🌊 Today in @Nature: Is the AMOC on the brink of collapse? . Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨. We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean “heat engine” running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…. Let’s explore 🧵👇

Surely the earliest April Fool’s? This idea is completely bonkers!

Grateful to be part of these projects🌊.Check them out!.

🛰️ Earth observation for Tipping Points — identifying satellite needs for monitoring tipping risks. These papers support efforts to monitor ocean change & improve models. 🔗

3️⃣ Global ocean change & tipping risks. I also contributed to two synthesis papers:. 🌊 Ocean State Report 8 — tracking changes in ocean heat, sea level, ENSO & AMOC. 🔗

We find it’s highly unlikely in today’s climate. But the risk grows as the AMOC nears a tipping point. 🔗

2️⃣ Could natural variability trigger an AMOC collapse?.🧊 ERL study led by @RuthChapman1407.

But most CMIP6 models underestimate this variability — potentially limiting how well they simulate ENSO & global ocean heat uptake. 🔗

1️⃣ Zonal wind stress & Pacific heat uptake:.📄 New Journal of Climate study led by Mike Bell!. We show zonal wind stress explains up to 80% of interannual variability in equatorial Pacific heat uptake (NSHF).

🧵 Some recent papers I’ve co-authored — spanning Pacific Ocean heat uptake, AMOC tipping risk, and the changing global ocean 🌍.

5/ AMOC weakening is expected. Collapse? Still unlikely. Let’s keep both the risks and the stakes in focus.

4/ So yes — we should take the possibility seriously. But we shouldn’t treat collapse as a likely outcome. Clear, balanced communication is key:.➡️ The consequences of collapse.➡️ The probability of it actually happening.

3/ In our recent Nature paper, we found that while weakening is very likely, collapse this century is unlikely, even under high-end warming (SSP5-8.5). Why?.Because Southern Ocean winds continue to drive upwelling that sustains a weaker — but ongoing — overturning.

2/ Even without collapse, AMOC weakening is expected, and that alone could bring serious climate impacts — from rainfall changes to sea level rise. This is a critical part of the climate system. What happens next matters.

🧵🧵🌊 What would happen if the AMOC collapsed?. New research shows the potential for extreme climate shifts — including intense European temperature swings, and global impacts. It’s a powerful warning. But is collapse actually likely this century?

RT @hausfath: I just published an explainer on aerosols and their role in the climate that I've been working on for the past few months! It….

RT @MetOffice_Sci: The @metoffice Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services is one of the world’s leading climate science institutions….

RT @hausfath: Scientists have been publishing climate models since ~1970. A good way to evaluate their skill is to compare what they expe….

RT @OceansClimateCU: Published today in the @ametsoc Journal of Climate, my rather long paper shows that the average upwelling in the equat….

RT @NatureGeosci: Article: North Atlantic Deep Water formation was only moderately weaker than present during the Last Glacial Period, even….

RT @jonbaker_ocean: 🧵 There’s been ongoing debate about the AMOC and what models really say about its collapse risk this century and beyond….