Sir John Chipman IISS
@chipmanj
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Executive Chairman of The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Joined April 2010
Anwar to speak at Shangri-La Dialogue 2025 in Singapore | New Straits Times .Delighted that this has now been publicly announced!.
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Interesting that between 1997 and 2014 Russia was a member of the so-called G8. Tomorrow the G7 will meet, and for a period also again as the G7 plus 1. The Plus 1 will be President Zelensky of Ukraine.
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Increasing Western resupply of lethal aid to Ukraine is essential so that Russia cannot ‘impose peace terms’ on Ukraine. Resupply by the West is not escalation, it is defence; it is not NATO Article 5 engagement, it is the exercise of the UN Article 51 right to self-defence.
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In this century, no act has been so brazenly & repeatedly evil in inter-state affairs than Russia's attack on Ukraine. Every principle of international law, diplomacy, civilisation & humanity has been broken. Diplomacy is an inadequate answer, military victory is the only reply.
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Fascinating that there are some 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia and ‘leaders’ in the West are concerned that helping Ukraine target Russian positions in Russia that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians would be escalatory and turn Western countries into co-combatants.
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As Baltic states openly criticise Scholz and Macron for their calls to Putin, it looks increasingly like the balance of geopolitical influence in Europe is shifting to the East and to the North — the Franco-German engine is weakening as the main propellant of European strategy.
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The amount of times in the last month that people have cautioned against ‘escalation’ by the West in Ukraine when the actual escalation came from Putin in attacking the country is disrespectful both to Ukraine and the principles of strategy. Defence is not escalation.
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I am afraid that this is right:. Germany has become the roadblock at the heart of Europe - New Statesman
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Repeating that 'we must not push Putin into a corner' ignores the fact that he has painted himself into one already by strategic choice and appears comfortable there. The West's aim must be to defeat Putin in Ukraine, to preserve Europe's security order and then strengthen it.
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Yes! The idea that there is a balance to be struck between helping Ukraine but not directly hurting Russia too much is well past its sell by date. The ethical and strategic priority is to win fast, before these conscripts are thrown in to die, yet still only slow the advance.
How Western allies must response to conscription in 🇷🇺?.1. Ramstein Activation.2. HIMARS and shells for artillery.3. ATACMS.4. No "taboo" on tanks and armored personnel carriers.5. Military training centers.🇺🇦 defends not only itself, but also European borders. Isn’t it obvious?.
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Ukraine is lawfully exercising its UN Article 51 right of self-defence, and the European security order is a core interest of the West. It is strategically illiterate to think or argue differently. Thus, there should be no conventional arms control, or ‘end-user’ restrictions,.
Countries which think that by acquiring US weapons systems they are also securing a greater defence guarantee should think again: they may simply be acquiring red lines. Going European may be the wiser choice.
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The end of French exceptionalism. Once you claim your main role to be a mediator between right and wrong, days of grandeur are over. ‘Saving face’ is a weak diplomatic aim; Putin can take personal responsibility for his face. Humiliation: a mild punishment for war crimes.
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Robert Gates arrives at the strategically correct judgement in this concluding paragraph in the @FinancialTimes today.
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Perhaps a journalist can ask the White House to explain why the US and other Western countries are obsessively worried about risks of ‘escalation’ in Russia’s war on Ukraine …. and why Russia is apparently not in the least worried about escalation, or what the West might do.
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It was never about NATO.
Dmitry Medvedev says that Russia will not stop the war even if Ukraine rejects NATO membership. A reminder to those who overplay the role of NATO expansion in triggering this war.
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Lithuanian defence minister Kasciunas at IISS Prague Defence Summit, says that in NATO the new floor for defence spending should be 3%, Lithuania will move soon towards 4%. To build defence capability, Europe needs ‘not just new production lines but new factories.’.
