The Fed may have good reason to cut interest rates more this year. But if so, it is much more likely to be in reaction to bad news, such as a deteriorating labor market, rather than the good news that an AI productivity boom has arrived, Jason Furman says: https://t.co/ZMXId6aOhV

The WTO members, including the middle-sized, have agency. They have the capacity to act. They have proven they can initiate agreements and conclude them. The initiative must come from them, Alan Wm. Wolff writes:

The "America First" investment agreements are aimed at expanding US manufacturing and strengthening supply chain security. By focusing on these sectors, the pledges are effectively an industrial policy aligned with Biden-era initiatives: https://t.co/hx0oeZ6kZL

.@AdamPosen joined CNBC to discuss the latest inflation data and the health of the economy, arguing that the broad economic picture is still inflationary:

A sharp drop in US two-way trade with China in 2025 was not echoed in US two-way trade with other partners. Instead, much of this trade was diverted to other countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia.

China’s redesign to its e-CNY is an indicator of a convergence with many central banks moving away from more divisive retail CBDCs towards “tokenized deposits” that can move money with new technology without disrupting banks, Martin Chorzempa writes:

The stark uncertainties about the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) necessitate scenario planning to prepare for the future. If AI reaches and surpasses human levels of intelligence across the board, it would transform our economy and society:

Following Mark Carney's Davos speech, Alan Wm. Wolff argues that smaller economies can create a new world trade order, & that positive change for the world trading system is not confined to a list defined by their shares in world trade:

.@ChadBown's trade war timeline 2.0 has been updated! Featuring details on the US-North Macedonia trade deal and updates about the US-Taiwan trade deal: https://t.co/suiplzh0dy

China's move to redesign its e-CNY with an added interest payments to holders brings up one of the most contentious current US financial policy debates: whether to allow privately issued digital stablecoins to pay interest, Martin Chorzempa explains:

Argentina’s latest monetary scheme could work, especially if backed by bilateral & multilateral financial support & a timely return to financing from global capital markets, but it contains new vulnerabilities that make the path to price stability narrow: https://t.co/tqnPT5OWFl

Trading partners have pledged to invest over $5 trillion in the US. Timelines are long & some pledges lack transparency & strain credibility. #PIIECharts @AdnanMazarei & Greg Auclair explore "America First" investment pledges: https://t.co/UO0q6hXszP

.@AdamPosen discusses why he thinks inflation will rise back to 4% and how the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate on the latest Odd Lots. Listen:

A better strategy for Argentina now that Milei's domestic political situation is relatively strong would be an inflation-targeting approach, which would provide a clear nominal anchor in the form of the inflation target itself, Maurice Obstfeld suggests:

The Fed may have good reason to cut interest rates more this year. But if so, it is much more likely to be in reaction to bad news, such as a deteriorating labor market, rather than the good news that an AI productivity boom has arrived, Jason Furman says: https://t.co/ZMXId6aOhV

"The WTO is the only place where the common good, on a global scale, can be addressed by any member with the ideas and drive to do so," Alan Wm. Wolff argues:

China’s redesign to its e-CNY is an indicator of a convergence with many central banks moving away from more divisive retail CBDCs towards “tokenized deposits” that can move money with new technology without disrupting banks, Martin Chorzempa writes:

Scenario planning for AI is not about predicting the future—it's about equipping institutions & policymakers with frameworks and tools that help them respond across a range of plausible outcomes, new PIIE fellow Anton Korinek & coauthor write:

Cullen Hendrix argues that the BRICS+ economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia—are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.

LISTEN: Clemens Helbach (German Embassy, Washington) joins Policy for the Planet to discuss how Germany is pursuing local community actions to reawaken public interest by improving health, safety, and lives across the country. https://t.co/RFAwmG4bCw