Brock Begesha
@BB_Perform
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Performance Coach @TreadHQ
Charlotte, NC
Joined July 2024
Brayan Bello debuted in 2022 with lofty expectations as the Red Sox top pitching prospect. Since then, he’s shown flashes, but his aggregate performance has been lackluster throughout his first 376 big league innings. What does a better version of Bello look like?.@TreadHQ
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RT @Christianthrow: Transfer Portal RHP. First outing in NECBL, 1 IP, 3ks, 1BB, Fastball 88-89.Still in portal looking for high academic op….
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RT @TysonJolly803: Week 1 in-house complete. Happy with the fastball PR and 5 pitches we are working on. Looking forward to week 2!.@TreadH….
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Soroka has the pieces to be a solid rotation piece in the 2nd half. With his underlying metrics pointing to a turnaround and these possible adjustments, don’t be surprised if he finishes the second half as one of the more impactful under-the-radar arms in baseball.
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It would also help diversify his mix, which could improve his results later in games by giving hitters something they haven’t seen earlier.
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-especially as something he could run in on the hands of lefties, since he rarely throws his four-seamer or sinker glove side.
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Both of these factors lead me to believe that, if he’s comfortable adding a pitch mid-season, a cutter could be an extremely helpful addition. It would support both fastballs by giving hitters another hard option to guard against-
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He’s also struggled going deeper into games. While hitters’ numbers typically improve the third time through the order, Soroka’s jump is massive, with OPS climbing over 400 points from the second time through, and over 550 points from the first time through.
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Now looking at the fastballs, we see that both are performing poorly, with hard-hit rates north of 47% and a combined wOBA of .378.
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When his changeup is thrown at 2 feet or below, it holds hitters to a .156 wOBA; when it’s above this line, that number jumps to .412. If Soroka locates this pitch down more consistently, the results will undoubtedly improve, giving him a more reliable secondary out pitch vs left.
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Looking at the changeup first – location is key here. While it feels intuitive that changeups perform better down in the zone, it’s especially true for Soroka.
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The slurve has been dominant against righties and serviceable against lefties, but his other offerings could improve.
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If we examine what’s going wrong right now for Soroka, we see substantial platoon splits – a .253 wOBA against righties versus a .361 wOBA against lefties. While his xwOBA against lefties hints at positive regression, adjustments could still help.
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That’s why things could turn around immediately. Now, let’s look at some possible adjustments he could make.
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Another positive is the breaking ball adjustment he’s made. He shifted his gyro slider into more of a slurve, and the results have been solid so far, sporting a .284 wOBA and a 30.9% whiff rate.
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-with a better defense behind him, we can expect improved results on balls in play, especially considering his sinker is running a 60% ground ball rate.
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The Nationals’ defense hasn’t been great this year, ranking 29th in OAA and overall defensive value via Fangraphs. Soroka being floated as a trade candidate provides further reason for optimism-.
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Soroka’s peripherals from the first half blow his surface stats out of the water. ERA: 5.35. Savant xERA: 3.21. Fangraphs xFIP: 3.79. K-BB: 19.3% (82nd percentile).
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Why be optimistic now?. The simplest way to find someone due for a breakout is by looking at their expected numbers versus actual results.
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As we enter the second half of the major league season, players who struggled early on will be looking to turn things around. One guy I think has a great chance to do that is Washington’s Michael Soroka. Why? See Below. @TreadHQ
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