roll the dice never look back never think twice

eventually all speculation/gambling platforms (fantasy, casinos, dexes/perps, sportsbooks) will want to integrate prediction market contracts on them. why? because it increases user retention and engagement so it multiplies the native platform’s profits. it also allows them to

5/5 closed the day with Paris BC vs Panathinaikos… absolute grinder. experience from Panathinaikos’ guards sealed it in the clutch despite Paris putting up a strong fight. +9.25

4/5 tested some weather markets next. forecast data was split, half the models reading hot, half cold. no clear edge, exited fast. −$1.20

3/5 then I fell back to the classic crypto quicksand: 15-minute BTC markets. thought I had cracked the short-term model, but it turns out I hadn’t. 1:00-1:15 pm −$3.44 1:15-1:30 pm −$0.59 1:30-1:45 pm +$1.86 1:45-2:00 pm −$3 need tighter discipline + better volatility

2/5 opened the day strong: > alcaraz vs fritz (ATP finals) bought Alcaraz @ 72¢ ($15) after fritz took the first set, doubled down @ 38¢ ($5). match flipped mid–second set where stamina + experience carried him through. +13.99 beautiful reversal play.

1/5 day 3 at the genesis cup hosted by @Hivelive_ and @betmoardotfun solid recovery session all-time PnL sitting around +$35. momentum’s finally syncing with intuition.

7/7 — closing note day 1 was data. day 2 was recovery. momentum slowly building, now it’s about scaling precision.

6/7 recap crypto: +8.2 nba: +23.87 elon tweets: –0.77 total: +15.3 bucks carried. volatility did the rest.

5/7 general thoughts still staying away from high-conviction plays until I get deeper analysis time. might do a deep dive on the chilean elections next, potential edge there.

4/7 elon tweets thought I could get a 1.5-2x on this one but then it struck me that tweet isn’t only something that elon posts, but something that he rts as well. with 129 current and 12 hours remaining, I realized that it would probably take elon a couple of minutes to yap

3/7 the only high-conviction trade of the day bucks vs mavs 2-3 minutes before the end, tied game. trusted giannis’ late-game meta. almost doubled up. bucks vs mavericks → +23.87 that’s what carried the session.

2/7 crypto loops the short-term crypto markets hit different. fast pace, high variance, sharp dopamine curve. ideal to climb the leaderboard but equally risky btc 10:30-10:45 → +4.48 btc 10:45-11:00 → +2.34 btc 10:00-11:00 → +2.72 sol 11:00-11:15 → +2.38 sol 11:15-11:30

1/7 day 2 at the genesis cup 🧠📈 by @Hivelive_ @betmoardotfun started from –$17 pnl, no major sports on the slate, just nba and some side markets. so I went 15-min crypto markets mainly and the bucks vs mavericks game that did most od the pnl heavylifting closed the day

6/6 Summary down overall but calibrated. first day = data collection. next up: optimizing position sizing and timing entry around volatility spikes.

5/6 Crypto played the 15-min btc/eth volatility loops. +3.8, –6.12, +2.36, –0.79, +0.95 → net: –0.8 pretty much just testing muscle memory on-chain

4/6 Temperature new york 8 & 9 nov: •+7.64 •+7.63 climate alpha still undefeated

> aston villa BTTS → –15 > vejle no → –25 > man city under 3.5 → +8.78 > barca yes → +19.49 total: –14.95 the expected unpredictability tax paid in full.

3/6 — Sports tried to be the “rational bettor.” football said no. > atalanta no → +7.78 > karagümrük no → –10

2/6 Esports lol worlds finals (t1 vs kt). woke up late, missed my “over 3.5 games” setup so I went for volatility instead. > kt to win game 3 → +13.92 > under 4.5 games → –10 > kt to win series → –10 net: –6.08

1/6 first day at the Genesis Cup 🏆 @Hivelive_ rough start closed day one at –$17 pnl. only 50 advance next week, so playing it safe was off the table. pivoted to short-term, high-volatility markets: > sports > esports > temperature > crypto