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There was a self-congratulatory tone to this year’s Munich Security Conference as Americans & Europeans praised the fact that they had stayed united when it was thought that Putin would divide them & weaken the resolve to defend Ukraine. Yet that success was bought at a cost 1/5.
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An unfortunate intervention by Dr Kissinger at #wef22 — There is no strategic reason for Ukraine to concede its sovereignty to Putin, and every strategic reason for the West to support Kyiv to defeat Putin. There is no reason to be frightened of victory.
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Defence is not escalation. Unfortunately, this needs to be repeated every day.
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This is why a coalition of Western states should develop a strategy forcibly to open the Black Sea. It cannot be right that Putin can unilaterally control food exports from Ukraine. Russia’s foreign minister threatens to scrap Ukraine grain deal via @FT.
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It is extraordinary to recall that NATO invoked the ‘responsibility to protect’ doctrine to support intervention in Libya, but cannot quite bring itself to do so in the case of Ukraine. Those in the Middle East who often complain of ‘double standards’ may ironically have a point.
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If that is the case, then there should logically not be any out-sized fear of escalation, that can in any case be actively deterred. Strategic advantage can be recovered only if strategic literacy is regained. Defence is not escalation. Counterattack is necessary for defence. 5/5.
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Three more awkward questions:. What is the point of Western countries announcing a ‘pivot to Asia’ or an ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’, if when Asia’s super-rogue state — North Korea — comes knocking on Europe’s door with soldiers armed by the enemy to kill Europeans, the door is left.
Fascinating that there are some 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia and ‘leaders’ in the West are concerned that helping Ukraine target Russian positions in Russia that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians would be escalatory and turn Western countries into co-combatants.
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The recriminations are mounting up in Russia on the failing war. When asked by State TV what has to be done, the answer comes back fast from a Colonel General and member of the Duma — . ‘First, the lying has to stop.’. This will turn into quite an internal struggle in Russia.
State Duma Defense Committee's head Andrey Kartapolov told a disappointed propagandist Vladimir Solovyov that aside from not having enough uniforms and equipment for its forces, Russia may not have enough munitions to destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure.
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It still baffles me that winning appears off the table as a strategy. What’s so bad about winning? It would restore the European security order on which the West depends and allow more effort to go toward Asia. A frozen conflict ties down resources of all kinds and curtails.
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Many wars end with a military solution. The West should ensure that the right side wins. It should not just hope that the wrong side gets bogged down. And it should not permit a diplomatic solution that gives any gains to the wrong side. The right side needs more military aid.
The chancellor of Germany said that a military solution to the war in Ukraine “makes no sense” and urged for a diplomatic solution. I urge @OlafScholz to come to Mariupol and try his “diplomatic solutions” to stop Russian shelling.
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This is a fair accusation. It is unlikely that the rail route will be adapted fast enough to get grain to markets in Africa and Asia or that negotiations will unlock the Black Sea. Putin has shut the Sea. More consideration needs to be given to how the Sea is forcibly re-opened.
#Russia's maritime blockade of Ukraine’s grain exports is a war crime, according to #EU's top diplomat Borrell .
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It might be interesting if in the U.K. and EU, a five minute excerpt of Russian state TV were shown on a regular basis. Fair reporting would be to show to Western publics, not just specialists who follow this, what Russian state TV is saying to its public every day #justathought.
Putin's propagandists on state TV casually discuss terrorist acts against Americans and murdering liberal opposition, all of whom they suspect of working with Western intelligence agencies. They openly advocate murdering Ilya Ponomarev, who lives in Kyiv.
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Putin’s Russia has displaced a quarter of the Ukrainian population. No one should get excited by a peace process that is being conducted by Russia as ‘war by other means.’ It cannot be permitted to gain war aims through diplomatic pretence. More military aid and sanctions needed.
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The argument that Germany cannot give more arms to Ukraine because it needs them to deter Putin who understands only force is doubly strategically illiterate: assist the country fighting Russia so you don’t have to; and if he only understands force, give Ukraine what it needs.
