Dr. Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
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Climate scientist-communicator focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet.
Boulder, CO
Joined November 2013
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Just kind of obsessing over the amazing and perfectly-framed satellite imagery today of the inbound California storm. This is a *textbook* mid-latitude cyclone, with well-defined warm and cold fronts, and it's even developing an eye-like feature near its center.
#CAwx
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I've watched a lot of wildfire-associated pyroconvective events during the satellite era, and I think this might be the singularly most extreme I've ever seen. This is a literal firestorm, producing *thousands* of lightning strikes and almost certainly countless new fires.
#BCwx
Absolutely mind-blowing wildfire behavior in British Columbia.
Incredible & massive storm-producing pyrocumulonimbus plumes.
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Amazing to consider that in past 12 hours the U.S. West has seen devastating (record) flooding in Montana near Yellowstone, extreme wildfire activity in Arizona that visually resembles an erupting volcano amid (record) drought, & post-wildfire debris flows in northern California.
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The wildfire situation in California and Oregon has now escalated to the point that I can no longer keep track of the countless massive, fast-moving, and potentially very dangerous fires. The geographic scale and intensity of what is transpiring is truly jarring.
#CAwx
#ORwx
There's so much burning right now on the West Coast.
Just dreadful satellite imagery.
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One lesson that is going to be learned, yet again, in the aftermath of today's devastating Boulder County, CO fire is just how far into the suburbs the wildfire-urban interface actually extends given sufficiently extreme drought and wind conditions.
#COwx
#MarshallFire
#CAfire
Apocalyptic views of the
#MarshallFire
in Louisville, Colorado. Mind boggling what has happened today.
#COwx
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Getting real tired of living in a real-world disaster movie.
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Are
#climate
scientists alarmist? Well, we're certainly alarmed. But that's different. The thing about shouting "fire" in a crowded theater is that it makes total sense if the theater is actually on fire. When it comes to
#ClimateChange
, that's essentially where we are right now.
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Significant flooding now as severe hailstorm continues in Boulder.
#cowx
@NWSBoulder
Hail now accumulating to depth of 1-2 inches in downtown Boulder. Largest stones estimated sightly greater than 1 inch diameter but very large volume of smaller stones up to half inch.
#COwx
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Genuinely hard to believe this is happening in late December in Boulder, CO. But take a record warm & dry fall, only 1 inch of snow so far this season, & add an extreme (100mph+) downslope windstorm...and extremely fast moving/dangerous fires are the result.
#COwx
#MarshallFire
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One of the most striking satellite images of California & the West I've ever seen.
#HurricaneKay
is approaching from southeast while numerous large wildfires burn to north, and an enormous pyrocumulonimbus cloud associated with explosive
#MosquitoFire
is prominent.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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Just did some rough math. It appears that we're closing in on 600,000 acres burned by lightning-sparked wildfires in Northern California *in just 7 days.* Nearly all such fires are still spreading rapidly. I'm truly at a loss for words.
#CAwx
#CAfires
#CaliforniaWildfires
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Even as a scientist studying extreme weather & wildfire in a warming climate, I was shocked by how fast
#CalwoodFire
roared down the Colorado Front Range foothills this afternoon. This is footage of one of several large fire vortices I observed while leaving area.
#COwx
@nplareau
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#HurricaneHilary
satellite update: The expected rapid weakening trend has commenced. The storm has lost most of its deep convection in its western semicircle as well as a clearly defined, cloud-free eye.
#Hilary
was a Cat 3 storm at last NHC update. [1/3]
#CAwx
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Palm Springs just recorded its heaviest hourly rainfall on record, and intense tropical downpours could continue for hours in the Coachella Valley. Urban and flash flooding will further escalate in coming hours throughout the SE CA deserts.
#CAwx
Flooding occurring at the Intersection of 30th Ave and Date Palm Dr in Palm Springs, CA.
@NWSSanDiego
#CAwx
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#Hurricane
#Hilary
has undergone an impressive burst of strengthening in recent hours, recently becoming a (category 3 of 5) major hurricane. Further strengthening is possible before the storm begins weakening rapidly on approach to southern California. [1/4]
#CAwx
#CAwater
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👀📷 Check out this awesome picture of the Phantom Falls in the North Table Mountain Ecological Reserve north of Oroville, CA! All the rain over the last week has led to these normally dry creeks becoming waterfalls.
