Kyle
@0xkyle__
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first principled, thesis-driven investor @defiancecapital tweets are myself, not representative of my employer
Joined November 2015
My advice for 2025 is to sell, really. Onchain / memes get really easy once you internalise the idea that you have to sell. its not magic, its just (3,3) - everyone IS winning, simply because everyone is buying and not selling. but when it comes to leave, the exit door is.
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IN PROGRESS:. A COMPLETE TIMELINE OF THE WHOLE FTX COLLAPSE SO FAR.📄. SCROLL ALL THE WAY DOWN FOR MOST UPDATED NEWS. ALL TIMES ARE IN SGT (Singapore). Americans are 12 hours behind. Europeans are 7 hours behind. Please add on if I'm missing, and RT for support <3.
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🚨 I read through and summarized ALL the 2023 Crypto Outlooks from the BIGGEST COMPANIES so that you don't have to 🚨. AN OMEGA THREAD 🧵. Companies: Fisher8, Pantera, VanEck, Coinbase, Messari, New Order, Arca Funds, PwC, a16z. Missing Delphi / The Block bc I don't have access.
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there are two rules everyone knows to follow in the bull, but no one actually does. it will cost you thousands, millions of dollars, before you actually internalize it. they are: never fade the trend, and always buy the leader. these rules come in pairs. memecoin leader pumping?.
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it's not that hard, all you had to do was:. - not hold eth.- not buy the murad list when murad was peak attention.- not buy the murad list after it peaked .- buy the animal coins, but made sure you pick the right animal coins.- sell the animal coins, not hold them.- not rebuy the.
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cmon bro lock tf in you have to do research on acolyt, adam, aixbt, ai16z, alch, alpharc, anz, asym, ava, dking, docs, efi, eve, exmplr, fai, fdream, gnon, grph, heu, lay, lei, loky, neur, nomai, nova, opaium, panterai, pollo, poly, rei, snai, spectra, spore, sqdgn, swarms, uos,.
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Successful people converge on 3 ways to learn: lots of reading time, some exercises and projects, and conversations with people who are slightly ahead of them. - @robkhenderson
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hyperliquid . i think the most unspoken but genius thing about hyperliquid, and what gives it the most upside is how it awarded the airdrop. look:. - jeff is building a perp dex. the goal is to outcompete binance, and every perp dex that exists.- for that reason, he doesn't list.
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imo it is not an exploit, this is how HLP is designed. socialized losses unfortunately . heres my explanation.> be you, a rich mf.> lev long 30x or smth to get to insane size .> impt: everyone follows you, pushing price up, you are immediately in profit.> how do you close? if you.
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This might be a hot take, but i genuinely think that there is a substantial chance that AI Agents will no longer be the dominant narrative in the next few months. I think.1) the select few AI agent platforms do well;.2) otherwise, many AI coins fall off. the reason I think this.
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the ai16z trade has two legs. 1st leg: 180m -> 1bn, as the market heavily underpriced something that had great fundamentals. 2nd leg: 1bn -> ?? as tokenomics change + exchanges list + this takes its rightful place as king of all AI, the "Layer 1" of all AI agents. glhf.
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the PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ran the SAME PLAYBOOK OF PUMPING INTO AN UNLOCK and you're BULLISH????. jesus christ man.
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Alpha on how I conduct narrative trading - A banger image thread 🧵. These are from my older notes, but still quite applicable I'd think. Prep work before buying:
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$ava @HoloworldAI . 1/ overarching thesis.- the AI cycle thus far has been as such:.A) GPU / Models / Data - Render / TAO / Grass.- This fizzled out in Q1 as people realized that crypto x AI in this format doesn't work. B) Frameworks, Agents .- building on the ai are "gpt
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i don't understand.if you liked hype at 30.you should be liking it alot at 12.
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gm - proud to announce that i am open-sourcing my sector performance watchlist. We all miss Cryptowatch's watchlist. - curated by yours truly.- powered by @artemis__xyz.- inspired by @ceterispar1bus . have fun! .
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gmeow, some updates. I'm very happy to announce that I am joining @DeFianceCapital as an analyst. Excited to work with @Arthur_0x!! . PS: My trade ideas here still reflect my own thoughts as an individual and do not represent the views or positions of DeFiance Capital.
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some ai verticals.- ai art.- ai apps.- ai agents .- ai swarms .- ai infra (frameworks).- ai infra (L1s) .- ai compute.- ai gaming . first wave: ai compute, ai infra (L1s).second wave: ai agents, ai infra (frameworks), ai swarms.third wave: second wave + ai art, ai apps, ai games.
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Good friend told me he was underperforming, and this was my advice to him. TL full of euphoria but we dont see the losers tbh, so hope this advice helps anyone struggling
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some random thoughts on the industry . 1. general purpose blockchains will die. each one needs a specific usecase, and they will be defined by what is built on it. 44% of web traffic runs on WordPress, yet it’s parent company Attica is only valued at ~US$7.5b. 4% of internet.
