Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunas
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Senior ETF Analyst for @Bloomberg . Dad. Rutgers grad. Gen X-er. Author of "The Institutional ETF Toolbox" & "The Bogle Effect.” Co-host of Trillions & ETF IQ.
South Philly, yo
Joined May 2010
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For real though I busted my butt over past 2yrs writing a deep yet colorful dive into the impact/story/future of Vanguard intertwined w character study of Bogle feat exclusive intvs w him and 50 other ppl incl Buffett, Micheal Lewis et al. Check it out:
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THEY DID IT: $GME was the most traded equity on the planet today w/ $20b in volume, more than $SPY, $AAPL and even the Mighty $TSLA. Surreal.
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Happy ETF Approval Day (for real this time) to all those who celebrate.. as far as we know it's ALL SYSTEMS GO. Most likely is we see formal approvals ballpark 4-6pm today with the Derby starting on Thursday. We are ready at Bloomberg, getting DES pages up as we speak.
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Update:
@JSeyff
and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they'd be denied). See
SEC decision deadline this week on spot eth ETFs…
SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) & S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to launch.
Technically possible for SEC to approve 19b-4s & then slow play S-1s (esp given reported lack of engagement here).
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“Order granting accelerated approval” it’s over. Thank God.
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Let me put into context how insane $10b in volume is in first 3 days. There were 500 ETFs launched in 2023. Today, they did a COMBINDED $450m in volume. The best one did $45m. And many have had months to get going. $IBIT alone is seeing more activity than the entire '23 Freshman
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I still don’t totally ‘get’ crypto but I will say it pisses off all the right people. If Krugman is against it you prob onto something.
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CONFIRMED
BOOM!! APPROVED! There it is. The SEC just approved spot
#Ethereum
ETFs. What a turn of events. It's really happening.
h/t
@PhoenixTrades_
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SEMI-SHOCK: Fidelity launching a spot bitcoin ETF in Canada this week. Didn't know about this. Will easily be the biggest asset manager to date with a bitcoin ETF.
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The iShares Bitcoin Trust has been listed on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, which clears NASDAQ trades). And the ticker will be $IBTC. Again all part of the process of bringing ETF to market.. h/t
@martypartymusic
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"The Virtue Was the Con" nails it, may be the best headline I've seen yet. "SBF pitched himself as the honest crypto genius who'd spend his fortune saving world. Then he spent other's people money saving himself." Well done
@NYMag
h/t
@fintechfrank
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JUST IN: BlackRock updated its bitcoin ETF prospectus w/ many new Authorized Participants incl first-timers Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup. Takeaway: big time firms now want piece of action and/or are now OK being publicly associated w this. H/t
@akibablade
@CryptoSlate
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Congrats to Grayscale btw, they are why all this happened. They fought the law and won. Even so I was doubtful they’d make it to starting gate but they have. Now I owe
@JSeyff
and
@NateGeraci
a sushi lunch.
“I am happy to confirm that the Grayscale team has received necessary regulatory approvals to uplist GBTC to NYSE Arca, and we will share a press release with additional information shortly” ~ Grayscale spokesperson
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It's official..the New Nine Bitcoin ETFs have broken all time volume record today with $2.4b, just barely beating Day One but about double their recent daily average. $IBIT went wild accounting for $1.3b of it, breaking its record by about 30%.
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Wow, a state pension bought $IBIT in first quarter. Normally you don't get these big fish institutions in the 13Fs for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity) but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 State of Wisconsin Investment Board discloses it holds almost $100 million of BlackRock's spot
#Bitcoin
ETF.
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LOWER: BlackRock has just cut the fee on its spot Bitcoin ETF to 0.25% (and 0.12% for the first $5b). They really going for the jugular here, looking to crush the others bf they even born, just brutal. ARK has also cut to 0.21%. Bitwise curr low at 0.20%. Terrordome life.
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Value investors have finally had enough
Protestors staging a 60 second “die-in” in front of the Federal Reserve
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My kid has been this move lately in our one-on-one games. I think it’s a carry violation but maybe not. Anyone know?
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UPDATE: there is no update yet. We waiting to hear something. Saw two dif ppl on here claiming it is delayed (without saying their source) till later tonight, but we can't confirm this with anyone yet. That's all we know rn.
@JSeyff
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First two months officially in the books (it's felt like six) and the ten bitcoin ETFs now have over $55b in assets with exactly double that in volume at $110b. If these were the numbers at the end of year I'd call them a success. To do it in eight weeks is simply absurd.
