looking at the cloudy sky in seattle. Blue orange lights without apparent source. Sure doesn’t look like the Aurora. puzzled

Science is hard. Good research makes you feel stupid. You're inadequate for the task at hand. How else would it be? You're pushing the boundaries of knowledge. Get used to it. This process is immensely rewarding.

With the war in Ukraine, Western nations have stopped collaborating with Russia on Arctic research. The loss of cooperation comes at a perilous moment for the Arctic, which faces shrinking sea ice, melting permafrost, and the growth of shipping. https://t.co/fb5mE0H9it

Their analysis actually hints at this: in 2017 both the residence time and the variance of sea ice thickness in Fram Strait increased, showing at least “recovery potential”

While it is true that under the current climate the thickest sea ice isn’t likely going to reappear, that is different from a “tipping point” (and no, melting sea ice doesn't contribute to sea level rise)

I don’t really think the paper contributes much to the question of whether or not there exists a “tipping” point w.r.t to Arctic sea ice https://t.co/BN917sMzUc and I wish they hadn’t used the “irreversible” definition of a regime change.

other variables are more “step(ish)” and their change point detection method actually finds a few other steps in the residence time series.

While the disappearance of the thickest ice from Fram Strait and the associated decrease in variance, and sea ice speed, seems to clearly follow a step function in 2007 perhaps justifying the “regime change” terminology,

Apparently not enough to make up for what is lost in “deformation” opportunity. That's interesting

By living a shorter life, sea ice has less of a chance to get deformed and whatever regrows is thinner. The paper doesn’t address the fact that an increase in speed thinning may also increase deformation potentially countering this deformation loss. @PierreRampal

This paper nicely links this change to the thickness distribution measured in Fram Strait and frames it in terms of residence time rather than “age”

This loss of “multi-year” sea ice has previously been reported using satellite observed age e.g. https://t.co/PcGsLTJw5j https://t.co/Zusr2vqr3f or https://t.co/9Ji0BKcAnB (several others)

They find a reduction of “residence” time from 4.3 years to 2.7 years

The reduction of residence times come from the fact that a) more melts in the summer and b) an increase in the speed with which the Transpolar Drift Stream transports sea ice from the Arctic Basin towards Fram Strait.

They find a drop in average thickness that arises mostly from the thickest pieces of sea ice having essentially gone missing after 2007. They attribute this to a change in “residence” time for ice in the Arctic.

It is a very nicely put together paper linking 30 years of sea ice thickness information measured in Fram Strait to what's going on upstream in the Arctic

A few comments on a new Nature paper by colleagues from NPI: @OceanSeaIceNPI https://t.co/UyvfuJOciv

if twitter is mostly about twitter now, maybe a rebrand is in order? meta comes to mind….

Our new paper on Beaufort Sea Ice Variability out in Nature Earth and Environment

PIOMAS Sea Ice Volume updated through August (apologies for the missed July update due to vacation schedule). August Sea Ice Volume 10th on record. Anomalously thick ice in the Eastern Beaufort and along CAA, thinner than normal in the Easter Arctic