Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
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Creator/Editor-In-Chief of . Gizmodo Media Group and Time Inc. alum.
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Tucker: Why did you invade Ukraine?
Putin: Very well, where do I begin?
My father was a relentlessly self-improving boulangerie owner from Belgium with low grade narcolepsy and a penchant for buggery. My mother was a fifteen year old French prostitute named Chloe with webbed…
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Tom Clancy looking down from above stunned that this is actually happening.
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Big update on our story. Our suspicions were correct. This 'missile warehouse' in Western Ukraine was actually a farm in far Eastern Ukraine. The target was destroyed at least a week ago. Entire area has been shelled. We have satellite imagery to prove it
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Dozens Of Dutch F-16s Were Just Freed Up Potentially For Ukraine
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That the Russian military & its much-touted Black Sea Fleet couldn't secure an island 170 miles from its homeport from a war-torn adversary with fixed-wing combat aircraft numbering in the dozens & no real operable Navy is an absolute stunning failure of massive proportions.
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Just a reminder that while everyone is debating who will cough up F-16s for Ukraine, an arguably perfect solution is just sitting mothballed in hangars in Australia:
Australia’s Mothballed F/A-18 Hornets Should Be Given To Ukraine
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US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. No escalation ceiling for US weapons use for Crimean targets. As for what was used here, lots of fingers pointing…
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Plenty of M2 Bradleys to replace losses in Ukraine. We have a surplus. People talk like they're exquisite weapon systems available in tiny numbers or something. Losing a dozen or so in the 1st week of hitting a reinforced Russian front hundreds of miles long is a win, not loss.
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Russia does not possess the weapons or networking capability to hit moving targets like weapons convoys with standoff cruise or ballistic missiles. This means in order for them to interdict or destroy these shipments they will not only need actionable intelligence, but...🧵
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With the Antonovsky bridge in the state it is in and limited water crossing capacity, we could be looking at a mass surrender or worse in Kherson. Russia, already shocked by the mounting losses, could have to confront an unprecedented type of loss in this war so far.
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Hot off the digital press!
Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames
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DoD confirmed to us that the F-22s' callsign "FRANK 01/02" was indeed an homage to American World War One ace Lieutenant Frank Luke Jr, the "Arizona Balloon Buster."
We are updating our post with many new details as we get them:
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We have high res satellite imagery of the attack on Kherson Airbase coming in hot. The entire place is pock-marked, multiple aircraft destroyed. More takeaways to be had. Full-res image will be linked.
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Ukrainian MiG-29 Fighter Appears With Mystery Weapon Pylons
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90 Strykers and another 59 Badleys. This is a huge package:
Stryker Combat Vehicles Will Be Headed To Ukraine From U.S.
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Ukrainian Air Force is operating way farther east than most seem to realize. It's amazing how poorly Russia has performed at destroying Ukraine's air power on the ground and denying access to its own airfields. Satellite imagery tells an incredible story.
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Ukrainian Fighter Pilots Will Get Training On Sweden’s JAS-39 Gripen
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Hmmm where have we heard this before?
"Australia, the US and Ukraine are discussing sending 41 Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 Hornets to Kyiv... rather than sending them to the scrapheap as planned."
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After today, the price of Russia’s invasion needs to go up!
- US should do MiG-29 transfer deal w/Poland ASAP
- Simultaneously announce Ukraine’s next NATO-supplied 4th gen fighter
- Pilot & support crew training begins ASAP (will take many months)
🧵🪡
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Remember Hezbollah is sitting on a stock of anti-ship missiles. They scored a hit on a Sa’ar 5 class corvette off Lebanon 17 years ago. Their capabilities have evolved significantly since then thanks to Iran. They also have many types of loitering munitions that have been used…
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Made a deal with a guy that just took over an entire military district at gunpoint with his private army, shot down aircraft, called reason for going to war baseless, & was deemed an outright traitor. Shows you the state of Russian affairs at the moment. Amazing & telling turn
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Amazing how quickly they declassified the MQ-9's MTS-B sensor footage of the Su-27 collision but we still haven't even gotten a single still frame of the 3 objects NORAD shot down over North America during the great balloon hunt.
Quite telling.
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🧵This image was taken on Feb. 19 showing Russia's A-50 Mainstay AEW&C jet in its usual spot at Machulishchy AB south of Minsk. Reports state that it was damaged in a drone attack today which would...
(PHOTO © 2023 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION)
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Shots of USS Carney putting up a wall against Houthi drones and cruise missiles.
