Andrew Greenland
@AndrewG_PhD
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Tariffs, trade, and their effects on the US past and present. Associate Editor at the JEP (@AEAJournals). @NCState_ARE / @NCStatePoole
Joined April 2020
Let's put a 25% tariff into context. Here's a (brief) US tariff history back to 1900. In 1972 the US average tariff rate was ~6%. We cut tariffs to facilitate development (GSP), control drug production (ATPA), and facilitate integration (GATT/WTO). Then in 1985.
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RT @NCUSCR: U.S.-China tariffs hit historic highs in 2025—what’s behind the latest surge?. Join Claire Reade (@CSIS) and @AndrewG_PhD (@NCS….
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Every year this gets announced, and every year I think hmm they probably don't mean me, huh? Too bad. Anyone else . Go apply!.
Interested in international economics? Come join us here on the beautiful @dartmouth campus with an abundance of people thinking about these issues.
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RT @TrebAllen: The Globalization Cluster at Dartmouth is hiring a pre-doctoral fellow for a two year position starting this summer or fall.….
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RT @gordon_h_hanson: We have a late predoctoral fellowship opening in the Reimagining the Economy Project @Kennedy_School. Join Dani Rodrik….
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Very excited for the upcoming workshop on Environmental and Agricultural issues in International Economics at @NCState on May 8 and 9. Please let me know if you are in the area and want to attend!
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RT @FedericoHuneeus: 🚨Workshop Alert🚨. Disaggregating National Accounts (DNA): From Macro to Micro. The workshop will convene academics and….
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RT @StefaniaGaretto: The deadline for submissions to the 6th Women in International Economics Conference is fast approaching! Send us your….
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RT @TimothyTTaylor: I accepted long ago that my work as Managing Editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives would happen behind the sce….
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RT @Lpuzzell: 📢 Call for Papers! 📢.Submit your work to METC 📄✨.📍 Melbourne 🗓️ July 21-23.Keynote Speaker: Paola Conconi.🛑 Deadline: April 1….
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Off to @WIeconomics for a trade day workshop tomorrow! .Gonna be a big day with LOTS of tariff discussion!
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RT @FedericoHuneeus: Another fantastic Devils and Wolves Trade Workshop, joint by @DukeU @DukeEcon and @NCState @NCStatePoole . Check out t….
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It goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway) that this is stunningly fast work . Bad policy being called out in real time. You love to see it.
🚨We just released a paper examining the long-terms economic impacts of "Liberation Day" tariffs. In summary: while these tariffs may help reduce the trade deficit, they will impose significant costs on the U.S. economy after retaliation by trade partners.
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If you want to see this kind of mechanism is at play in other settings see Crucini (94) Irwin (98) Greenland & Lopresti (2024) Greenland, Lake, & Lopresti (2025)
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While the Trump Tariffs 2.0 are still reversible, the real issue is that we have demonstrated that there are no (de facto) guard-rails constraining the whims of Presidential tariff policy, and the effects on prices, supply chains, and employment are already in motion.
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While specific tariffs are less prevalent today the core concern -- the risks associated with increasing tariffs on a weakening economy -- is the same. The difference is now imports are 3x as large a share of GDP and supply chains are way more integrated.
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The tariffs have been linked to lower productivity growth (Bond et al. 2013, and effects through IO linkages (Crucini & Kahn, 96 among numerous other outcomes.
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The extent to which fixed-exchange rates under the gold standard hurt (e.g. Eichengreen & Sachs 85/86, and forced deflation ( and not devaluation meant that as the economic collapse got worse, tariff rates got higher and higher.
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As prices collapsed the effective tariff rate jumped dramatically. How? If sugar prices fell by 50% --> the tariff rate doubles to 168%! Industries differed in their exposure (for a given level of tariff x-axis, deflation bit harder for goods high on the y-axis.)
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We are used to hearing about 25% tariffs, but in this era the *majority* of tariffs were "specific" tariffs. This means they are defined as $/unit not % of value. For example Sugar cost $0.032 /lb with tariffs of $0.027/lb --> 84% tariff rate. So what?.
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