Nouriel Roubini
@Nouriel
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NYU Prof; Time100, FT, FP, Forbes, Coindesk Top Mind Awards. New book Megathreats: https://t.co/OGSAK3LgTF
New York, USA
Joined January 2009
Here is a link to my new paper published recently on the coming AI-driven secular boom, why Tech Trumps Tariffs, why American Exceptionalism is not over and thus the stock market is not in an AI bubble, and why the Exorbitant Privilege of the US Dollar isn’t over and thus US
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Would Seizing Kharg Island End the War? Not Even Close A growing argument suggests that capturing Iran’s Kharg Island—the terminal through which roughly 90% of its oil exports flow—could bring the conflict to a swift end. It’s an appealing idea. It’s also dangerously
Senator Graham on Iran: We’re not going to invade Iran... 90% of their income comes from oil and gas revenue. One hundred percent of that revenue-generating capability is on a single island. Mr. President, take Kharg Island—this war is over.
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Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E. They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions. https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7
wsj.com
They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions.
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I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but despite statements from the U.S. President, Iran will not surrender and will not allow completely free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is simple: Tehran understands very well that this is one of its greatest
🚨🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the
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My new op-ed on the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh seems to think that more quantitative tightening by the @federalreserve will justify much lower policy rates. But he is simply wrong about this, @Nouriel explains.
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My new op-ed: Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn
https://t.co/YkMy1OR64v For years, Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, has been staking out policy positions that would almost certainly backfire
project-syndicate.org
Nouriel Roubini doubts the next Federal Reserve chair’s theoretical views will survive an encounter with real-world markets.
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Strategic Signal Changed – Please refer to the note for details in MACRO FILES https://t.co/7GjuSdZc2d
theboombust.com
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Everyone is counting Iran’s missiles. They are counting the wrong thing. The number that determines the outcome of this war is not 2,000 or 2,500 or 3,000. Those are pre-war missile inventory estimates and they are now largely irrelevant. The number that determines the outcome
The B-2 is not a bomber. It is a key. And there is only one thing on earth it was built to unlock. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Thirty thousand pounds. The largest non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal, developed at a cost of $330 million over a decade of
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The risk: a war of attrition Even against the combined and highly capable military power of Israel and the United States, there are three things that cannot be taken from Iran: its size, its geography, and its history. All three reflect the resilience of its population and the
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Far and away the best assessment I have read so far of what’s actually going on in the Iran war
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.@alexolegimas has updated his summary of the evidence on AI and productivity. It's terrific!
At the end of January I started a "living document" tracking the impact of AI on productivity. I highlighted a disconnect: while micro studies showed a clear boost, the macro evidence was muted. I wrote that I expected this to change in the near term. Apparently "near term" is a
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Israel and the United States appear to be in an all-or-nothing gamble vis-à-vis Iran. The likelihood of another campaign of the scale we are currently seeing in the coming months or years is very low, given the heavy political and logistical constraints — not to mention the
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Trump has treated the war as an improvisational jazz session, riffing on different strategies and endgames; Iran's embattled new leaders must decide whether a pact with him will save the revolution’s life or destroy its soul. My new piece in @TheAtlantic
theatlantic.com
Tehran hopes that he will declare a hollow victory and abort the mission.
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Day 5 of #Iran vs. U.S./Israel conflict (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹There is growing concern in Iran that decapitation has become a continuing war strategy rather than a one-off strike. Iranian sources believe Washington and Tel Aviv may attempt to target the heads
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Iran – Assessment of Performance in the Campaign Against Israel and the United States Four days after the start of the war, this is the assessment that Iran’s leadership could give regarding their performance. Positive aspects from their perspective A. Missile launches
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Iran built the most comprehensive civilian surveillance network in the Middle East. Cameras on every street. Facial recognition at universities. License plate readers that automatically fined women for removing their hijab in their own cars. A mobile app called Nazer that let
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We selectively added positions in: View Macro Files: Iran Update II https://t.co/fApwDeXb3Z
theboombust.com
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Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli strike, revisit @Nouriel's 2025 commentary arguing that the collapse the Iranian regime could benefit the entire Middle East.
project-syndicate.org
Nouriel Roubini predicts that the end will come within a year, and that the Middle East as a whole will benefit.
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Iran’s Strategic Objective: Internal Stability, External Cost Imposition Over the past 24 hours, it has become increasingly clear that Iran’s leadership is prioritizing one objective above all else: projecting internal stability while imposing costs externally. Domestically,
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A Note of Strategic Humility As to continue the important remaks of @vali_nasr A central takeaway at this stage concerns the need for analytical humility regarding Iran’s breaking point. Iran is not a fragile microstate. It is a large, historically resilient country that has
Told @WSJ “Most countries in the world, if you kill its 30 top commanders, it cannot wage war, that it can last forever. But the Iranian regime has a different threshold for survival than, for example, many Arab states in the region.”
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I interviewed Jaber Rajabi, a former Iranian regime stalwart, about how many people would need to be killed, in order to effect a clean regime change in Iran. His answer: "about 10." And he knows which 10 https://t.co/x2R4XXjRQv (in @TheAtlantic)
theatlantic.com
Last month, an Iranian exile named Jaber Rajabi reached out to make a case for something between bombing Iran to oblivion and waiting for the regime to collapse.
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