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Big revelations this week about balloons spying on US. These aren't really revelations. Two years ago I laid out exactly this was happening, why it was happening, its historical precedent, that it was directly conflated with UAP, and that was a big problem
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MiG-29s are focus, which has been unfortunate, because what Ukraine really needs is more air defense systems they already operate, including highly mobile ones that can reposition quickly and keep Russian airpower forced into the MANPADS envelope. Big feature on this coming soon!
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Remember, every time a anti-ship ballistic missile, and in most cases anti-ship cruise missile, was fired by Houthi forces, we new its launch location via spaced based infrared warning satellites. We have been watching these launch patterns for weeks. This is in addition...
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Man the F-35's supply chain arrangement just got battered at Sea-Air-Space. The whole just in time concept is not a feature, it's a bug. They need parts on shelves, especially if the F-35 is used for its intended purpose — combat against a major foe. The 7-11 stocking model is a…
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One of the coolest shots ever taken of the Shuttle Carrier Aircraft and the Orbiter mated up and airborne. Shot by NASA photog Carla Thomas inverted in a Hornet I believe. The folks at Armstrong Flight Research Center were pretty proud of this one the last time I was down there.
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I am going to address this because I am getting asked this by many concerned folks on here and other platforms:
Q: "are we at war here?"
A: "No, we are waking the fuck up."
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The cries for western air defenses around Ukrainian population centers will become much louder after today. Cruise missiles are a challenge though even for modern western air defense systems and if certain developments occur (more on this today), Patriot will be needed...
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🚨👀BREAKING!
B-21 Raider Has Flown For The First Time
Check out our story on this historical moment, including video of it taking to the skies:
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Cutting the power and running away from Bagram Air Base weeks before the final pull-out goes down as one of the strangest military decisions I have ever seen. Choosing a single point of failure, an airport with one runway, for such a sensitive mission. Just beyond strange.
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Australia’s Mothballed F/A-18 Hornets Should Be Given To Ukraine
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The balls on those Hind crews. Good god.
This is playing out like a damn Star Wars movie. Surreal. Full report to come.
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Ukraine situation report: Czech Republic to transfer 56 upgraded BMP-1 armored vehicles to Ukraine
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AP confirms via DoD sources that not one but TWO Il-76s were shot down roughly 50 miles south of Kyiv during a major airborne assault operation. We continue to update our original post:
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AIM-7 Sparrow/RIM-7 Sea Sparrow is not new for Ukraine, they are being integrated onto the SA-11 Buk mobile air defense systems to solve the dwindling missile stocks issue. From Jan:
Good lesson in not throwing away your surplus weaponry just to get it…
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BREAKING!
Sunken Russian cruiser Moskva was loaded with Kyber Crystalls for Putin's Death Star!
Source: Sources.
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Ukraine Confirms JDAM Precision Bombs Are Now Being Used In Combat
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James Cameron has the best take on the loss of the Titan I have heard yet. Hard to think of a better source on all this. Check it out:
‘Titanic’ director James Cameron on the ‘catastrophic implosion’ of Titan submersible: “I’m struck by the similarity of the Titanic disaster itself, where the captain was repeatedly warned about ice ahead of his ship and yet he steamed at full speed into an ice field."
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Ever sense more advanced NATO armor was possibly in the works for Ukraine, I stressed that we will be seeing burned out/destroyed examples, potentially a lot of them, and that is going to be the reality that may be a tough pill to swallow for some.
These things are not…
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It's hard to comprehend how stupid Russia's 'vengeance strikes' for the Kerch Bridge attack truly were, and this is outside of the blatant targeting of civilians. Let me break it down:
1.) They wasted what precious cruise missiles they have left against targets...
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F-22 popping flares post stall is really incredible to behold. Very Russian-like! This happened at the Wings Over Wayne Air Show this weekend. Great job F-22 Demo team for bringing this to the act!
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State Dept. FMS approvals for fighter buys from both Turkey and Greece dropped at the same time tonight, which is interesting in itself.
Greece approved for 40 F-35As
Turkey approved for 40 Block 70 F-16C/Ds and 79 F-16V upgrade kits for its existing Vipers.
If these execute,…
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I often get asked how to know what OSINT sources are trustworthy and not. PRO TIP: If they always have every detail & every answer, RUN. If they often highlight what they don’t know over what they do and caveat things religiously, it’s a good sign.