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‘Special military operation is going according to plan,’ says Putin — So this the plan 👇He has confirmed it.
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This is weakly argued. Sweden and Finland would be net assets not net liabilities for NATO.
If Sweden and Finland aren’t secure enough with their own armies, then bringing them into NATO might create a major new vulnerability for the alliance just as the chances of conflict with Russia are rising. @CChivvis highlights this dilemma:
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And some people worry that delivery of better NATO standard equipment to Ukraine would be ‘escalatory.’ . The biggest fight on this issue is against strategic illiteracy:. Defence is not escalation.
British intelligence says over 2.5 million Ukrainians, including children, have been forcibly deported to camps inside Russia. That’s the equivalent of emptying Chicago.
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Assuming this continues, it is also a rebuttal to the evidence-free claim that Ukrainian gains would lead to unacceptable escalation. When Russia has lost a battle it has 1) retreated, 2) changed course, 3) claimed victory anyway or 4) announced a decision to extend 'goodwill'.
Indeed. Surface to sea missiles along the Ukrainian coast forced the 🇷🇺 Black Sea fleet to keep its distance. That plus the recovery of Snake Island did the trick in military terms. Fighting back pays. And the world will benefit as Ukrainian foodstuff is made available again.
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It may be valuable to recall that the West has nuclear weapons too and that principles of deterrence can be made to operate, but only in circumstances where one does not speak only about what one will not do, or cede escalation dominance automatically to the opponent.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warns against open conflict with Russia that could lead to nuclear war
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How much of the West will we allow to remain? That is the question, for Russian State TV. The 'precautionary principle' would require the West to take this seriously . .
Pundit on Russian state TV reports that the question he is asked most frequently by everyday Russians is: "When will all of this end?" State TV experts respond: "Never." They predict: "There will be more special operations," Russia will decide "how much of the West will remain."
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It is an outrageous strategic fallacy to argue that defence cannot include counterattack against invading forces firing from their own territory. A Russian artillery piece 1 mile inside Ukraine is fair game but if one is firing 1 mile inside Russia it is not? ‘Gentlemen, please.’.
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I don’t see why our major diplomatic or strategic concern should be focused on preventing the ‘humiliation’ of Putin. Keep it simple. This invader needs to be repelled, for he is repellent. Do not treat foreign policy as an esoteric branch of psychiatry. Stratégie Oblige….
Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community
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‘Offensive’ Arms = RETREAT. BBC - ‘Ukraine says a significant number of Russian warships in the Black Sea were moved from Crimea further east to the port of Novorossiysk. This comes after Kyiv received further deliveries of longer-range missile systems from its Western allies.’.
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Some rhetorical flourishes here from President Zelensky that should rightly find their way into a Dictionary of Wartime Quotations.
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The US wants Europe to do more; Ukraine does not want to surrender; and Europe wants a say on the continents’s security, while retaining American engagement. The way to resolve all three of these dilemmas is for the UK and Europe to seize Russian assets and use some of them to.
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Putin may be hypersensitive to perceived provocation, but he has demonstrated hyper-responsiveness to perceived license. As the West has pedantically debated what it would not do, his room for destructive manoeuvre has grown. He has exploited our fears…3/5.
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Europe has huge leverage over Russia that it is not using as so- called Ukraine peace talks begin. Here is the precedent for what should be done: After Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi army was ejected from Kuwait following its illegal invasion of its neighbour, some of Iraq’s frozen.
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Escalation is what Russia has done. Change the balance of power so that Ukraine can win decisively. Escalation dominance is needed. Russia can’t win a war against the West. Russia already blames the West for its defeats. The West need not be shy to co-author a Ukrainian victory.
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Photograph taken at the G20. My contribution to any caption contest:. ‘Is this a partnership with no limits, or what…’. I am sure others could do better with this striking image.