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HOME STRETCH: $IBIT has just passed $1b in volume today (will break $BITO's record) w/ group hitting $4.3b or $2.2b ex-GBTC (which isn't 'new' per se). Also good sign to see 4 issuers over $100m. Strong middle class in the works. Easily the biggest Day One splash in ETF history.
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This is how you market to rich boomers, folks. The calm disposition, easy to understand inv case, soft new age music, suit with no tie.. everything about it says “it’s ok now, the adults are here”
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LATEST: With two days in the books, the Nine Newborns have taken in +$1.4b in new cash, overwhelming $GBTC's -$579m of outflows for net total of +$819m. $IBIT now leading pack w/ half a bil, Fidelity close second tho. The newborns' $3.6b in trading volume on 500k indiv trades
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OMG, it looks like Valkyrie changed their ticker to $BTFD, they must of have listened to Twitter bc that was like all over my replies every time we talked about $BTF. Talk about an instant classic.
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BlackRock just dropped its updated S-1 and it DOES name the APs: Jane Street and JPMorgan (which is kinda ironic). Looks we have our first horse that at the starting gate.
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BlackRock has gone cash only. That’s basically a wrap. Debate over. In-kind will have to wait. It’s all about getting ducks in row bf holidays. Good sign.
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Vanguard banning all bitcoin ETFs from their platform
Reports that Vanguard is completely blocking customer access to publicly-listed, SEC-approved
#Bitcoin
ETFs and customers can now only sell $GBTC.
Interesting business choice.
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Hearing chatter SEC’s Trading & Markets engaged w/ exchanges this week on spot bitcoin ETF 19b-4s, is advising them they'd like the ETFs to do cash creates (vs in-kind), and has asked them to get in amendments in next couple wks. This isn't unexpected but good sign nonetheless.
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Looks like the first "request for acceleration" (which is a request to launch on same day as everyone else, in this case 1/11, which the SEC told issuers to put in today) has dropped. We were expecting them at 4pm, but earlier is fine (ARK is always the first in this stuff), it's
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JEEZ: Only halfway through trading day and New Nine bitcoin ETFs have already broken their all time daily volume record w/ $2.6b. We got 4 btc ETFs in Top 20. $IBIT is
#4
overall, it's gonna trade more today than in its first two wks combined. This is officially a craze.
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Holy crap $GBTC had inflows today. Their 80 day-ish streak is finally over. I had to run my eyes and double check the data but it’s true.
Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow
GBTC US$ Flow: 63 million
For all the data and disclaimers visit:
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MILESTONE $IBIT has traded $1b worth of shares today so far.. which ranks it 11th among all ETFs (Top 0.3%) and Top 25 among stocks. Insane number for newbie ETF (esp one w ten competitors). $1b/day is big boy level volume, enough for (even big) institutional consideration.
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$IBIT has already traded $2m worth of shares traded. That would be a great first FULL day for a normal ETF let alone at 6am bf mkt, BUT.. this volume is likely BlackRock orchestrated, slowly loading in the BYOA $ it had lined up. Still tho good early sign of big day.
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BOOM: ARK just filed for a Spot Ether ETF, the first one.. prob more coming imminent
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Grayscale putting on a btc-themed drone show on the beach. Pretty next level ETF marketing..
@exchangeETF
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Things you prob don't do if you going to deny or delay. Hearing similar btw, and why why when we see updated (final) 19b-4s roll in that is sign approval imminent as SEC has been doing back and forth w issuers offline to perfect their 19b-4s vs doing numerous refilings a la S-1s
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Quick reminder: ETFs are depository receipts (this is what SPDR stand for: S&P Depository Receipts) so you do own the btc (or any underlying asset an ETF tracks) your shares (aka receipts) link to proportional btc that has been 'deposited' w a custodian. This is why ETFs are
Quick reminder:
When you buy any of the BTC ETF’s you’re buying into an index product that tracks the price. You don’t actually own any BTC.
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Lot of ppl sending me this tweet. On one hand, if GBTC outflows were big, he's right it was net neutral day for btc buy/sell by ETFs. On the other, it was a TERRIBLY HUGE SUCCESS. By all metrics: volume, # of trades, flows, media coverage it was smashing success, historical. And
THE BITCOIN ETF FIRST DAY WAS TERRIBLY UNSUCCESSFUL.
Most people are reporting that $4,5BN was traded , they are not analyzing the data.