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Exclusive👀:
Moment Of Drone Attack That Destroyed Il-76s At Russian Base Seen In Infrared Image
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Finally, this is why concentrating on rushing Ukraine FAMILIAR ground-based air defenses (not focusing on MiG-29s), which can fortify the west, is essential to keeping Russian tactical airpower out of that region & shipments flowing. All you need to know:
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Southern Military Distract has nuclear weapons within its area of responsibility. This doesn't mean they will or even can easily be used. But chaos in the chain of command and control hierarchy is a very dangerous environment for those weapons to exist in.
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The threat of cruise missile attacks on the Black Sea Fleet in port has become very real. These missiles (Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG/Neptune land attack variant) use infrared imaging with scene/imaging matching for terminal homing. Hence why Russia painted their ships to break up…
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Scoop🚨👀
Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine
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Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program (capacity dependent) or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting iran in other ways, especially economically. If the latter, oil…
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There is a huge deterrence factor to these arms transfers to Ukraine. It's not just about applied combat capabilities. It is about setting up the situation where it becomes harder & harder for Moscow see any form of a viable military outcome...
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Did a shit Russian air-to-air missile really save us from leaping toward WWIII?
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Some confusion of why an F-22 would take down a target over Canada. Aside from vastly superior A2A capabilities over CF-18, especially in radar and ceiling, U.S. aircraft work over Canada for NORAD duties on occasion. One team. Nothing new there.
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The shot just fired by this platform at the OSINT community & flight tracking accounts is stunning. Using blanket rules to deal with a single unique situation is telling. Open source flight tracking has become a critical tool for reporting on events & important subjects.
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Oh my god, the No Fly Zone bullshit again. One-way ticket to World War III. People in leadership positions tossing this around like it's just some convenient option is insane.
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Ukraine Situation Report: France Sending SCALP-EG Cruise Missiles
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I are so excited to announce that The War Zone is now its own site and it has a brand new address! Thank you so much to all of our readers from all of us for making this possible.
A letter from me on the change and what's to come:
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Major emerging threat from Russia in space is reportedly what this intel alert to Congress is about. Let's get out our bingo card:
1.) Fractional Orbital Bombardment System
2.) Orbital nuclear weapons delivery platform
3.) New orbital ASAT capability
Take your pick they all fit.
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B-2 Spirit Skimming The Miami Skyline Looks Menacing As Hell
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Ukrainian forces will end up training NATO forces once this is done.
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They will need to be willing to risk manned aircraft in highly contested airspace and/or special operations forces deployed deep in territory that is not even near areas under Russia's control. This greatly complicates achieving the objective of stopping even some...
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F-16 just turned 50. Amazing. So much history, but let's not forget what could have been with the Block 60 F-16E/F 'Desert Falcon." Full delta, lots of gas. F-16XL gets all the love, but this thing would have been pretty amazing. They ended up going with a less ambitious config.
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Source: One of the greatest film monologues of all time
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Production of in-demand Javelin missiles set to almost double:
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Nobody on CNN's 5 person panel covering this military conflict has any idea if Ukraine has a ballistic missile defense system. One guy said they do have Javelin 'surface to air' missiles. Amazing. Now talking about knocking down a missile with a Stinger.
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Juice was among our favorite people to interview. His insights were fantastic, his passion was electric. Thomas grew a bond with him over the war.
Blue skies and tailwinds Juice.
Ukraine’s Outspoken MiG-29 Pilot “Juice” Killed During Mission
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One source has told me the amount of equipment Ukraine will seize in this operation, if they indeed push to the Dnipro river banks in Kherson, will be totally unprecedented. Tons of trapped equipment that can't cross back to the other side of the river.
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If Hezbollah attacks there is nothing in history that will compare to how heavily taxed an integrated air defense system will be like then. Israel’s IADS is the most advanced and layered on earth, but the scale and variety of what will be sent south is unlike anything we’ve seen.
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Bradley's 25mm and properly paired ammo remains deadly against Soviet/Russian MBTs. Lots of caveats, but its a lesson that goes back to Desert Storm. M2 is proving to be an absolute top capability for Ukrainian Army.
Footage of 25mm Bushmaster chaingun fire from a Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV slamming into a Russian T-90M in Stepove.
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We have images of the 148th Fighter Wing F-16C that intercepted and shot down the "octagonal object" over Lake Heron landing back at Madison missing an AIM-9X. We continue to live update our piece here:
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HIMARS/M270 and GMLRS get all the attention, but M982 Exacilber guided 155mm artillery rounds for Ukraine are a HUGE deal. They can be deployed for use in far more locations which could really make things tough for the enemy. It is a new wild card. 155mm Howitzer teams...
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The whole Prigozhin living out his golden years in Belarus thing is like telling a little kid his old dog is going to a beautiful farm when really they are going on a one way trip to the vet.
