Stephen Talkhouse
@stevetalkhouse
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Business services investor and owner operator 👷👨💼🧑🔧 Not a HoldCo! No advice, just hot takes 🔥🔥
Texas, USA
Joined September 2022
After levering himself to the tits to buy a family-owned HVAC company in central Michigan, a 33-year old ex-Bain consultant learns the cold hard truth about ‘passive’ income.
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The crazy thing is both $ELV and $MOH indicated their reduced 2025 outlook was based largely on ACA exchange biz (<10% of rev, lol), which is ugly in H2 given elective surgery pull forward related to ACA subsidy expiration. That only happens once, then you lap in 2026 on much
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$ELV perhaps now the best risk/reward in the managed care space. Beachfront asset in the Blue Cross Blue Shield commercial franchise. Growing vertically integrated services and pharmacy business similar to United’s Optum. Under earning in their Medicaid business. If they get back
A year ago $ELV traded at a high teens earnings multiple and today trades at less than 9 times 2026 estimates. Sure, there is risk to numbers for a variety of reasons. But we are at a point where even if numbers come down the stock is still cheap Long $ELV
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A year ago $ELV traded at a high teens earnings multiple and today trades at less than 9 times 2026 estimates. Sure, there is risk to numbers for a variety of reasons. But we are at a point where even if numbers come down the stock is still cheap Long $ELV
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Why are personal injury attorneys the marginal bidder for roadside billboards in so many parts of the US? Is the sector really so large? A priori, I would never have predicted this. Quick investigation: "Costs and compensation paid in the U.S. tort system reached over $529
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Normally don't do this, but if I'm going to YOLO a stock, $UNH is pretty dang interesting here. Trading at a record discount versus the S&P 500, and near the lowest multiple in its history. Largest US MCO w/ >50mm lives insured, 400k employee base + vertically integrated care
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Apollo’s chief economist published a fantastic macro update deck worth a read. Have a feeling any deals still under LOI about to get repriced.. https://t.co/ZpIH8PJetW
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Ex-Snowflake CEO Frank Slootman telling the hard truths.
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Warren Buffett: "I have an old-fashioned belief that I only should expect to make money in things that I understand. I don't mean understand what the product does. I mean understand what the economics of the business are likely to look like ten years from now."
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There is only one way to prosperity, hard work and higher productivity. Many Europeans follow socialist narratives and believe that they can build prosperity by redistribution of someone else’s work and wealth. One cannot multiple wealth by dividing it.
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Most Americans want to “lock the clock”and the movement is picking up steam. There was a bill just sponsored in Texas that would make this a statewide referendum. Question is whether to lock on DST or Standard Time. I personally prefer DST to extend daylight into the evening.
Let’s end the madness: It’s time to make Daylight Saving Time permanent. Every year we debate Daylight Saving Time like it’s some outdated relic, but the real issue isn’t that we spring forward, it’s that we fall back. Why are we voluntarily making our evenings darker in the
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(!) Perhaps the most important rule in management (!) "Get the incentives right." - Charlie Munger When designing compensation plans, be extremely cognizant of the behavior you'll be incentivizing, and equally important, behavior you will be disincentivizing. Beware of plans
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One of the all-time great podcasts on how to build a successful SMB platform (hint: focus on culture, not financial engineering!). @collin_hathaway deserves credit for building one of the highest quality platforms in home services (Wrench Group).. and after being forced to sell
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Nobody who’s actually good at making money needs to sell you a course on it.
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We need DOGE in Texas! Can’t believe TXTag is being handed to this incompetent and corrupt organization. Bring in the rangers! @GovAbbott
We already know there's an audit of the Harris County toll road spending on temporary workers, but we found another smelly deal at the toll road and it’s time for someone to put an end to this nonsense and a leash on this TOLL ROAD MONSTER. YouTube: https://t.co/WC1OjANUAy
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AI hype boyz on X who are long NVIDIA, fake / unrealistically narrow AI demos (that go viral), and vague claims from companies like Goldman “automating 95% of S-1 drafting process” all wildly overestimate the productive use cases of AI. For example often these demos fail to
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