Tom @ Apptopia
@ApptopiaInsight
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Mobile app data is real customer activity. I provide daily insights on the underlying business of public companies through @apptopia data.
Boston, MA
Joined June 2023
Feeling bad for $SOFI shareholders this AM, especially because our app data pointed to such a positive quarter. I recognize this is small comfort, but loan originations were way higher than what consensus expected, so our preview was correct. For all of you that are big into
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I forgot that I had given a quick $NFLX preview on here too. I hope some folks spotted this before earnings.
Our MAU data captured $NFLX subs very well for years until the password-sharing crackdown. Once that finished, our data was right back on. For 4Q, our MAU growth is looking slightly better than consensus. 1Q25 is off to a great start as Squid Game effect lingers into January.
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I feel like I have waited enough time now so that I do not appear to be gloating. Our data pointed our customers in the right direction on $NFLX. Feels good for a preview to come through. $SOFI is next!
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Another big riser has been Lemon8. Similar to what I said on REDnote, it has added just under 2m DAUs, which is a lot, but way less than TikTok's DAUs
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I spent a lot of time on the TikTok ban and its impact. Didn't occur to me that people would go find another Chinese app to use instead. Our data shows REDNote added about 2.4m users globally, which is a lot, but not actually that many in the context of how big TikTok is.
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Our MAU data captured $NFLX subs very well for years until the password-sharing crackdown. Once that finished, our data was right back on. For 4Q, our MAU growth is looking slightly better than consensus. 1Q25 is off to a great start as Squid Game effect lingers into January.
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$NFLX reports on Monday and just had to share this with you. This is daily DAUs since 1/1/23 and look at the spikes from Tyson-Paul and Squid Game 2.
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Working on my earnings previews for customers and this one made me think of @DataDInvesting. Our app downloads data correlates well with $SOFI loan origination volume. In 3Q we saw positive YoY growth while the market expected a decline. In 4Q, the accel in downloads growth
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However, if you focus on $COIN's power users, you can see that their growth rate of Sessions was below that of all users in December. Power users usually move before all users, so this could imply weakness ahead for $COIN.
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I think $COIN is the most interesting one on our data right now. App sessions are taking off, but power users are flashing a warning signal. Our aggregate data (below) shows a similar trend to consensus, albeit a bit stronger.
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Let the earnings previews continue! On to Fintech, a sector that performed massively well in 4Q. Below is YoY growth of app sessions on a weekly basis. Note the divergence in performance between the top ( $COIN and $HOOD) and $SQ at the bottom.
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$DKNG specifically looks pretty good in 4Q on our data when it comes to MUPs. Our data cannot tell you anything about net-win margin, so you are on your own when it comes to EBITDA. But people are still using the app more and more.
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Happy Monday Morning! Let's try to ignore bond yields and look at app data for sportsbooks instead (sorry for the delay @hellahungry78). It is pretty clear that $DKNG outperformed $FLUT starting mid-Nov. Hence, the weak $FLUT numbers might not apply to $DKNG.
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Regarding $MTCH, @Tinder is what moves the needle, so this is what we are seeing. which is more deceleration in DAUs YoY in 4Q. Consensus is the dotted teal line, and honestly looks wrong to me, I don't think the market expects acceleration in Payers. But still, a weak 4Q.
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While $BMBL DAU growth still decelerated YoY, it looks to be tracking slightly better than consensus.
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We take requests, so the next sector up is Dating (by request from @IdanSmartView). Dating DAUs generally saw YoY decelerate in December, with @bumble looking slightly better than peers.
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$UBER was the laggard last time we looked (no surprise that Uber Eats looks bad), but the last two weeks of Dec showed some pick up in YoY growth. Still our YoY growth is tracking below consensus in 4Q.
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Hi everyone, 4Q is over so let's start looking at sector performance. I posted about $DASH $UBER $CART and $LYFT a month ago, so might as well start there. Solid YoY growth across the board.
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