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Exclusive!🚨👀
U-2 Spy Planes Snooped On Chinese Surveillance Balloon
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It's just amazing how vulnerable all that Russian armor would be to a major military power.
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Secretive American stocks of Soviet air defense systems are headed o Ukraine: report
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One of my most stolen shots. It shows up daily on Facebook and Instagram. Ya gotta laugh! It also hangs in some pretty cool places in an official capacity. Bone rocketing out of Nellis under some very ominous skies:
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Must watch. A big risk taker here telling the truth in the face of the same old bravado-filled talking points. Truth is seeping in, now deep in uncharted territory
Life comes at you fast: pundits on Russian TV realize that their military is failing and their country is in trouble. They are starting to play the blame game. Some of them finally understand that their genocidal denial of the Ukrainian identity isn't working in Russia's favor.
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Plan To Train Ukrainian Pilots On U.S. Jets Passed By House Of Representatives
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If the IDF's 99% of 300 missiles/drones intercepted/failed to hit Israel number is anywhere in the vicinity of the final tally it is one of the greatest military technological accomplishments of an era. This is total, combined Israel+U.S.+other allies figure.
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I'm fascinated with Twin Tower photos. They were really impressive sort of brutalist structures in person. Some shots are just amazing. Like this one, taken during construction showing the elevator shafts and the skeleton of the buildings. It's like something out of Blade Runner.
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Belbek Air Base in Crimea, with some unconfirmed reports/videos saying it was on fire possibly due to a strike, is such a juicy target. Main ramp just packed wing-to-wing with Flankers. This was today:
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Couple thoughts on Ukraine from our angle + OSINT:
1.) Amazing I have never seen a Ukrainian fuel truck or fueling point on the battlefield. For how much stuff is out there, even during the fall offensive, this is wild.
2.) Still have never seen a Phoenix Ghost kamikaze drone...
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Some critical things to keep in mind with this terrible situation, and no, I have no answers to give, just some context:
As we have stated many times over the years, munitions fail. The best munitions on the planet costing millions apiece fail. Rudimentary artillery rockets…
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of these shipments. Otherwise, they will be limited to standoff attacks like the one today that take hours to prepare (likely days for them) and sacrifice standoff weapons that are increasingly in short supply, some of which won't even hit their targets...
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Russia learned all the wrong lessons about the application of airpower from Syria. You are seeing that play out in front of your eyes.
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Most memorable sci-fi vehicle moments from TV and film of all time.
I'll start:
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This is Sniper targeting pod air-to-air footage, the same sensor that was used in the Chinese balloon and unidentified object shoot downs that the DoD says is too sensitive technologically to share even photos from. Yeah, well that clearly is BS as we said at the time.
#USINDOPACOM
Statement on
#PRC
Unprofessional Intercept: "A People’s Republic of China J-11 pilot executed an unsafe intercept of a U.S. Air Force B-52 aircraft which was lawfully conducting routine operations over the South China Sea..."
Read more⬇️
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Brimstone precision-guided missiles are headed to Ukraine within weeks:
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There will be an absolute avalanche of military hardware headed to Ukraine if this gets signed into law.
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Wonder how long Iran’s support/sea base ship that has been sitting in the Red Sea for a long time and now i believe may be in the Gulf of Aden, very likely a conduit of intel for Houthi anti-ship attacks, will be above the water? We are rapidly heading toward a direct…
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"It will supply Ukraine for the next phase of campaign. Massive windfall. Some of it has been sitting for a long time already. It's not going anywhere and they are not destroying this stuff. High-end stuff. SAMs, EW, armor."
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If the U.K. still has ALARM in its stockpile, which I do not believe they do (supposedly destroyed!), that would be an idea weapon for Ukraine. As an anti-radiation missile, its ability to linger over a target area via parachute provides more coverage/dwell time than HARM.
It…
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Never a dull moment in UFO land! Ross Coulthart — the journalist who interviewed whistle blower and intel veteran David Grusch, who claims the US has UFOs in its possession — said the US has a UFO so big it could not be moved and had to build a structure around it in a foreign…
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Every day this war goes on Ukraine's kinetic reach expands in magnitude and frequency. Taking the war to Moscow IS the goal. Little drones will turn into way more drones of increasingly complexity, then into cruise missiles, then ballistic missiles...
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Behold the F-22 Raptor doing its raptoring thing up high. Some wild slow-speed nose pointing capability here...
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Four Italian frogmen exit the Salvatore Todaro, A Type 212 SSK. This has to be one of the coolest submarine shots of all time!
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