If you look at the numbers you will notice that;
- Total trade was $4,6bn
- GBTC was 50% of that $2,3bn
The GBTC numbers were majority
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I just read the replies and the winner is.. Megadebt
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More wild stats: $IBIT makes up 0.2% of BlackRock's ETF lineup but has accounted for 42% of its net flows this year. $FBTC makes up 2% of Fidelity's ETF lineup but has accounted for 64% of its net ETF flows this year.
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BlackRock just re-filed their S-1 based on last min comments given yesterday. Hard to tell what has changed at first glance, but imp thing is that the unheard of 24hr turnaround time bt filing, comments and re-filing tells us all parties aiming to get this show on road pronto.
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Damn, the fee for BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF will be 0.30% as per their just filed S-1. This is much cheaper than I predicted. Life just got a LOT tougher for everyone else. The ETF Terrordome is no joke.
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Wow, only 20 min into trading and the volume is big with HALF A BILLION traded for the group (ex GBTC too) (outpacing $BITO by a lot) led by $IBIT (which is near lock to pass $1b) and $FBTC. Imp to note almost all the volume in first few days will convert to inflows.
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Latest on HK spot Bitcoin ETFs: They have been approved to exist but not launch (yet). Rumor has it launching next wk so to not compete w Dubai conf. Don't expect a lot of flows (I saw one estimate of $25b that's insane). We think they'll be lucky to get $500m. Here's why:
1. HK
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The Nine had biggest volume day since Day One with about $2b in combined trading thx to big contributions from $HODL, $BTCW and $BITB which all broke their personal records. For context $2b in trading would put them in Top 10ish among ETFs and Top 20ish among stocks. It's a lot.
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RECORD BREAKER: $BITO assets up to $1.1b after today, making it the fastest ETF to get to $1b (2 days) breaking $GLD’s 18yr old record (3 days), which is poetically apropos.
The fastest ETF to ever get to $1b (naturally) was $GLD in 2004. It did it in 3 days. No one has really come that close since. $BITO has $570m after one day a legit shot to at least tie this DiMaggio-esque feat. Here's the fastest in a Missile Command-y looking chart from
@JSeyff
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The Eethness Stakes is pretty good. Nice look at all the entrants dealing w this fire drill. Hearing the SEC wants revised 19b-4s returned to them by 10am tmrw morning (based on a bunch of comments they just received today) for likely approval as soon as Wed.
Here's a list of all entrants in the spot
#Ethereum
ETF race. The 'ETHness Stakes'
(h/t to
@LongTailFinance
for the name)
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JUST IN: BlackRock has re-filed for spot bitcoin ETF, the resubmission was dated 6/29, Nasdaq just posted tho. They just added Coinbase like everyone else.
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JUST IN: ARK just filed for a bitcoin futures ETF via 21Shares and via whiteAlpha Architect white label (huge win for them). Already has ticker too: $ARKA (yet another good sign SEC gonna approve)
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THEY DID IT AGAIN: $AMC is the most traded equity in the world today w/ $13b, more than $TSLA and nothing trades more than TSLA these days. LOL.
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BlackRock stating in their recent spot Bitcoin ETF amendment that they are seeding the ETF in October. Don’t want to read that much into it but it is new info not in original filing so noteworthy (esp bc they BlackRock). Great catch by Scott.
So two things caught my eye from the latest iShares (Blackrock) S-1 amendment:
- They've obtained a CUSIP in prep for a launch
- They may be looking to seed with cash this month (which is earlier than I would've thought, but may be nothing)
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Fun fact: BlackRock's record of getting ETFs approved by the SEC is 575-1. That's another reason this is so big, they don't play around.
Holy crap, they did it! BlackRock has officially filed for a spot bitcoin ETF. Huge. Huge h/t to
@CoinDesk
for calling it.
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NOTABLE: Valkyrie just updated their bitcoin futures ETF prospectus (which typically only happens when ducks in row ready for launch). They added their ticker $BTF, altho no fee still. Can't say this is done deal type evidence but a good sign IMO.
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All told there were 700,000 individual trades today in and out of the 11 spot ETFs. For context, that is double the number of trades for $QQQ (altho it sees much bigger $ volume bc bigger fish use it) So a lot more grassroots action (vs big seed buys) than I expected which is
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NEXT LEVEL: $TSLA just obliterated the all-time volume record for an equity w/ $148b worth of shares traded today, beating $SPY's $118b high water mark set during March chaos. For perspective, $MSFT trades about $5b/day.
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Invesco/Galaxy is in and here's a whopper: it will be waiving fee for first six months AND for first $5b in assets, APs named as well, Virtu and JPMorgan (again lol). Another horse in. Are we having fun yet?
