日本2年期国债拍卖出现自2009年以来最弱需求。投资者因担心日本央行加息而回避国债——流动性或将转向股市，但收益率上升可能很快限制涨势。Japan’s 2-year bond auction just drew its weakest demand since 2009. Investors are shunning JGBs on BoJ hike fears—liquidity may rotate into equities.

沪深300指数连续4天上涨并创下成交额新高——但这波行情是由流动性驱动，而非基本面。估值已高于10年均值，RSI显示超买，融资融券激增。市场面临剧烈波动风险。CSI 300 surges 4 days straight with record turnover—but it’s liquidity-driven, not fundamentals. Valuations above 10-yr avg.

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中国军工股热潮遇到现实：尽管股价飙升、全球雄心勃勃，但业绩却令人失望。市场开始质疑，这波上涨是基本面支撑还是纯粹投机。China’s defense earnings disappoint despite soaring stock hype and global ambitions. Markets questioning if rally is built on fundamentals or just speculation.

美股在连续一周下跌后反弹，美联储主席鲍威尔释放迄今最强烈信号，暗示央行正准备重启降息。市场预计9月将会降息。U.S. stocks rebound after a week of losses as Powell delivers his strongest signal yet that the Fed is preparing to restart rate cuts. Markets expect a September rate cut.

日本20年期国债收益率飙升至26年来新高。7月参议院选举带来政治不确定性——反对党推动减税，可能扩大借贷并冲击市场。Japan’s 20 year surges as political uncertainty from the July upper-house race looms large—opposition parties push tax cuts that could swell borrowing and rattle markets.

特朗普对鲍威尔怒不可遏！2025年美国已有446家大型企业申请破产，比2020年疫情时期高出12%。企业难以在高利率下生存。Trump is furious at Powell! The US has seen 446 large bankruptcy filings in 2025, 12% above pandemic levels in 2020. Companies can’t survive the high rates.

中国通缩风险加剧，尽管购房限制放宽、房贷成本下降、银行支持开发商，消费者仍倾向于储蓄而非投资房地产。China’s deflationary risks worsen as consumers prefer saving over property investment despite eased purchase rules, lower mortgage costs, and bank support for developers.

为什么在经济低迷的情况下A股还在上涨？监管机构正迫使养老金提高股票配置——这是一场冒险的政治赌注，而不是市场选择。 Why are A-shares rallying despite a sluggish economy? Regulators are pressuring pension funds to boost equity exposure—a risky political bet, not a market one.

美国股市正越来越像互联网泡沫。霍华德·马克斯警告称，“七巨头”如今占标普500指数的32%，是五年前的两倍。U.S. stocks are looking alot like the dot com bubble. Howard Marks warns that the Mag7 now make up 32% of the S&P 500—double their share five years ago.

阻止中国国企终结的竟然是个台湾人？林正义为逃避兵役，抱着篮球游到中国并改名林毅夫。尽管受过美国教育，他长期反对自由市场，支持计划经济。Taiwanese-born Economist Lin Zhengyi, fled military service, swam to China and renamed to Lin Yifu, has long been against Chinese free markets.

去全球化正在发生。中美航运量已降至两年来的最低点，而特朗普对中国商品维持的55%关税正在持续发酵。贸易战是零和的。De-globalization is happening. China–US shipping traffic has dropped to a two-year low as Trump’s 55% tariffs on Chinese goods continue to bite. Trade wars are zero sum.

7月中国资本外流创纪录达580亿美元，为2010年以来最大。内地投资者通过南向债券通涌入港股和离岸债券，而外资则抛售中国债券。China saw record $58B outflows in July. Mainland investors rushed into HK stocks & offshore bonds via Southbound Bond Connect as foreigners dumped Chinese debt.

2025年全球市值排名前10的大公司，有8家公司来自美国(英伟达、微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书、博通、特斯拉)，科技股继续主导。说明美国资本市场和科技创新，在全球市值榜上，具有极高集中度。亚洲仅沙特阿美和台积电入选。腾讯市值≈0.69万亿美元。英伟达市值≈4.40万亿美元。腾讯≈英伟达的15.7%。

1992年，特朗普的广场酒店债台高筑。郑裕彤出手注资1亿美元，夺得控制权。总统都佩服的郑老板怎么也想不到快进到2025年，新世界却濒临破产。In 1992, Trump’s Plaza Hotel was drowning in debt. Cheng Yu-tung injected $100M and took control. Today, New World Dev is on the brink of bankruptcy.

在亚洲股市，很难挖掘到英伟达(NVDA)和AMD这样的AI股票。也许以前腾讯有这种潜力。不过，美国越来越像黑手党，而特朗普就是老大。NVDA和AMD，预计将向美国上交对华芯片销售的21亿美元分成。 $NVDA and $AMD are set to hand over $2.1B in revenue shares to the government from China chip sales.

中国房地产，离触底还有遥远距离。所以，A股和港股房地产板块，目前不是底部。截至2025年7月，中国房地产企业境外债券违约1470亿美元(人民币1.07万亿元)，涉及62家房企。中国城市房价平均跌幅达50%。极端案例：青岛即墨区蓝谷，岭海逸景湾小区房价，从2017年每平米2万元，跌至目前2700元，跌幅86.5%。

A股和港股，处于十字路口。中国经济增长势头正在放缓？中国7月份净新增贷款下降约500亿元，为20年来首次下降。这是衡量中国银行贷款情况的关键指标，也是整体经济活动的反映。相比之下，年初新增贷款净额增加约5万亿元人民币。原因是借款人的净偿还额，表明中国家庭和企业对于承担新债务变得更加犹豫。

巴菲特不是天才—只是逻辑清晰。他的联合健康投资很明显：医疗保健板块在标普500中的权重处于30年来最低，按市盈率计算已是第二便宜的。Buffett isn’t a genius—just logical. His UnitedHealth investment was obvious: healthcare’s S&P weight is at a 30-year low and now the 2nd cheapest sector.

长期中国多头达利欧的桥水基金刚刚抛售了其全部价值14亿美元的美股中概股投资——包括阿里巴巴、京东、拼多多、百度等。Longtime China bull Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater just dumped its entire $1.4B portfolio of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks — including Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu & more.

耐克粉丝愤怒不已！在2013年公开分手失去坎耶·韦斯特投奔阿迪达斯后，如今陈冠希也走上同样的道路，耐克还将他告上法庭。Nike fans are furious! After losing Kanye West to Adidas in a public 2013 breakup, the Swoosh is now suing Edison Chen as he follows the same path to Adidas.