Austral Research
@AustralRes_En
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Analysis on energy and critical minerals. Covering Vaca Muerta, the Lithium Triangle and global macro trends from the Southern Cone.
Joined February 2026
Argentina just approved a new labor reform under Milei's leadership. Lets break it down some key features and impacts for the mining and energy industries: ▶️ Flexible hiring and firing: Extends probationary periods to 6 months (up to 8-12 months for smaller firms), eases
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U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum: "There's been an attack on American energy in this country, but even longer than that there's been an attack on mining in our country … Just like President Trump says; 'drill, baby drill' we've got to get back to 'mine, baby mine.'"
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China's Central Bank keeps buying gold and dumping US Debt. The PBOC's gold holdings totaled 74.19 million troy ounces by the end of January, up slightly from 74.15 million in the previous month. The value of gold reserves also surged to $369.58 billion, from $319.45 billion
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12/ So, to wrap up: Punta Colorada as the export hub, VMOS for oil, and Argentina LNG for gas form a trifecta that could push energy exports above $18B by 2026, consolidating Argentina as a net energy exporter with an estimated $8–12B annual surplus to help finance future
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11/ Let me put this clearly: Argentina's mining future is huge too, but it still needs a big infrastructure push that will take time to scale, while Vaca Muerta's pipeline build‑out is already gaining momentum.
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10/ Mining? It's growing but still smaller: 2025 exports hit a record $6B (up 29%), driven by lithium and gold as Argentina's now the 3rd-largest lithium producer, eyeing 260k tons LCE/year by 2026.
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9/ Compare to other sectors: Agribusiness has long been Argentina's king (soy, corn, wheat) exports with ~$35-40B annually, making up half the country's total exports. But energy's catching up fast. Vaca Muerta could surpass agri by 2030 with $30B in exports, turning energy
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8/ VMOS alone could generate $15B+ annually in oil exports once at full tilt, according to YPF's CEO (@HoracioMarin_ok), while LNG could adds billions more as Vaca Muerta overall eyed for $18B exports by 2026. That's foreign currency flooding in, stabilizing the peso and funding
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7/ Economically? These projects are USD rainmakers. Argentina's energy exports hit $11.1B in 2025 (up 13% YoY), driving a record $7.8B surplus. For 2026, projections show $8.5-10B surplus, possibly $12.5B with Vaca Muerta's boom. By 2030, energy exports could be bringing in
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6/ Capacity starts at 180,000 bpd in Phase 1, then ramps up to 390,000–550,000 bpd by 2027, with potential expansion to 700,000 bpd by adding more pumps. The project is already over 50% complete as of mid‑January 2026 and will be critical to unlocking further growth in Vaca
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5/ On the oil side, with 437 km from Allen (Neuquén) to Punta Colorada, VMOS pipeline (backed by major Vaca Muerta's producers) is the $2-3B pipeline beast unlocking crude exports.
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4/ But the real enabler is Punta Colorada in Río Negro: Argentina's emerging energy export hub on the Atlantic. Deep waters here allow large tankers to dock, and the terminal will have 5–6 storage tanks with a combined capacity of around 600,000–630,000 m³ (about 4 Mboe). Tied
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3/ FLNG units will sit offshore Punta Colorada, supplied by a new ~500–600 km gas pipeline from Neuquén and a fractionation plant tripling its current capacity to supply the export market.
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2/ The monster LNG project led by @YPFoficial, with partners @eni and @XRG_official (ADNOC), plans to ship Vaca Muerta gas to global markets through two floating vessels (FLNG), each with 6 Mtpa of capacity (12 Mtpa total, scalable to 18 Mtpa). First exports could hit as early
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Argentina is quietly building an energy export machine. Three projects are at the core: - Argentina LNG - Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline (VMOS) - Punta Colorada export terminal Dates, capacities, dollar impact and how this compares to agribusiness and mining. Buckle up, thread
🇦🇷 Argentina is making big energy moves. YPF just signed of a binding Joint Development Agreement with Eni and XRG to liquefy and export 12 Mtpa of Vaca Muerta gas by 2030, scalable to 18 Mtpa. The project aims to position Argentina as a global LNG player and export hub. $YPF
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🇦🇷 Argentina is making big energy moves. YPF just signed of a binding Joint Development Agreement with Eni and XRG to liquefy and export 12 Mtpa of Vaca Muerta gas by 2030, scalable to 18 Mtpa. The project aims to position Argentina as a global LNG player and export hub. $YPF
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Emerging Markets Start 2026 with the Best Inflow in 20 Years. Global emerging markets equity funds (mutual funds, ETFs, or institutional funds) have accumulated over $34B so far this year. The best start since 2004 and well above the historical average. This is significant:
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🛢️🇧🇷 Petrobras $PBR closed 2025 with record 4Q25 production of 3.11MMboed (+18% Y/Y) and record quarterly crude exports of about 1MMbpd, beating its full‑year production guidance, while refinery utilization stayed above 90% in 2025. $PBR also added 1.7 billion boe to proved
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