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This caught my attn too, hadnt heard this but it would be on brand for BlackRock. They’ve lined up and injected big cash into new ETFs on first day of trading so it registers as volume/flows. *If* it’s true, $2b would blow away all first day/week volume/aum records for an ETF.
VanEck's Matthew Sigel just said he's heard from a well placed source that BlackRock has $2 billion of capital lined up from existing bitcoin holders that want to rotate into spot bitcoin ETFs in week one 👀
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RIDIC: the New Nine doubled their volume record (set Monday) with just about $6b traded.. $IBIT led w $3.3b of it, Fidelity did $1.4b (both double their prev records). The total number of trades was double too, over half a million individual trades bt them. $IBIT alone > $QQQ.
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While not confirmed, a little delay isn't that crazy considering Trading & Markets was told 11th hour themselves. (we think it's poss they even had rejection letters prepared). So poss they need to finish writing it. That said, everything we've heard says it will be approved.
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LATEST: Despite $GBTC seeing a -$590m outflow gash friday, The Nine overwhelmed it w/ +$623m (3rd best day), $IBIT & $FBTC both >$200m while $BTCO & $HODL had their best hauls to date. TOT NET FLOWS stand at +$1.2b as Nine's aum hit $4b vs GBTC's -$2.8b, upping aum share to 14%.
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Load up on lentils
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ARK weighs on Elon drama, is firmly on Team Bitcoin:
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Something is in the water again, the ten bitcoin ETFs have seen a big day's worth of volume in the first two hours, on pace to beat Tuesday's wild $10b day. $IBIT alone is $2.2b. A billion a day is big boy level, IBIT doing a bil an hour.
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Looks like Hong Kong is going to allow in-kind creations and redemptions for spot bitcoin ETFs in 2Q (unlike US which is cash creations only), which could help spark aum and volume in the fast-growing region via new note today from
@Rebeccasin_SK
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MILESTONE: the ten Bitcoin ETFs did $10b in volume today, smashing prev record set last Wed.. Volatility and volume go hand in hand with ETFs so not totally surprised. That said these are bananas numbers for ETfs under 2mo old. $IBIT, $FBTC, $BITB, $ARKB all w record days.
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On TV right on talking about this.. and yes, I think someone prepped a planned tweet and put wrong date, bc the tweet would have made PERFECT sense tomorrow at this time. The language sounds legit SEC-ish IMO vs a crypto knucklehead pulling a prank but I guess we'll see..
@EricBalchunas
"this sounds too SEC-ish, when crypto people prank you can tell" -
@EricBalchunas
eric lmao
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@disclosetv
great to see given my (low risk) kids have to wear a mask in school and even playing flag football
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This is false! Confirmed by BlackRock by me. Some whacko must have added using BlackRock executive name etc. Cmon man.
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I’m pretty sure this is a first for ETFs: someone donating underlying assets to the fund (which is now poss bc Bitwise published their bitcoin addresses). Never a dull moment I swear.
Somebody just sent 6969 sats to the Bitwise ETF 😂 It’s now the only over collateralized ETF.
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$HODL is going wild today with $258m in volume already, a 14x jump over its daily average, and it's not one big investor (which would make sense) but rather 32,000 individual trades, which is 60x its avg. Not sure how to explain.. maybe it was added to a platform over wknd ?
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But wait, ARK just dropped their fee to 0.25% in an S-1 filed 20 minutes after BlackRock’s. Told y’all the fee war would break out bf they even launched. And this is w out Vanguard on the mix. Damn.
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Nope. In fact, the exact opposite is true, the new 'Boomer' ETF investors are the strong ones (as we predicted), it's other bitcoin owners behind the selling pressure. I'll explain: the nine new Bitcoin ETFs have taken in about $1.2b in past 5 days as price declined 8%. $GBTC had
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First time ever 1D flows all green, no red for the Bitcoin Bunch. Not going to spike the football like some did during the outflow period but will point out that over 95% of the ETF investors HOLD-ed during what was a pretty nasty and persistent downturn. Will same happen next
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The 10 bitcoin ETFs netted +$2.3b last week. For context, that is more than any other ETF (out of 3,400) took in. $IBIT alone was
#2
. This brings total net to +$5b, which is more than BlackRock as a whole has taken in. Again, this is all net GBTC bleed. Throw that out and the
[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow - 16th Feb 2024
All data in. Another strong day with +$331.7m net flow. For the week its +$2,273.4m net flow
Total net flow since 11th Jan is +$4,926.9m
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JUST IN: Bitcoin futures ETFs said not to face any opposition at SEC, according to multiple sources confirming this (aside, I’m hearing same thing). Pretty much done deal. Expect launches next week. Nice late night story from
@kgreifeld
@VildanaHajric
@benbain
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Hold up a second, this isn't as bad as headline. The key paragraph is deep in story. Basically SEC wants them to name the "crypto exchange" and give more details on SSA. That's understandable, arguably good news. I was under impression they'd have to update that as well.
