Gonzalo Varela
@gonwei
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Trade and macro economist, policy-researcher, commentator, and failed squash star in Manila. Views expressed are mine, not my employer's.
Manila City
Joined March 2012
Glad my op-ed on #Philippines growth and job journey is out in @bworldph . If you’re interested in details, see our recent report!
OPINION | Running uphill: Why growth and jobs are harder — but still worth chasing.By Gonzalo J. Varela.Read:
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Interesting blogpost on global #trade anticipating a sharp slowdown, and highlighting the momentum of #RTAs . via @WorldBank.
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Some interesting ideas about learning in the age of #GenAI.
We need to be worried by the speed with which young people are adopting AI. The economic and geopolitical consequences of AI pale alongside its educational consequences. My new @thetimes essay inspired by @nealstephenson 1/5.
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RT @nberpubs: Proposing a new approach to industrial policy measurement based on information contained in policy text, from @juhreka13, @st….
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En #Manila. #Uruguay tiene habilitado el ingreso de carnes. Para el año q viene se promociona el vino @BodegaGarzon y el bife ancho también. @UruguayXXI @Uniondeexport
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Great to see the body of good literature on #industrialpolicy growing so fast. Amazing paper on South Korea's experience.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Manufacturing Revolutions: Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea,” by Nathan Lane (@straightedge):
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6\ The so what? . #Cooperating, #Integrating and reducing regional trade costs can help tap into an important and growing market close to home. #Philippines #ASEAN.
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5\ Also, PH EII w/ ASEAN+3 has fallen since 2007. 🇨🇳🇯🇵🇰🇷 Exports to China, Japan, & Korea, Rep. have not grown in proportion to their economic weight over the past 15 years.
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4\ #Philippines' EII w/ #ASEAN has declined since 2000. Despite ASEAN’s growing GDP share, the PH share of exports to ASEAN has been flat since 2000. 👉 ASEAN is becoming more important globally—but not more important in PH trade patterns.
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3\ What is EII?.It measures how a country’s exports to a region reflect that region’s weight in the world's GDP. An EII of 1 = proportionate integration. 1 = deeper-than-expected integration.<1 = under-integration. A rising EII means exports align more w/ bloc's global weight.
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2\ This shift in global economic weight presents a huge opportunity for the #Philippines. Yet despite ASEAN’s growing clout, the Philippines' #export integration w/ ASEAN hasn’t kept pace. To understand this, we turn to the Export Intensity Index (EII).
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I've been thinking about #ASEAN and the opportunities this bloc presents, particularly as #Philippines prepares to chair in 2026. A few factoids and reflections👇👇.
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Done right, #IndustrialPolicy can:.Unlock new sectors (e.g., Chilean salmon, Brazilian aircraft).Fix coordination gaps (e.g., EVs & charging infra).Support national goals (security or green transition). Done wrong, it can trap resources, protect laggards, and worsen inequality.
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What we propose in our note is strategic pragmatism:.a) Focus on addressable market failures.b) Prioritize jobs, inclusion, and green goals.c) Use industrial policy where it makes sense, be aware where it doesn’t.d) Evaluate rigorously, adjust, and let go of failures.
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Still, the global policy landscape is changing. 2,500+ industrial measures were introduced in 2023. If rich countries subsidize key sectors, developing ones must ask: how to respond—not with copy-paste, but with context-aware strategies
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IP not for everyone. Weak institutions ->capture, conflicting policy signals-> well-meaning subsidies in costly distortions. Fixing infra or skills may work better.
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But industrial policy ≠ growth magic. It takes:.Identifying addressable market failures (e.g., info externalities, coordination failures).Having implementation capacity for the designed intervention.Building feedback loops w/pvt sector & knowing when to stop (let losers go).
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