FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
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Data-driven news and analysis from @ABC News’s 538.
Joined January 2014
Do you think the country will elect a woman president in the next 20 years?.Stacey Abrams: Yes. Do you think they'll elect a black woman?.Stacey Abrams: Yes. Do you think they'll elect you? .Stacey Abrams: Yes. That's my plan. And I'm very pragmatic.
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The 2020 presidential election map is settled. Biden will win 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
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Two more batches of Pennsylvania vote were reported: .-23,277 votes in Philadelphia, all for Biden.-about 5,300 votes in Luzerne County, nearly 4,000 of which were for Biden. *With 83% of the expected vote in, Trump’s lead in PA is now just below 6 points.
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Here’s the most disproportionately consumed Thanksgiving side dish in each region: .
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Science says toxic masculinity — more than alcohol — leads to sexual assault.
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Hillary Clinton would probably be president if James Comey hadn't sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28.
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Progressives have had a pretty good night in Texas.
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Cory Booker spoke the most words tonight. Beto O’Rourke was second. Elizabeth Warren was third. Chuck Todd, one of the debate’s moderators, spoke just 4 words less than Warren and more words than 7 of the candidates on stage.
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Note: Biden has taken the lead in Pennsylvania without the inclusion of ballots that arrived after Election Day.
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Hillary Clinton would probably be president if James Comey hadn't sent a letter to Congress on Oct. 28.
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A bullish sign for Biden in Pennsylvania -->
In Dauphin Co., Pa. (Harrisburg), almost all votes are counted and Biden leads, 53-45. In 2016, Clinton won it 49-46.
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Trump’s base alone will not be enough to win a second term.
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Here’s what your part of America eats on Thanksgiving.
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Donald Trump is unpopular enough that Republicans could lose the House in 2018:
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Voters strongly oppose a national emergency over the wall.
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We can’t believe we have to say this, but you win an election by being ahead when all the votes are counted.
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Biden is down 1,902 votes in Georgia. There are about 16,000 votes left to count. Biden needs to win 56% of what remains in order to take the lead statewide.
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The media needs to stop rationalizing President Trump’s behavior.
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Trump kept up a running commentary while Clinton was speaking, although he seldom wrested the floor from her.
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Michael Cohen is the 33rd person Mueller has charged.
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Some of the protesters inside the Capitol appear to be flying Confederate flags. That’s a pretty clear sign that at least some of the protesters are part of the white nationalist or white supremacist movement.
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Once again, immigrants commit violent crimes at lower rates than U.S.-born citizens.
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"They delivered us a clear victory, a convincing victory," Joe Biden says. Indeed, Biden’s win wasn't a landslide, by any means, but it was a thoroughly convincing one with a pretty good map.
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Another batch of around 50,000 Michigan votes just came in from heavily Democratic Wayne County (Detroit). They have now put Biden in the lead by 0.1 points. That lead could grow because Wayne has only reported 70% of its expected vote.
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🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁.🥁. ---. Set your alarms. Something big is coming tomorrow.
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Kamala Harris has been elected vice president of the United States. She becomes the first woman in American history to hold one of the top two executive offices in the U.S. She is also the first Black and Indian American vice president.
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Twitter, Facebook and Instagram have all locked President Trump’s accounts.
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The outstanding absentee ballots remaining in Georgia are mostly in blue counties.
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What Republicans and Democrats are doing in the states where they have total power:
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If Florida goes to Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33%. If we wins Georgia, his chances would go to 38%. If he won North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up. The candidate who then won Pennsylvania would be the heavy favorite.
We haven’t had any surprising projections yet in the presidential race. And plugging those into our interactive map shows that the FiveThirtyEight forecast would be about the same if it knew how those states were going to be decided -->
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Democratic-leaning suburb Oakland County in Michigan just reported 25,000 or so more votes. That has increased Biden’s margin from 0.1 points to 0.2 points statewide.
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If Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, he’s at about a 50% shot to win the Electoral College, according to our interactive map. But if Biden then wins Ohio, Trump chances plummet to 1%.
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Many more Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the pandemic than former President Donald Trump’s.
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Biden currently has 273 electoral votes. *If he holds his leads in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, he would finish with 306.
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The Democrats have 73% chance of winning control of the Senate:
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Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating:
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We've got 👀 on DeKalb county. Only 37% of the expected vote is in there. According to the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, it has one of the biggest tranches of early votes not yet counted. In November, DeKalb went for Biden by 67 points.
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We won’t be covering exit polls much at all, at least not tonight. Here’s why:
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Romney says today was about a “selfish man’s injured pride.” . When Romney ran in 2018, he implied that he was going to be the new John McCain — conservative but willing to break with the party and very norms-focused. He has lived up to that.
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Nearly all of Silicon Valley's political $'s are going to Hillary Clinton:
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The Wisconsin Elections Commission administrator has just told reporters that there are no votes left to be counted in that state. (Biden currently leads there by more than 20,000 votes.).
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Republicans are pushing, in Virginia and elsewhere, to make it harder for Democrats to win the Electoral College:
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Democrats have about a 7 in 8 chance of winning control of the House, while Republicans have a 1 in 8 chance of keeping control of the House.