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BlackRock has made first step towards filing for a spot Ether ETF. I just confirmed on the website myself. Nice catch by
@SummersThings
The iShares Ethereum Trust has just been registered in Delaware.
For context, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was registered in a similar manner 7 days before they filed the ETF application with the SEC. Details below.
[announcement: I’m moving to
@SynopticCom
soon]
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JUST IN: Salim Ramji will be the new Vanguard CEO. He used to head up BlackRock's global ETF business. First time ever Vanguard hired outsider as CEO. Every other one was internal star and former Bogle assistant. INTERESTING. SEMI-SHOCK.
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Another intense volume day for the Nine with well over $2b traded. $IBIT broke its personal record again w/ $1.3b (for context that's more than most large cap US stocks trade). I don't know if this is a new normal or some kind of short-term algo/arb-related burst a la $HODL.
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$IBIT ended up with 414 reported holders in its first 13F season, which is mind boggling, blows away record. Even having 20 holders as a newborn is bfd, highly rare. Here's a look at how the btc ETFs compare to other ETFs launched in Jan (aka the Class of 2024) in this metric.
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LATEST: Day Four was a good one, the ROLLING NET FLOWS grew to +$1.2b after the Newborn Nine pulled in $914b on Wed, by far their best day yet, overwhelming the $450 out of $GBTC. The 'Nine' have now taken in $3b and traded $5.4b in first four days (abnormally high
#s
). $IBIT is
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Whoa, Reuters is reporting SEC is approving the iShares Bitcoin ETF, this is via Benzinga and an actual headline on the terminal. I still want more confirmation but this is second source saying this..
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If I was the SEC PR person I'd advise Gary to do a press conference today.. talk about the hack, ack they goofed, steps they've taken yada yada and then also announce ETF approvals (and the do his usual warnings on crypto) all in one shot. Done and done.
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People tagging me like crazy on this “rejection” report. We have heard nothing to indicate anything but approval but I want to give the guy benefit of doubt so I’m asking if he has any sources or if he just speculating. He seems to be bitcoin bull and recently tweeted
@10x_Research
@thielen10x
Hi Markus saw the “rejection” prediction just curious are you basing this off any sourcing (eg issuers or inside the SEC) or is it more just your opinion/take on things? Thanks
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The NET cumulative flows for the 10 bitcoin ETFs (incl GBTC) has doubled in past 3 days to over $3b (for context it took $GLD nearly 2yrs to get to this point) after another half a billion yesterday. The Nine alone are nearing $10b in flows. Chart via
@BitMEXResearch
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Hey $ARKK bears, Cramer just joined your team. My condolences.
I’ve disagreed with most of Cathie’s investment theses since last year (been in $SARK since its inception), but this is just brutal after today’s price action…
@jimcramer
$ARKK $TSLA $COIN $HOOD
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The 'Nine' saw another jump in volume today, up 12% vs Thur and 53% from Wed, a rare phenomenon. Also check out $FBTC seeing more trading than $IBIT, those two are in a legit duel to be The One.. but all of them posting huge numbers for newbies, competition is making them all
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@NateGeraci
@crypto
Yeah it’s basically done. Latest I’m hearing (from multiple sources) that final S-1s are due 8am on Monday as SEC is trying to line everyone up for Jan 11th launch. That said, I still want to hear it from the SEC to call it official.
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We have new high water mark for investment into one of the bitcoin ETFs: two dif advisors each put in $20m to $FBTC, one is from Kansas and the other Minnesota. The % of portfolio is also pretty high at 6% and 5% respectively. This edges out the $17m an advisor put in $IBIT
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A bipartisan group of House lawmakers (incl Majority Whip Tom Emmer and NJ Democrat Josh Gottheimer) have sent Gary Gensler a letter urging the SEC to approve spot Ether ETFs (and 'other' digital assets) bc it offers investors crypto access in regulated transparent safe format
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$IBIT is popping off, took in nearly half a billion all by itself yesterday, showing an unusually strong second wind for a new launch, is now over $5b which puts it in Top 7% of all ETFs by size in just 23 trading days.
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