WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: https://t.co/r7t35I0COq Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time. Key Takeaway

The Kremlin has been engaged in a campaign to deter US sales of Tomahawks to Ukraine in recent days, issuing boilerplate claims about US participation in the strikes, the threat such missile deliveries would pose to US-Russian relations, and the missiles’ inability to shift the

European officials continue to note how Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible

3/ Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area, near Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2025: https://t.co/PpZ9Ehxexv

2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

NEW: The Kremlin removed some restrictions on using Russian reservists in combat, allowing the Kremlin to employ reservists in its war in Ukraine. The Russian government approved on October 13 a draft law that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed stipulating that

2/ Iran Update, October 13, 2025: https://t.co/5g1yO6XDSu

NEW: Hamas and Israel have continued to implement the October 9 ceasefire agreement. Hamas released all 20 living hostages and the bodies of four deceased hostages, and Israel released at least 1,700 Palestinian prisoners on October 13. The ceasefire agreement does not address

American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraine’s long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months.

This event is the first instance of ISW observing “little green men” (a euphemism the Kremlin uses for the Russian military forces in unmarked uniforms) operating near a NATO state in the context of the “Phase Zero” campaign.

Russia’s effort to generate increased military recruitment through high financial incentives is reportedly losing momentum, indicating that Russia’s main method for recruiting volunteers for its war may be hitting diminishing returns. ⬇️ ISW assessed in February 2025 that

Kremlin rhetoric downplaying the frontline impact of Tomahawk missiles, emphasizing the potential for Tomahawk provisions to damage US-Russia relations, and blaming Ukraine for not hindering peace efforts are part of the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to prevent the United States from

The Kremlin is attempting to stabilize its domestic gasoline market to offset the consequences of Ukraine’s long-strike campaign against refineries. Continued subsidies to the gasoline sector will increase costs on the Russian state.

American intelligence sharing with Ukraine has reportedly been crucial in increasing the efficacy of Ukraine’s long-range drone strike campaign targeting the Russian energy sector in recent months.

2/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12, 2025: https://t.co/MrpnjcjGRN

NEW: Estonian authorities temporarily closed a section of road passing through Russian territory near the Russia-Estonia border on October 10 after Estonian border guards observed a small group of Russian military personnel without insignia in the area. ISW continues to assess

Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO on a timeline much sooner than 2036 and without necessarily reconstituting its tank fleet.⬇️

The Russian defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate Russia’s pre-war tank reserves, indicating that Russia intends to present a long-term military threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Recent open-source

2/ Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB). Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign

The Russian defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate Russia’s pre-war tank reserves, indicating that Russia intends to present a long-term military threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Recent open-source