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This is not a ‘crisis’, it is a war of aggression in Europe. Ukraine has every UN Article 51 right to ask for whatever it needs to free their country. NATO states should confidently provide that directly as needed and not cede by default ‘escalation dominance’ to Russia.
Of course, the US should be mindful of needlessly escalating the crisis. But the best way to prevent the war from spilling over is to give the Ukrainians what they need to win. @PostOpinions.
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Russia has upended the European security order and for months the West has openly worried about the risks of escalation. In the Cold War our mantra was flexible response and escalation dominance. In this hot war we have practised sequential response and shown escalation fear.2/5.
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The Biden multilateralist catch phrase: ‘America is back’, just does not quite sound right today for some reason.
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Putin has twice retreated rather than ‘escalated’ in Ukraine. Once when he lost the battle for Kyiv and again when he lost Snake Island. The assumption that Western countries could not maintain both escalation dominance and control in a variety of scenarios is mis-placed.
US government should give Ukraine ATACMS now. With it, Ukraine can cripple Russian ability to hold on to the land they have seized - by taking out the Kerch bridge, for example, or supply depots in Crimea and yes, Russia. No reason not to, other than unwarranted self-deterrence.
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If Belarus troops deploy to attack N.E. Ukraine then why should NATO states not act?. Belarus has changed its constitution to allow nuclear weapons on its territory but there are none there. Western powers should consider preempting the threat to Volyn so as to deter escalation.
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… and the West has not cashed in on its substantial strategic advantage. Overwhelming conventional force could defeat Russia at this time. The US Secretary of State said in Munich that Ukraine will win because Ukrainians are fighting for their territory and Russians are not. 4/5.
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There will be replies that say this decision is ‘escalatory’ and ‘NATO should not be involved’ and Turkiye’s decision ‘means NATO is now drawn in to WW3.’ States have agency without requiring a NATO badge. A Free and Open Black Sea for licit trade is a legitimate strategic goal.
BREAKING: Turkey detains a Russian cargo ship possessing grain stolen from Ukraine.
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Indeed. Ukraine is holding NATO’s front line against what NATO has regarded as its peer competitor:. Ukraine expelling Russia from its territory reduces substantially the threat to NATO. The depletion of national stocks to support Ukraine is a vital mission, not a worrying loss.
NATO-GS Stoltenberg:.- Lieferung von Waffen an die Ukraine wichtiger als Erfüllung der NATO-Fähigkeitsziele.- Wenn Russland nicht gewinnt, stärkt das unsere Sicherheit und Sicherheit der NATO.Also: Jetzt mehr liefern, Offensive der Ukraine unterstützen.
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At Madrid summit, NATO should say: 'NATO considers the NATO-Russia Founding Act as having been breached by Russia and is now void, given its disregard for the sovereignty of states and its lack of restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe.' Can 30 agree to that?.
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Russia’s Kalibr attack on Odessa port the day after an agreement is signed with Turkey and the UN to facilitate grain exports is evidence that Putin’s diplomacy is fraudulent in both form and content. The Black Sea is not a Russian lake; it needs forcibly to be re-opened.
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Clear strategic assessment. A Norwegian NATO Secretary General, in common with his colleagues from the North of Europe, speaks in precise terms of the threat. Western Europeans must accept that the geo-political centre of gravity in Europe is shifting to the East and North.
“The price we pay is measured in currency. They price they pay is measured in lives lost every day. So we should stop complaining and step up and provide support.”.
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President of the Republic of Finland cites Henry Kissinger maxim in his New Year speech: ‘whenever avoidance of war has been the primary objective of a group of powers, the international system has been at the mercy of its most ruthless member.’
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In my view, many people worry that Putin is hyper-sensitive to perceived provocation; the far greater concern is that he is hyper-responsive to perceived license. He must not be told what is his manoeuvre space; instead he must be made to worry that he has none. Deterrence. .
