Alex Mukhin
@alex__mcl
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Experimenting @r8rate Co-founder @mpost_io
Joined April 2020
opinion markets are basically tokenization of opinions with @r8rate a take isn't just a tweet that disappears in the feed it becomes a position: priceable, tradable, measurable a living signal of what the crowd believes right now - not what a poll said last week
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prediction markets are information tools the antidote to fake news isn't fewer signals - it's better incentives pms put skin in the game: if u push a false narrative - u lose money prices update with new evidence and the full history is public that's a powerful misinfo filter
i think that the creep of unrestricted gambling (and also just gambling in general) into news and politics and every facet of daily life is one of the great mortal perils we face right now. we must completely eradicate it.
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5/5 @r8rate is built for this: continuous, no-resolution markets where you can long or short sentiment and watch a real-time on-chain barometer price the crowd
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4/5 in an opinion market claims don't just get replies - they get prices that turns the market into a self-regulating fact-checker: if someone shills or lies others can profit by taking the other side and correcting the signal
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3/5 so why limit opinion markets to stocks? every project, founder, product or narrative has a tradable public sentiment curve - and that sentiment moves before facts are widely accepted
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2/5 Keynes called it a beauty contest: you don't pick what you like - you pick what you think the crowd will pick profits come from anticipating shifts in collective opinion
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1/5 the stock market is the biggest opinion market on earth prices aren't 'truth' - they're bets on what other people will believe tomorrow
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building it on @base @buildonbase some details: https://t.co/NSFqprRGE4 feedbacks wishlist @jessepollak
@RyanGittleson
@davidtsocy
@HoolieG
@asal_alizade
@XenBH
@sfrankel9
@Nibel_eth
@CryptoStatuette
@svmvn
@saxenasaheb
@0xyoussea
@_clemens__
devfolio.co
Continuous on-chain sentiment markets
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prediction markets = who will win opinion markets = what people think about candidates candidate can be widely disliked but still favored to win - prediction markets capture the outcome, not the sentiment that's why I'm building @r8rate to measure the sentiment layer directly
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Tune in tomorrow at 5 p.m. GST for our video livestream: “Prediction Markets Supercycle”, powered by Hack Seasons. Speakers: Ali (@AliHabbabeh), Co-founder at @xodotmarket Arsenii (@iatskar), Founder at @gondorfi Jong-Chan Chung (@guyukyukgu), CEO and Co-Founder at @trepa_io
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opinion markets create a new category of information-linked (or sentiment-linked) contracts @r8rate is the protocol that issues and trades them the core: market-based properties backed by real capital instead of follower counts or engagement hacks
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on @r8rate u’ll be able to trade any rankings and bet on who deserve to be included
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my feed is 90% of prediction markets, 10% of @AutismCapital looks like a perfect mix
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teams who 'endure multiple years of near-certain death' are unstoppable @Kalshi @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara
Paradigm has invested in Kalshi over three sequential rounds this year, alongside our friends at Sequoia and a16z. It’s one of the fastest growing companies we’ve ever seen. Prediction markets are a civilization-scale truth telling machine, but they’re also a kind of
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prediction markets will be huge for marketing, agreed but they're mostly about outcomes (will we hit X?) opinion markets are about perception (do people trust/love this?) that's the layer cmo actually manages day-to-day. @r8rate makes it tradable + measurable
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me in the middle of the night scrolling feed and looking where else I should bull-style reply about opinion markets
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