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Donald Trump becomes the 10th president in United States history to lose reelection, after John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Benjamin Harrison, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
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Nearly all of Silicon Valley's political $'s are going to Hillary Clinton:
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“While I may be the first woman in this office, I will not be the last."
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There are now 122,535 absentee ballots left to be counted in Georgia, according to the Georgia secretary of state. And Trump currently has just a 38,126-vote lead over Biden in the state.
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Law enforcement officials using tear gas on protesters outside the White House to clear a path for Trump to visit a church was arguably one of most significant moments of the president breaking with the core values of American democracy.
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Presented by @WeWork: Here's why North Carolina is one of the most business-friendly states in the country.
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Biden basically has 3 “easy” paths to victory remaining. Here they are in rough order of likelihood: . 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin.
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Red and blue shifts happen. That’s not evidence of fraud.
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2/ Four surveys showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading, on average, 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
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Not only do a majority of Americans blame Trump for the riot at the Capitol and favor removing him from office, but his job approval rating has fallen faster in recent days than at any point in his presidency, according to recent polls.
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Note: Trump has sent a lot of signals that, almost no matter what the actual results, he would falsely or prematurely claim victory. In that scenario, we plan to:. -Not let false claims dominate our coverage.-Make clear why claims are false/premature.
We're waiting now for remarks from President Trump at the White House.
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Tonight will have been a big night for Democrats if they win both races. They'll have gained a trifecta in Washington, taken away power from Mitch McConnell, won two Senate seats in Georgia and elected a Black candidate in the South.
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This is an important note. They may be signaling that they will not go along with Trump efforts to stop vote counts, etc. if it is clear that Biden has won.
Portman and McConnell are among the Republican senators who are making “count every vote”-style comments that are clearly intended as pushing back against Trump.
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We have polling averages for the Georgia Senate runoff elections:. Ossoff 48.7%.Purdue 47.9%. Warnock 49.2%.Loeffler 47.0%.
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According to the Decision Desk, Biden has now taken the lead in Georgia, albeit a narrow one — just 917 votes. This is a big deal, but the race there is by no means over:
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Perdue’s lead is now down to less than 500 votes, per ABC’s count.
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Trump's lead in Georgia has dropped to 1,479 votes, according to Decision Desk HQ.
GA Presidential Election Results. Trump (R): 49.4% (2,448,056 votes).Biden (D): 49.37% (2,446,577 votes). Trump Margin: +1,479 (-318).Estimated: > 99% votes in. More results here:
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However you feel about the @AP call, Clinton is winning more:. 1. Votes.2. Delegates.3. Superdelegates.
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The Ohio businessman and first-time candidate has managed to poll higher than three current or former governors and receive about as much Google search interest as a former vice president and a former U.N. ambassador.
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YES, WE ARE RECORDING AN EMERGENCY POLITICS PODCAST.
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LOTS.OF.POLLS. *Little sign of the presidential race tightening.
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Sen. Kamala Harris, who officially announced she is running for president on @GMA this morning, has the potential to be among the strongest contenders in the Democratic field.
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Gabriel Sterling, a Republican and the voting system implementation manager for the Georgia secretary of state, just shot down Trump's false claims that votes were “found” in Georgia.
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There have been 10 Black senators in U.S. history, and none have come from Georgia. Georgia has one of the largest Black populations of any state in the country.
Georgia’s runoff system is rooted in a historic attempt to dilute Black voting power, giving white voters a second chance to mobilize and defeat Black candidates, according to experts.
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60% of guns used to commit crimes in Chicago from 2009 to 2013 originated outside of Illinois.
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Georgia’s runoff system is rooted in a historic attempt to dilute Black voting power, giving white voters a second chance to mobilize and defeat Black candidates, according to experts.
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Out of 529 total Republican nominees running for office, we found 195 who FULLY DENIED the legitimacy of the 2020 election. And an additional 61 candidates RAISED QUESTIONS around the results of the 2020 election.
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In Georgia, a reported 80,000 mail ballots are delayed in being reported in Gwinnett County because of a software error. *Those are likely very blue votes.
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Democrats are 3-0 this century when they have a Black person on the ticket, and 0-3 when they don’t.
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It’s not a landslide, by any means, but this is a map that almost any Democrat would have been thrilled about if you’d shown it to them a year ago.
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For your sleep schedule planning purposes: .-We should have near-complete unofficial results from Wisconsin early tomorrow AM.-Officials in Michigan say they’ll be done tomorrow as well.-Pennsylvania results probably won’t be known until Friday.
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New polling data suggests that Herschel Walker's abortion controversy may have cost him *some* support so far in the Georgia Senate race.
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Sen. John McCain has voted in line with Trump's position 90.7% of the time.
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Amanda Gorman, the youngest inaugural poet in U.S. history, is 🔥.
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Romney just said the best way to honor voters who are upset that Trump lost is to “tell them the truth!”
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In Georgia, Trump currently leads by 79,509 votes. The secretary of state said during an 11:30 a.m. press conference that there were still 200,000 mail-in votes and 50,000 early votes to count, mostly in Democratic-leaning counties.
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