bcCOVID19group
@bcCOVID19group
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Updates from https://t.co/vrRX794vjQ
Joined August 2021
New post: COVID Model Projections - January 25, 2023; https://t.co/zpPwuOr8pP
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-seventh report](/post/2023-01-25-report/COVID19group-2023-01-25.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (January 25th, 2023). SARS-CoV-2...
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New post: COVID Model Projections - November 23, 2022; https://t.co/750yNE2ez4
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-sixth report](/post/2022-11-23-report/COVID19group-2022-11-23.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (November 23rd, 2022). Omicron...
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New post: COVID Model Projections - October 5, 2022; https://t.co/DxmoFGnuE4
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TAKE HOME: BA.5 wave has not fallen fast, potentially due to waning of immunity from previous infections. BA.5 poses a much higher (100X) risk of infection than reported. So stay safe, especially as we return to school and crowded indoor environments 😷💉🌬️🪟 4/4
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Our previous report noted that cases were being underreported by about ~100-fold in BC. Dr. Skowronski of BCCDC has since shared serology data confirming this finding (92-fold underreporting since March 2022). 3/4
medrxiv.org
Background We chronicle SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence through eight cross-sectional sero-surveys (snapshots) in the Lower Mainland (Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley), British Columbia, Canada from...
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Similar declines n BA.5 were seen in other provinces. But the declines weren't as swift as expected for epidemic waves. The extended waves are consistent with a rising number of susceptible individuals (e.g., due to waning immunity) or with more risky behaviour. 2/4
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12 Sep 2022: A short @bcCOVID19group modelling update on the state of the BA.5 wave: Cases among those over 70 (a more consistently tested age group) started falling at the end of August in BC. 1/4
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New post: COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022; https://t.co/SBNbasSlXI
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-fourth report](/post/2022-08-17-report/COVID19group-2022-08-17.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report...
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New post: COVID Model Projections - August 17, 2022; https://t.co/SBNbasSlXI
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-fourth report](/post/2022-08-17-report/COVID19group-2022-08-17.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (August 17th, 2022). This report...
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(1) There are more infections on the way down than up; & remember, we're near the peak! (2) We don't even know how high the risk of infection is now (how high is this peak?), because of low (& unknown) testing rates, even among the 70+ (3) Help protect yourself & others 😷🪟🏞️ 💉
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This is good news: the data suggest that immune evasion for BA.5 did not create a much larger pool of susceptible individuals, and it’s spread is now being stopped by the additional immunity of recent cases and vaccines. A couple notes of caution:
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BA.5 has also crested in Quebec and is close in Ontario. Team member Dean Karlen finds similar signs of cresting across Europe ( https://t.co/1ESVIOIsHq).
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👀 Where are we now in the BA.5 wave? Combining the publicly shared genomic data with the cases reported among those over 70 (a more reliably tested population) indicates that the BA.5 has now crested in BC.
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Looking at the trends among those over 70 and adding projections for the different sub-types of Omicron gives the following picture for the BA.5 wave in British Columbia. Current growth r=2.6% per day (slightly slower than last report🤞).
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A brief update based on the latest genomic data in Canada (GISAID): BA.5# continues to rise in frequency relative to BA.2#, with a similar strength of selection as in the last report (s=12% per day), with BA.4# less favoured over BA.2# (s=8%) and now declining slowly.
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👀 Video explainer added by @eric_cytryn. Want a guide through what is happening with BA.5 in BC and across Canada? Take a look 👀
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New post: COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022; https://t.co/a1Tdr2cURU
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-third report](/post/2022-07-13-report/COVID19group-2022-07-13.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report...
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New post: COVID Model Projections - July 13, 2022; https://t.co/a1Tdr2cURU
bccovid-19group.ca
The BC COVID-19 Modelling team issued their [twenty-third report](/post/2022-07-13-report/COVID19group-2022-07-13.pdf) on the status of COVID-19 in British Columbia (July 13th, 2022). This report...
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@COVIDimmunityTF On the negative side, the genetic changes in BA.4 & BA.5 make these variants harder for our immune systems to recognize ( https://t.co/ZploL4SJbU). What is clear is that the third Omicron wave is here and risk levels should rise again over the next month. Stay tuned!
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How high will this BA.4 & BA.5 wave be? On the positive side, our immunity (antibody levels) is currently high, due to vaccinations and the large number of previous Omicron infections. [Data from @COVIDimmunityTF 🇨🇦] https://t.co/L5IlHVyHjX
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