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the simplest explanation for why every KOL that was silent about Hype, is now talking about "hyperliquid trenches" is:. they missed hype, and now are trying to farm you. my advice? either long HYPE, or long the actual community adjacent tokens. AFAIK, that's really only PURR, PIP
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why is everyone acting like they give so many fucks about decentralization all of a sudden. 1) hyperliquid still remains the least worst decentralized perp dex, and at least they TRY to do everything right. 2) it is, imo, pretty telling that CEXes really tried to put a DEX outta
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might get flak for this but this is my opinion of how the market is currently looking at things
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1/ Haven't done one of these in a while. But this project really excites me, and I think it deserves a thread. Here's what @dammfinance is building and why it sent shivers down my spine 🧵.
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pretty sure that the entire space collectively agreeing that "VC / CEX / high FDV coins are over" and coming to the conclusion that "there's now no way we can go higher" is a sign of market maturity, and instead of whining about it your job is to now extrapolate from ytd.
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man, singapore really shot itself in the foot. 3ac leaving is huge, indicator for other firms that might be looking at sg to look away. idk man MAS is being prudent but at the cost of looking too hawkish. understand fixation on protection but at what cost?.
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third hot take, lots to say about this - it's not gonna be nice. fundamentals will be the only thing that matters moving forward. the structure of crypto markets as you knew and love is over. and accepting this is just a tug of war between how flexible and fluid you are (which
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ai16z. - despite all the fud that shaw has taken with eliza and matt levaine, the eliza framework remains one of the most used frameworks for AI agents, with dev use case upOnly.- tbh, the two events were not fundamental problems with ai16z itself, but more of shaw's tweeting
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good morning, it's time to rant:. - people are disillusioned with crypto progress because assets that the market decides to bid are very low quality. like it or not, when you're building in finance + has a price tag to your build, your attitude will inevitably be determined by.
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btc: pulls back by 25%.ct: this industry wont be here in 5 years, there is no future . i think we’re getting closer.
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i still remember the days where CT was actually filled with alpha - either trading knowledge, portfolio risk management advice, or just actual key opinions about the markets . where did everyone go?.
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A personal story - I’ve been all in on crypto since the very beginning. Not just in trading, but in my career - as a student, all I’ve done are crypto internships, whether during summer breaks or during the semester. I’ve done this since joining in 2021, where I bought LUNA,.
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the fact is, 2022 we still saw an increasing # of developers - especially in chains like Solana, despite price going to $8. what's happening now is a loss of faith more than anything else - despite adoption by institutions at levels never seen before, the average developer does
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remember:.- sell when you feel like taking a screenshot, buy when it feels so over.- sell when it's peak attention, buy when it's low attention.- sell when everyone's talking about it, buy when no one's talking about it .- at points of max risk, it FEELS least risky. vice versa.
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just finished my final exams, gonna graduate soon :). i still remember making this account when i was a freshman. nothing to my name, and i was called 0x_fren. its been 4 years - crazy how fast time flies! . next milestone: getting married (?) need find a gf first tho 😭🤣. <3.
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i dont know why people come into crypto thinking its easy to trade 4 figs to 7 figs. literally in no industry does that exist; if someone asked u to trade stocks from 4 figs to 7 figs you'd say you're better off getting a job. but people come into crypto thinking its easy asf?.
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Crypto is in a bear market. But the fundamentals haven't changed. Understanding WHAT makes crypto special will help you navigate these tough times:.
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i don't think you guys understand how insane this AI meme rally is gonna be.
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yall need to realise that jeff is probably a once in a cycle dev, that has just kept shipping and has built one of the best products in crypto + distributed a token in a way literally unseen in crypto. top tier product w no vc backing. incredible.
Hundreds of thousands of wallets got airdropped hype in a couple of minutes, there was no issues or lag or downtime whatsoever, and now trading has started without a single issue. never seen this before. Every previous major airdrop has had some major issues/lag/downtime.
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Spoonfeeding alpha for everyone on this wintery night: . Here's how I'm thinking about the current iteration of memes, and how I'm thinking about edge. Edge is never found on the horizon, but always beyond - the second order principle of first order consequences
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pengu is one of those coins that just has such a strong thesis that i’m willing to wait & eat the drawdowns. its basically unpumped, airdrop fractal of the largest brand in crypto… fresh narrative, meme, etc. just gotta wait innit.
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Trying something new: Memecoin Sector Updates. Gonna start tracking memecoin rotations on a sectoral basis. AI / CEX / BASE / DOG sectors so far. 1. Would this be helpful? - pls like / comment if you think so.2. Let me know what you want added.3. Should I add market color?
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if you strip away all the math talk, what you see here is. - a founder operating on first principles.- who refuses to do CEX mechanics and stands up for all DeFi is.- extremely smart and high integrity. This is everything you want in a founder and more. Bet big on great people!.
There's been a lot of discussion on Hyperliquid's margin design. I’ll address some flaws in the common arguments and explain Hyperliquid's first-principles based approach to improving the system. To my knowledge, this is the first such design in margining systems. Perhaps other.