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Exactly. The strategically wise, and ethically correct thing to do, after the Ukrainian armed forces have auditioned before Western leaders their military resolve and talents, is immediately to change radically the balance of power in their favour, so this conflict can end soon.
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It is quite something to say one can’t send tanks to Ukraine when it is fighting a war with Russia in case: what?! Germany needs them for a NATO obligation? That would arise soon if Russia gets to Germany. Better to stop them earlier: NATO needs forward defence - supply Ukraine.
“…we have found that it simply does not work” because Germany would not be able to fulfill its national defense obligations as well as its obligations in the NATO military alliance if it were to give away tanks from its active military force,”
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This young person just wants to be in her rental flat in Kyiv, working in her chosen profession, and seeing her friends. Putin has dictated that she can’t do that because Ukraine needs to be ‘de-nazified.’ The European security order will be restored when she can safely go home.
This woman changed a part of me when I first saw this from @BylineTV. I will never forget her. "I don't feel myself anymore. I'm a different person. I was a journalist, very proud of myself & glamorous. Now I'm a refugee". Everything can become nothing.
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Interesting that in this exchange the Russian hawks, who presumably were ‘provoked’ by the decision of various former Warsaw Pact states to join NATO out of fear of Russia, argue that the military capacities of the ‘collective West’ are exaggerated. So what’s the problem then?.
Meanwhile in Russia: sane voices who say that Putin's military adventure should be put to an end ASAP are contradicted by rabid propagandists who allege that both the military might and the unity of the Western countries exist only on paper.
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Yes. Defence is not escalation. It just has to be repeated until strategic illiteracy wanes definitively and irreversibly. @Kasparov63.
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Ok, I know this is your special subject, but really?.
John Kerry urges Putin to not let Ukraine invasion distract from combating climate change
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The first point in this tweet thread by @JosepBorrellF is vitally important. It is the EU acknowledging the inescapable fact that this war actually requires a military solution.
Touched by the resilience, determination and hospitality of @ZelenskyyUA & @Denys_Shmyhal. I return with a clear to do list:. 1. This war will be won on the battlefield. Additional €500 million from the #EPF are underway. Weapon deliveries will be tailored to Ukrainian needs.
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This is a strange debate. Defeat is humiliation. You don’t aim not to defeat because the aggressor may be humiliated. What kind of military or diplomatic strategy is that? Once in a war aim to win. Humiliation can be dealt with afterwards with what is usually a successor regime.
I can understand why this comment makes people angry, but I suspect Macron is drawing on a specific set of historical memories, namely the role of humiliation in Germany after the Great War that paved the way not just for the rise of Hitler, but for World War II.
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Well done. The foundational error of the 'negotiate now' fraternity is the presumption that this war is principally about specific contested territory, so a territorial compromise can end it. It is not, so it can't.
Six months of war. Six months of people calling for negotiations with Moscow. Six months of futility. A quick 🧵 in response to the latest from Anatol Lieven. /1.
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Those European states who hold Russian state assets should quickly pass the domestic legislation to seize those assets—legal under the principle of state countermeasures to an illegal war — and use those assets to compensate Ukraine for its losses and buy more defence equipment.
Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good. This is what we now know, and what we now have to do about it:🧵1/17.
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Yes, the domestic legislation needs to be passed in the US, Canada, U.K., EU and Switzerland to move from freezing to seizing Russia’s state assets. Putin’s war chest needs to be turned into Ukraine’s reparations fund. And that work should start now.
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I imagine that he looked in the mirror as he drafted this speech and wrote down what he saw.
This is rich coming from Putin, who thinks he’s Peter the Great reincarnate, taking back historical territories.
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Exactly, which is why the West must change the balance of power definitively in Ukraine’s favour and stop worrying about what might be ‘escalatory.’ An alliance (NATO), that had ‘flexible response’ at the core of its strategy in the Cold War needs to recover its muscle memory.
