Invert Man
@lazereater
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INFORMATION ONLY - NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - may be buying or selling any stock discussed at any time-Do your own homework
Joined July 2010
Joe Rogan uses ALP because it is better than ZYN, On! or Velo. That is why ALP is taking share even though it is only in less than 2000 stores vs. the others that are everywhere. $pm $on $tpb $bti $celh
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Why does Joe Rogan is ALP? Could it be because it’s the best nicotine poiuch ? $tpb $mo $pm $bti
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Why FRE and ALP are taking share from ZYN and On! Because they last longer, taste better, have better mouth feel and offer higher nicotine strengths. $TPB $MO $PM $BTI
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I want to be clear that $TPB is not $CELC. I do think that there is a lot of blue sky for $TPB in terms of potential returns but most investors in $TPB are conservative and focused on profits as well as sales growth, where as $CELC likely draws a more speculative investor set.
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$TPB Nicotine Pouch vs. $CELC in Q2 2020 at $100MM in revenues. If you assign 3X Rev. Valuation for legacy TPB then NP business valued at 10.8X today vs. $CELC at 9.1X in Q1 2020... Then by Q4 2020 CELH at $131MM revs and 29.9X Revs. At peak $CELH $1329MM Rev and 14.7X sales.
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The Great @SnubieDotCom enjoys the satisfaction of yeat another ALP Nicotone Pouch. This time, it is Spearmint. I personally enjoy both ALP and FRE which are the best pouches on the market. I love the fact that I can own stock in $TPB which makes ALP and FRE.
Let's check out @alppouch's Alp Spearmint Nicotine Pouches this afternoon! If you buy any, use our link (it helps support https://t.co/F2oZcLumvf):
https://t.co/eYZlfKwWR6
#NICOTINEPOUCHES #nicotinepouch
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Let's check out @alppouch's Alp Spearmint Nicotine Pouches this afternoon! If you buy any, use our link (it helps support https://t.co/F2oZcLumvf):
https://t.co/eYZlfKwWR6
#NICOTINEPOUCHES #nicotinepouch
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This may explain why $TPB was under pressure for the last few weeks outside of what looks like some foolish shorting:
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I am not a technical anlysis expert. For those of you that use technicals, what are your thoughts on the $TPB set up?
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I would love to hear the bear case that is driving the rise in short interest in $TPB. If it is based on promotion from ZYN and Indian tariff squeze then someone has not done their homework. Curent days to cover the short is 3.87. Is there something I am missing?
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$TPB potental near term catalysts on the horizon: (1) Indian Tarriff Deal and tariff reduction✔️ (2) $TPB Q3 Earnings (3) Near shoring cost benefit (4) PMTA aproval of FRE and ALP (5) Rollout of ALP into wholesale https://t.co/j8pqvKzXNs
reuters.com
India and the United States are nearing a long-stalled trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 15% to 16% from 50%, India's Mint reported on Wednesday citing three people...
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This is how I feel about nicotine pouches and $TPB. $PM, $MO and $BTI will all benifit but their exposure is mid to low single digit of revs. and they are $100MM+ companies vs. $TPB at $1.7B with over a quarter of Revs in NP growing much faster.
Charlie Munger: "The whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know that something is better than average — and to invest only where you have that extra knowledge." "And if you get just a few opportunities, that's enough."
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$TPB HALLUM – Eric Des Lauriers comments on Nielsen data for all of Q3 showing robust sequential growth for both FRE and ALP compared to guidance for flat sales and compared to decreasing q/q sales market leader Zyn. Sequentially, FRE sales +36%, ALP +224% and Zyn down -4%. Eric
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What I do think we see with the scanner data is an indication of is that the $TPB nicotine pouch products have a lot of traction and that ALP is beginning its roll out into stores with great success.
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Thirdly, we don’t see the untracked channels which for FRE are likely more than half of its brick and mortar sales. There the $TPB sales force picks up customers at one to ten at a time vs. hundreds at a time for tracked channels.
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Second, the online DTC sales for nicotine pouch are bigger than wholesale and are likely to see a lot less volatility
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