Mantic
@_Mantic_AI
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Mantic is an AI research and product company focussed on judgemental forecasting.
Joined August 2025
I had a fun conversation with superforecaster @rdeneufville on his podcast! We discuss: 🤖 How does AI compare to human superforecasters? 🧱 Is there a data wall? ⏱️ Why to expect fast progress on sub 1-year prediction horizons 🔎 The importance of asking the right question
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The Market Pulse competition is for finance predictions: company earnings, treasury yields etc. We competed in Q3 and finished: - 19th / 122 entrants - Highest ever AI - 2.3x the score of the next best AI 🎯 Our best prediction was Nvidia forward guidance on margins (bullish).
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For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion w/those of @metaculus forecasters & AI forecasts from @_Mantic_AI Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with @metaculus at the link below
🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy -Expert ratings unchanged since April but down substantially since January -US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy -Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017 Report link and full 🧵 of results ↓
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We've been assembling a world-class technical team, and we're only just getting started. If you are reading this, you are still early. 🚀
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Mantic CEO @tshevl explained to The Guardian how Mantic's predictions often disagreed with the human consensus. Forecasting is the next grand challenge for AI: 🟢 Requires reasoning and research 🟢 Can't be gamed 🟢 Transformative potential for business & policy
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We chose the Metaculus Cup because they ask genuinely important questions, including geopolitics and economics. E.g. check out the questions on which we got our best scores:
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Mantic got over 2x the score of the next best AI system. We significantly exceeded expectations, even among the other forecasters in the tournament. In July the Metaculus community predicted only a 5-10% chance any AI system would score as well as we did:
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A historic milestone for the AI community: Mantic has been quietly participating in a forecasting tournament against 550 humans all summer. We finished 8th, beating some pro forecasters.
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Forecasting requires deep research and reasoning, so computer models don't beat the top humans. Our system thinks like a human forecaster, but with digital speed and scale. We'll deploy this capability to power radically improved decision-making in business and government.
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We aim to exceed the accuracy of human superforecasters on questions about geopolitics, business, technology, culture, and policy. Our latest system sets a new AI state of the art, backtested on 348 questions from Q2 2025.
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Today, Mantic comes out of stealth. We’ve raised a $4m pre-seed led by @Episode1VC, w backing from @DRWTrading & leading AI researchers. Our team comes from Google DeepMind, Citadel, research at Oxford and Cambridge, and Foresight Data Machines.
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Mantic is a world-class technical team on a mission to solve the next AI grand challenge: predicting global events with superhuman accuracy. https://t.co/drL4HagUic
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