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NATO leaders have consistently said that they would defend every inch of NATO territory. This must include maritime frontiers. Romania’s and Bulgaria’s frontiers at sea are now highly exposed. Western navies should seek permission to enter Black Sea for humanitarian purposes.
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The judgement is evidence-based. Russia has attacked the largest European country. Ukraine has a UN Article 51 right of self defence and others have the legal right to assist Ukraine directly to exercise that right. Ukraine is battling Russia; others can accelerate its defeat.
@chipmanj @kajakallas When they tell us we must go to war with Russia? 𝗡𝗢!. We know all ths same facts, and can understand that their "different experience" makes them hate and fear Russia the same way many Latin Americans do the US. And that this biases their judgment. It is not sage expert advice.
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Basic facts:.-It’s not a human right to travel to the EU.-Finland borders the Schengen area and has responsibilities to the rest of it. -Russia has invaded Ukraine to absorb it. -Putin controls public opinion. -His imperialist goals are not shaped by the level of public support.
@chipmanj Really surprised that collective punishment is embraced in this regressive manner in 2022, with little regard for the long-term consequences. How can it be irrelevant for Europe whether Putin gains the support of another 30M Russians?.
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A Pentagon official on possible outcomes of Russia's war against Ukraine:.'It is best to admit that there are a range of possibilities and try to think through how we would deal with each. ' .Why not help Ukraine counter-attack to win? Escalate defence to win, so Putin retreats.
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On this point, my vote on the jury is: Russian use of a non-strategic nuclear weapon should result in an overwhelming conventional response by the West on Ukraine's side to eject Russia from all Ukraine that could include attacks on Russian positions in Russia. No need for nukes.
(6/10) But public signals suggest to Russia that there would be no nuclear response. If so, is it a good thing (it would not be credible to agitate such a threat, and public opinions would panic). or is it a bad thing (Putin sees us as having no guts)? The jury is out.
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While it is better for the US to allow the use of ATACMS on Russian positions in Kursk oblast than not doing so, the strategic absurdity of drawing a boundary around an oblast as a clear line that would ex hypothesi not inspire ‘escalation’ is astounding. A reminder: to defeat.
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Please retweet if you did NOT expect as a defence, national security, or international relations expert that in 2023 you would have seriously to display your longstanding interest in — and knowledge of — balloons.
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Remember those un-strategic debates in March about why one could only send defensive arms to Ukraine because ‘offensive’ arms would be ‘provocative’ or ‘escalatory’?. This is why counter-attack is good. It makes the invader retreat. Time to stop saying defence is escalatory.
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Brilliant piece, with this ‘kicker’: . ‘If you are a good comedian in the U.S., you can have a late-night show. If you are a good comedian in Ukraine, you can destroy Russia.’ . Why Ukraine Is the Best Place to be a Comedian - The Atlantic
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This is analytically weak. There is no 'very fine line between appeasement . and apocalypse'; there is a huge yawning space between these two extremes which can be filled by incremental increases in military pressure that can assure victory. Escalation step by step can work.
@vs_1944 @Marco_UKII @chipmanj @kajakallas I get it, Russia bad. The trouble with "punishment" is that Russia can punish, too. We have a very dangerous situation. Honestly I don't know if we can survive it but the way to do that is to walk a very fine and tortuous line between twin pitfalls of appeasement and apocalypse.
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The simplest reply to this question is that: ‘Every country has a legal right to provide such military means as are necessary to assist Ukraine exercise it’s UN Article 51 right to self-defence.’.
NEW: Nato is not in a proxy war with Russia, the Defence Secretary insists. Ben Wallace tells @TimesRadio: 'It's not the case. It's what Moscow would like us to believe. to use as a justification' for invasion. UK military aid to Ukraine is legal 'mutual self defence', he says.
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I urge you to stop being so 'NATO-centric' in your analysis. Self-Defence and Collective Self-Defence are covered by UN Article 51. Western states in their public narrative should have emphasised from the start that their military support was based in these UN Charter rights.
