Analytic
@Analytic_Trader
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The numbers tell the story. Numbers - Process - Clarity. Not financial advice. Applied statistical methods for gaining clarity into the financial markets.
Joined September 2016
2026 Market Outlook Summary (as of December 16, 2025) S&P 500 (SPX): Expected +9% to +14% return, as the historical midterm-year weakness and elevated sentiment/crowding risks are largely offset by the strong liquidity tailwind from the end of Fed QT and supportive technical
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Trading Process: Market Cycle Confluence [Direction, Momentum, Timing)-> Market Condition/Bond Market Condition/Liquidity Condition (Monetary Mechanics) Confluence -> Macro Theme (Dominant Market Driver) -> Reason for Market Behavior
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Dot-Com Crash (2000) vs. AI Trade Decline (2025) The 2000 Dot-Com Crash ended a speculative internet bubble, with the NASDAQ peaking at 5,048.62 (March 10, 2000) before plummeting ~78% to ~1,114 by October 2002, wiping out trillions and bankrupting many unprofitable dot-com
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Major Critical Market Factors and Drivers for 2026 1) Presidential Cycle Weakness: 2026 is a midterm year (Year 2), historically the weakest in the 4-year cycle with an average S&P 500 return of just +4.0% since 1950, often marked by volatility and drawdowns due to political
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Asset Price Prediction: The prediction from Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer suggests Bitcoin could reach $1 billion by 2038, based on a combination of the stock-to-flow model (emphasizing BTC's scarcity post-halvings) and a demand model tied to network growth and adoption. To
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Asset Correlation Table: Bitcoin (BTC) and stock market correlations refer to the statistical relationship between their price movements, typically measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient on a scale from -1 (perfect inverse movement) to +1 (perfect synchronized
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Market Update: 12/12/25 Equity indices down led by tech: SPX and especially NDX are falling mainly because large-cap tech is weak, as investors reassess stretched valuations and heavy AI-related capex. AVGO earnings as the catalyst: Broadcom dropped ~10% after earnings signaled
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Oct 10th BTC Liquidity Crisis Event: Trigger + amplification: A U.S. tariff announcement on China sparked a risk-off move that was amplified by Binance-specific failures (collateral depegs, oracle issues, and sudden liquidity withdrawal), turning a macro shock into a
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Probability Scenario Table: Here’s an illustrative scenario table for the 5 stocks through end of 2026, with: 3 scenarios: Bear, Base, Bull A rough probability for each scenario Approximate total return range (price + dividends) vs. today Rough annualized return equivalent All
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5 Year Survival Probabilities: “Survival probability” here means: probability the company does not default/bankrupt over 5 years (credit‑risk sense), not that the stock goes up. Values are approximate and illustrative, based on long‑term average 5‑year default rates by rating
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The critical question for the market in 2026 is will the Fed start QE this year and in what Q will it begin?
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Probability Table for Fed QE Restart in 2026 Quarters Based on aggregated insights from financial analysts, market rumors, and expert commentary (e.g., Deutsche Bank predicting Q1, Man Group tying it to the new Fed chair appointment around Q2, and broader discussions linking it
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4 Quadrants of the Fed Balance Sheet Liquidity Cycle: The Fed Balance Sheet Liquidity Cycle refers to how the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansions and contractions influence overall market liquidity across economic phases. This is often aligned with broader credit or
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