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SEC Charges Archegos and its Founder with Massive Market Manipulation @JoinCommonstock .

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As counterparty risk increases, the willingness to step up decreases. Many commodity trading houses find themselves in a precarious position where they need to weigh the benefits of earning unusually wide spreads with the risks of not knowing the other side.

Commodity Shocks in 2022 - Dallas Fed

As counterparties may no longer be able to serve their commitments, risk increases (example: Nickel on the LME). While futures and options in commodities are extremely well regulated, counterparty risk in over-the-counter as well as physical markets is fairly obscure.

That comes at the cost of a much longer shipping routes which require longer loan contracts. Insurance for the same volume - as shipping time increases - goes up too. Both factors impact the willingness and ability of commodity traders to ensure liquidity in the market.

One of the recent phenomenon is that trade routes of commodities have gotten longer; suddenly, Europe doesn't receive its oil from St. Petersburg, but has to turn to the Middle East instead.

Commodities & Financial Stability. Increasingly so, commodities don't only impact transactions on the futures side, but also start to affect the consumer as well as the financial system at large. Financial Stability Board

Commodities & Financial Stability @JoinCommonstock .

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This absence of perfect, permanent solutions is characteristic of pendulums – it’s why they swing. And after many decades of globalization and cost minimization, I think we’re about to find investment opportunities in the swing toward reliable supply.".

"If you substitute the words “offshoring” and “domestic sourcing” for “free markets” and “regulation,” then this passage just as accurately describes the choice between the cheapest sourcing and the most secure sourcing. .

Lastly, I'd like to steal a section from Howard Marks' latest Memo: The Pendulum in International Affairs

Costco's 43x NTM P/E multiple is quite telling as it pertains to where the economy and consumer habits stand at the moment. As goods become more expensive, people have to be increasingly conscious of their spending. Consequently, the market favors high FCF, anti-cyclical equities

As consumers trade-down, investors will likely continue to think about increasing portfolio quality with companies that have shown a proven ability to pass along input costs.

Consumer Segments' Changing Behavior - HBR

Japan's draft relief measures include higher fuel aid, extra budget

Counter-intuitively, while central banks try to address concerns about higher prices via a demand shock, fiscal dominance may well lead to transfer payments that exacerbate price pressures.

As Indonesia bans Palm Oil exports starting April 28 (largest producer at 56% of total exports), food security will play an increasingly important role as it pertains to global consumer sentiment.

4.) It’s always dangerous to try to learn too much from the performance of a single organization — even the most successful companies are bound to experience setbacks and disappointments.