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India does not need to ‘choose sides.’ But it can take a position in favour of the rules-based order and against unprovoked aggression against another country with maximalist goals. Russia’s strategic currency is weakening. Strategic hedging requires active portfolio management.
The United States values its strategic autonomy. So should India. Undermining New Delhi's time-tested ties with Moscow would make India dependent on America, whose unpredictability is legendary, which even American analysts acknowledge.
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No one is threatening the Russian state.
@chipmanj And where exactly does escalation go? We are closing in on threatening the Russian state itself. Russia is not threatening America, at least not yet. But it is getting closer. They have greater incentives 2 escalate.
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If, as the U.K. defence chief asserts, Russia has ‘already lost the war’ in Ukraine, then it is hardly escalatory to replenish Ukraine’s tank losses or to further support Kiev militarily completely to repel the invaders.
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Leaving aside the important detail that even the security concerns Russia cites are illegitimate. Just because you enunciate a concern does not make it legitimate.
Unfortunately the "Russian legitimate security concerns" narrative remains a pervasive element of the analytical framework many Western leaders maintain - to this day.
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Territorial concessions would not have prevented the invasion. Putin had said Ukraine was not a nation. When he began 'his special military operation', his intent was to rid the nation he did not recognise of its leaders. Putin's diplomacy is fraudulent in both form & substance.
@chipmanj Please note: Not Macron, but Zelensky & Biden both (according to the western press) mentioned territorial concessions to Russia. Why didn’t they follow Macron’s advice & offered their territorial compromise ideas to Putin before the hideous Russian invasion?.
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‘Germany’s vulnerability to economic corruption is systemic. And that is a security risk — not just to Europe, but to the western alliance. Germany needs a parliamentary commission of inquiry. It is time for a comprehensive reckoning.’. Strong stuff! .
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Interesting photograph from four years ago.
I just met with @VP-elect Pence at the @WhiteHouse to offer our support for a smooth, seamless transition of power:
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Exactly:. ‘Should Western leaders, through their passivity or reluctance, bring about a cease-fire that leaves Russia with Ukrainian territory under its control, they would disgrace themselves as much the French and British leaders did at Munich in 1938—and with less excuse.’.
Language matters. It is not enough to say we want Ukraine to defend itself - we want it to win. It is not enough to say we want to stop Russia - we want to defeat it. And that means a lot more fighting and the liberation of occupied Ukrainian territories.
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@andersostlund Western navies should be permitted to enter the Black Sea to ensure it is 'free and open' for vital commercial trade and especially the export of food supplies so essential for the Middle East and North Africa. See Article 18 (d) of the Montreux Convention on Humanitarian Purpose.
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Will France offer to work on nuclear propulsion with India? There may be a demand pull here…👇.
'Australia may have opened the door for India. Like Rafale, a submarine deal is critical'. Lt General Prakash Menon @prakashmenon51, director of Strategic Studies Programme at Takshashila Institution, writes. #ThePrintOpinion.
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If verified, further proof that a Russian war aim is literally to strip Ukrainians of their nationality. This is not just an assault on territorial sovereignty, but on a nation.
#Mariupol deputy mayor Andryushchenko: for the first time yesterday the occupiers officially stole the citizenship of a Ukrainian kid in Mariupol. They issued the first birth certificate on the form of the moscow's proxy "dnr"
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Why I worry about the loss of the West’s political-military muscle memory:. -Defence not escalatory.-Defence requires counter-attack.-It is right to change the balance of power to restore a balance of power.-Russia must be made to fear the risks of escalation.-Called: deterrence.
Macron re:transferring Leclerc tanks to Ukraine:.=> not excluding it, a collective question.=> 3 criteria.1/that it not be escalatory.2/looking at UKR maintenance capacity+training time to use tanks.3/not weaken FR defense capabilities."working on it in coming days and weeks".
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