
James Knightley
@Knightleyeco
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ING’s Chief International Economist. Views are (sometimes) my own.
New York, USA
Joined February 2017
RT @RemyBlaireNews: "The credibility of U.S. economic data is under the microscope—and for good reason.". James Knightley @Knightleyeco, Se….
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RT @ING_Economics: 🇺🇸 We think US rate cuts could come sooner rather than later. We're now pencilling in September. Here's what ING's @knig….
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The July US jobs report has completely changed the story on the health of the economy. It no longer looks as “solid” as Chair Powell suggested with the Fed under increasing pressure to act quickly to turn things around…
think.ing.com
Weak jobs growth and huge downward revisions suggest a broad loss of momentum and a growing likelihood of meaningful interest rate cuts
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The President and Fed Chair Powell appear to be on collision course once again as the head of the central bank hints that rate cuts shouldn’t be taken for granted…
think.ing.com
While two members voted for a cut, Chair Powell put a hawkish spin on things leaving a September cut as a coin toss
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US Housing demand is weak and with supply now rising home prices are edging lower. Should they continue to fall this raises concerns and household wealth and confidence while creating more problems for the construction sector.
think.ing.com
Housing transactions are weakening amidst poor demand
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RT @ING_Economics: In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, ING's @ingafechner, @MarketsGarvey, and @Knightleyeco look at….
think.ing.com
In this podcast, our analysts explain what Trump's latest tariff delay could mean for trade, economic growth, and markets
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Respectable US jobs report suggests no Fed interest rate cuts before September, but the composition of job creation raises concerns amidst more talk of future lay-offs.
think.ing.com
The June jobs number was much stronger than expected
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Some thoughts on how quickly US interest rates will head lower…
think.ing.com
The US Fed and the interest rate question
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RT @ING_Economics: 🇺🇸 President Trump's fiscal policies, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are set to widen the US deficit by $2.4….
think.ing.com
This article explores the US fiscal position, the impact of policies, external factor sensitivities, and long-term government projections
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No surprises from the Fed today who continue to lean in the direction of rate cuts, but we doubt they will pull the trigger before December.
think.ing.com
Fed officials are still suggesting rate cuts are likely this year but probably not before December
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RT @RemyBlaireNews: "Cooling U.S. inflation boosts confidence, but will it last? James Knightly breaks down the CPI drop.” - James Knightle….
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The Fed’s wait and see stance could continue for another couple of meetings with the prospect that rate cuts come later than the markets are pricing, but the moves end up being sharper.
think.ing.com
The Federal Reserve's 'wait and see' stance could continue for another couple of meetings. Fed cuts risk coming later than markets price, but…
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1Q US GDP contracted thanks to an import surge ahead of tariffs. However broader weakness is likely in coming quarters as consumer sentiment sours and businesses sit on their hands while government continues to cut spending.
think.ing.com
The economy contracted in the first three months of the year as importers brought in goods ahead of tariffs
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US consumers have been front running tariffs, but this means weaker spending in the 2H 25 as households fear the effects of tariffs on the spending power, worries about possible job losses and thirdly a loss of wealth through falling stock and bond prices.
think.ing.com
Retail sales jumped in March on 'big ticket' items ahead of feared tariffs
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RT @ING_Economics: Tariffs - this is going to hurt. Even in America, at first. Give us a minute and watch this from our US economist @Knig….
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President Trump’s use of tariffs may eventually reap dividends from a stronger manufacturing sector, but the transition period is going to be painful.
think.ing.com
Trump's tariffs mean a painful transition ahead
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Today’s US numbers were pretty ugly and coming ahead of “Liberation Day” will only fuel fears of stagflation.
think.ing.com
Aggressive tariff moves are likely to continue the trend of hot inflation and cooling consumer spending
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The Fed left rates on hold and remain in no hurry move again, but President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are hurting growth prospects and will likely force the central bank’s hand later in the year.
think.ing.com
President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are likely to result in central bank rate cuts later in the year
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RT @ING_Economics: 🇺🇸 US inflation cooled in February, primarily due to lower airfares. But, and it's a big but. tariff fears are alread….
think.ing.com
Airfares were the catalyst for softer inflation prints in February, but the good news may not last given tariffs
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