US cannot get the long-end down (clearest here from Dec, but evident in 10yr from late Oct)

🇺🇸SnP500 is a model of neat, while 🇦🇺 ASX200 looks bewildered

ASX has bounced twice @ -2.4σ (today was a little short @ -2.2σ)

SPX tending to find a floor almost exactly @ -2.5σ from the 20 day

ECB continues to keep rates steady [has dropped rates 8 times so far]

Bank of England held rates steady 5:4 vote 5 to hold 4 to drop [has cut 6 times, so far]

Nvidia no longer keeping Bitcoin company

US logistics enlivened by ISM manufacturing spurt

BTC halved since 7 Oct 25 $125,000 hi though still well up on $20,000 in Feb 23

Aust'n Econ Momentum more or less stable, despite metals + ores prices starting to gyrate

bond convexities starting to diverge

US now openly contemplating not delivering AUKUS submarines

US treasury: bigger buy backs 📈to $40B per mth #QRA ~ Bessent stays w Yellen's mid-to-long term purchases but big 📈short term notes buybacks ~ Adds to liquidity + tending short term rates down📉 = near match to US Fed's Dec 25 decision on monthly purchase of $40B notes < 3 yrs

US treasury QRA 4 Feb 26 ~ in Nov treasury "began" monitoring auction sizes; now saying this will continue - maintaining current levels for "at least next several Q's" BUT ~ increasing Q buybacks overall: from $63 📈to $121B (max) 1 mth to 2 yr notes: from $29B 📈to $83B (max)

ISM revised down last month's (Dec 25) services index from 54.4 to 53.8, and issued this month at 53.8 too

Big 4 London banks thrive NatWest Barclays HSBC Lloyds

Aust'n 10yr: now sustained lead over US = $A 📈 = value of $US denominated assets tend/pushed📉

its becoming easier to argue that #M7 is struggling as capital expenditure on Ai dampens near term prospects

strengths and weaknesses [risk adjusted excess returns]

employee cost of living📉 ABS releases #ELCI 📉the day after RBA rate hike 📈 ~ ELCI = cost of living wage and salary households only (Aust wide) including finance charges (mortgages) ~ cf CPI = all metropolitan households only (no finance charges)