Stephen Miran
@SteveMiran
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Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System // Personal account
New York
Joined March 2018
It was a huge honor to join Ambassador Guilfoyle and speak with Prime Minister Mitsotakis. We discussed global inflation trends, central banking and other critical subjects.
It was a true honor to join @PrimeMinisterGR and Federal Reserve Governor @SteveMiran in Athens and discuss Greece’s impressive economic recovery. During his visit to Greece this week, Dr. Miran has offered valuable insights into U.S. monetary policy, enriching 🇺🇸 🇬🇷dialogue on
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Wonderful to have the opportunity to meet with @Pierrakakis and @USAmbassadorGR . Today I gave a speech at the Delphi Economic Forum on regulations, monetary policy and the supply side.
I’m delighted to welcome to Greece my friend Dr. Stephen Miran, a leading voice on America’s monetary policy and financial system. This marks the first time a sitting member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors has come to Greece for an official visit — a milestone for our
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And because I know that some joker out there is gonna yell at me “but last year you thought measured shelter inflation being high was a reason not to cut!” - that’s because it wasn’t clear how long catch-up would last. ATR hadn’t converged to NTR. That only happened this year.
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And regardless of bias, we know where measured shelter inflation is headed, because we have a very substantial lead on it in the form of market rents. That’s far more important than any one data print.
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It’s not a good practice to accept all the upward biases and then rush to disregard any downward bias. Or vice versa. Let’s be clear-eyed about both. Today’s data brings the overall series closer to a fair read on underlying inflation.
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I appreciate a lot of the “do the data mean what we think they mean” questioning going on today. I wish everyone would ask that question more often. Indeed, I’ve argued shelter inflation has introduced an upward bias into measurement of underlying inflation for some time now
I highlighted two major elements. In the first, housing, measured inflation lags market rents significantly. Because all-tenant rents have finally caught up to new-tenant rents, there are good reasons for thinking measured shelter inflation will decelerate quickly.
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Prices are stable, consistent with our statutory mandate, albeit at a higher level than they were several years ago. Policy should reflect that. There is much more in the speech, including a lengthy discussion of tariffs.
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We should not ask people to lose their jobs because statistical quirks conflate quantities and prices (portfolio mgmt fees), or because shelter measurements still pick-up the housing market circa 2022.
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Given the obvious measurement issues in these components of the index, I think it makes sense to remove them when considering underlying inflation. Doing so indicates underlying inflation is running near our target, and I expect it to further converge.
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By conflating an increase in quantities with an increase in prices, noise in inflation measurement is causing the FOMC to keep interest rates too high, dragging on the labor market.
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However, ask anyone who works in the financial industry, and s/he will tell you the actual trend is one of fee compression, or deflation, not inflation. This trend has been in place for decades, as Morningstar data indicate.
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The second major element I highlighted is the noise involved in measuring imputed prices from nonmarket transactions. I focused on portfolio management fees, which have contributed 0.25% to measured core inflation over the last year.
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Because of monetary policy lags, we need to make policy for 2027. But elevated shelter inflation reflects a supply-demand imbalance from 2021-2023, not a supply-demand imbalance today. Stable market rents indicate the absence of such an imbalance.
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A year ago, this was not clear. All-tenant rents had not caught up to new-tenant rents, and there was uncertainty over how long catch-up would take. But market rents have now been growing at 1% rate for about two years - this is a powerful window into future measured inflation.
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I highlighted two major elements. In the first, housing, measured inflation lags market rents significantly. Because all-tenant rents have finally caught up to new-tenant rents, there are good reasons for thinking measured shelter inflation will decelerate quickly.
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Today I gave a speech on the inflation outlook. I believe underlying inflation is already running very close to the Fed's 2% target. The majority of excess inflation over target is due to quirks of the statistical measurement process, not excess demand.
federalreserve.gov
Thank you, Mr. Secretary. I appreciate the opportunity to speak here today. 1 When I offered my assessment of policy in my first speech as a Federal Rese
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Federal Reserve Governor @SteveMiran joins @ColumbiaIGP following the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year. He’ll address the implications for inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy, followed by a conversation with @ColumbiaSIPA Professor & IGP Faculty
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I discussed this in greater detail in a speech I gave last week on regulatory dominance of the Fed's balance sheet
federalreserve.gov
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. 1 The Federal Reserve is actively revising its banking regulations, a project that I strongly suppor
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