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The best L1 to launch this cycle, and nothing will come close. Jeff solved the L1 problem - build a fantastic app, then a L1 around it, not the other way around. Anyways, this is a L1 token thats trading at valuations of a perp DEX
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this take + the whole "institutions are the most bullish they've been on crypto, yet retail is the most bearish" accurately reflects the state of the market. imo the only people getting rekt, and will continue to get rekt, is the retailers who trade 24/7 - on a sunday, iilliquid.
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every good trader i know right now is taking some sort of break. tells you all you need to know. swim with the current, not against it.
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🚨 A MEGA THREAD OF ALL MY RESEARCH 🚨. PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE 🔬🔮. 👇👇👇.
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jan rally coins //. if eth rally -> preferred choice is aave / ena. aave esp because even if eth doesn’t do well, defi regs would benefit it anyways so it’s less reliant on an eth rally. ena same, but aave is simpler to me. uni could be good. others that are potentially good:.
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been building a meme-tracker, but not sure if it's useful - so crowdsourcing opinion . like / rt if you think i should open-source this
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People saying that they will sell HYPE on T1 CEX Listing. Have you considered the fact that Hyperliquid IS the T1 CEX?.
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an elon tweet used to be able to pump multi-billion asset class by the multiples, now can only pump a shitter by 3x. a pump is a pump, but this is the textbook definition of edge erosion - news tweeting just doesn't hit like it used to
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everyone celebrating base ai szn while sol ai shitters that were all the rage three days ago look like this now. remember, when everyone talks about it, it feels like most opportunity but its actually the most risk
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@carolinecapital @cz_binance this app is gold. biggest cexes in the space pvping it on bird app . never change.
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my favourite parts. jordi is such a goat lol.
crypto market wizards . a text transcript of my interview with Jordi Alexander of Selini Capital. an insight into the mind of one of the best crypto traders in the the world
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it seems people have forgotten the ability to dream.- btc 103k.- every minor btc pull back alts nuke .- people have no conviction to hold their longs and tp aggressively.- however, unlike previous trends, charts continue to make higher highs. this is how an uptrend begins. .
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a continuation of my "just sell" advice to the world. heed at your own accord. we are really in easy money conditions. how i lost it all last cycle was just betting more. more and more. good luck.
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rhino was right.degenping was right.cobie was right.marusha was right.bleeker was right.goodalexander was right.
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gm. cleanse the mind of all that could have been. focus on what can be
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alas, the people don't realise that the end of bull market 4 year cycles, also means the end of bear market 4 year cycles.
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abstract research notes. - Blockchain for consumer crypto -> zk L2 on ETH, built using ZK stack ; EVM compatible.- Core feature: looking to make interacting as seamless as possible with its focus on native account abstraction -> brings in smart wallets. paymasters. a) Smart.
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that part of the cycle where you've made some serious gains, but continue to play in the casino with larger size, and when nothing's going up, you lose all your gains. welcome to profit taking 101 . i know this because it is happening to me right now.
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GPU - RNDR / AKT.Model - TAO .Data - Grass. >> Built on top of these, you have.Infra Framework - Ai16z .Agents built on Infra - AIXBT.Agents together (Swarm) - FXN. And so and so. IMO, the next iteration will continue to trend towards no-code. Frameworks are cool, but it's like.
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i believe in what i call the mixed supercycle ; some thoughts (pics included!). 1/ bitcoin is in a market of its own; btc and alts are two completely separate tandems where. 2/ alts look to bitcoin for indication, but bitcoin does its own thing ; and bitcoin follows macro / flows
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the long degeneracy thesis especially gambling is the culmination of economical, social & technological dynamics that have been forming the last few years. - tech: dopamine riddled social media & tiktok that ruins attention spans, making people want thing instantly.- work: no one.
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many people are still not understanding the network effects. > have most used ai agent framework.> have tons of partners in different areas.> everything accrues to you.> mini projects all want to partner .> ai16z grows bigger.> open sourced moat grows, people cannot replicate
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looked at what the shillers are shilling in ai meta and just bought acolyt, adam, aixbt, ai16z, alch, alpharc, anz, asym, ava, dking, docs, efi, eve, exmplr, fai, fdream, gnon, grph, heu, lay, lei, loky, neur, nomai, nova, opaium, panterai, pollo, poly, rei, snai, spectra, spore,.
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i sincerely believe that there is no other career alpha greater than being situated in NYC for the next 4 years. my previous alpha was: work in crypto because the assymetric growth trajectory was so insane, since the space lacked people. my new alpha is - move to fuckin NYC.
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$PENGU @LucaNetz . 1/ crypto always follows the pattern of wave 1 - hype, wave 2 - fundamentals. - L1s in 2021 = Wave 1 - rode the hype wave. In 2023, the one with fundamentals left (Solana at that time), repriced, and Solana became the winner in Wave 2 .- DeFi in 2021 - hype
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