy $STRC now at $94.6. Ride it up to $100 and keep collecting the 10.5% dividend while you are at it. Easy way to beat SP500 in the next few months. NFA. DYOR.
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$STRC effective yield 10.95%. It is more correlated with SPX when BTC today. Reasonable to assume $STRC will be back at $99-101 once all the FUD starts going away
$STRC effective yield is now 11.5% 30D volatility 18% which is similar to SPX The 30D volatility would need to be less than 5% for $STRC to compete with money market funds
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Vol spiking post yesterday’s selloff. Put skew is insane showing extreme fear. • $MSTR IV: 109! • $IBIT IV: 64 • Heavy put skew in both Short puts are super overpriced right now. Can’t imagine vol going much higher from here for MSTR. So if you believe in the company,
Vol down from yesterday. • $MSTR IV: 96 • $IBIT IV: 59 • Heavy put skew in both Rolling covered calls down to 20-delta to collect more premium and reduce the drawdowns. If the selloff continues and the sentiment keeps getting worse, 30-delta covered calls can be a good
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Last cycle, it took #Bitcoin 2.5 years after the 2021 peak to make a new ATH. My gut says this time won’t take nearly that long. Macro liquidity turns in 2026. The big print is coming.
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$SATA effective yield 13.6%. My guess is the team would have to raise the dividend to 13%+ if they want to peg this thing to $100.
$STRC effective yield is now 11.5% 30D volatility 18% which is similar to SPX The 30D volatility would need to be less than 5% for $STRC to compete with money market funds
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$STRC effective yield is now 11.5% 30D volatility 18% which is similar to SPX The 30D volatility would need to be less than 5% for $STRC to compete with money market funds
Jinxed it again. $STRC keeps plummeting. Effective yield 11.3% now. The market doesn’t realize $MSTR can pay STRC dividends for decades without getting liquidated. Or maybe people just need the liquidity to buy the dips.
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