#CAwx
Photo Credit: Mike Manzone
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Folks are asking: "What is the most important individual action I can take to address
#ClimateChange
?" My sincere answer, as scientist & human being: Vote. Vote in each & every election, & make
#climate
a consideration. Solutions possible, but only if we choose to implement them.
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I'm not sure that folks outside of
#Australia
have yet grasped the full magnitude of this widespread and still-escalating catastrophe. Well over 12 million acres (!) have already burned, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
#AustraliaBurning
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I am considerably more concerned regarding more widespread flood risk (& possibly wind damage in some spots as well) with new
#AtmosphericRiver
on Mon-Tue than with past Fri event. This will be more dynamic, as well as very moist. YouTube &/or blog update Sun/Mon.
#CAwx
#CAwater
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One thing I keep reflecting on, especially in context of recent events (CA's winter storm onslaught & dramatic increasingly dramatic hydroclimate whiplash), is how high societal need is for scientist-communicators & others who offer critical context as events unfold in real-time.
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Major flash flooding has developed over western LA and eastern Ventura counties. Over two inches of rain has fallen in just 2 hrs, and torrential downpours continue as a rainband on the western side of
#Hilary
stalls. Water rescues due to trapped vehicles per
@NWSLosAngeles
.
#CAwx
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Scary footage of pyrocumulus "column collapse" earlier this AM. This occurs when there is temporary interruption in sustained fire updraft strength & air falls rapidly back toward surface--similar to thunderstorm downburst. Extremely dangerous conditions.
#CAwx
#CAfire
#CreekFire
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This *gesturing wildly and in every direction* is utterly exhausting.
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Extraordinary images of
#MosquitoFire
this evening. This one is going to be burning & producing large volumes of smoke for many days, so folks in NorCal and western Nevada should prepare for a potentially prolonged period of smoke-related air quality impacts.
#CAwx
#NVwx
#CAfire
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Satellite view of powerful CA storm from space is pretty spectacular. Already reports of blizzard conditions, lightning, & wind damage in far NorCal. Will be a long night for many--exciting for some (weather nerds) & genuinely scary for others (those living near burn areas).
#CAwx
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It is seriously unnerving to see fiery, California-like scenes like this coming out of the U.K. today. There are apparently multiple vegetation fires (I hesitate to call them "wildfires") currently burning structures *within
#London
City limits.*
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Rainy season has started late this year in California...again. While autumn precipitation isn't usually huge fraction of overall annual average, it's hugely important to ecosystems & in bringing "fire season-ending" moisture. This yr, autumn precip was <20-30% of avg.
#CAwx
(2/n)
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No, it's not a hurricane! But the rapidly deepening low pressure center just south of San Francisco has developed a remarkably "eye-like" feature near the center of circulation, and is bringing spiraling bands of heavy rain and gusty winds to the region.
#CAwx
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Satellite view of British Columbia interior confirms that the severe thunderstorms occurring at present are indeed pyro-convective events: wildfire-generated severe storms, complete with abundant lightning and strong winds. Precipitation may be minimal to non-existent...
#BCwx
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Serious situation developing in foothills of Fresno County near
#Oakhurst
.
#CreekFire
has exploded in size & intensity at a time when 1000s of visitors have crowded area. Massive pyrocumulus cloud indicative of extreme fire behavior, &
#pyrotornado
may have occurred.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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Confirmed human toll from wildland-urban interface
#MauiFires
is terrible (already second deadliest wildfire in modern American history), but grim reports from residents on the ground suggest actual toll is even greater & that there is still minimal outside assistance.
#MauiFire
Wanted to give an update as I have several first responder friends down in Lahaina tonight. There’s body’s all over town and in the water that have not been accounted for and reported yet. So many people never made it out. There are possibly hundreds dead and even more missing.
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#Hilary
has officially made landfall in northern Baja CA as a tropical storm, per
@NHC_Pacific
, but center of circulation may move back offshore and potentially make a second landfall between San Diego and Los Angeles (still at TS strength). Flood impacts now ramping up.
#CAwx
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A reminder: virtually all we know about Earth’s atmosphere & oceans comes from sustained decades of government-funded scientific research.
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Again, this bears repeating since a lot of folks are apparently still unaware: the
#CaldorFire
is turning into a potentially very dangerous & imminent threat for folks living in the woods east and northeast of Pollock Pines near and along Hwy 50 corridor.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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As a weather & climate scientist as well as a professional science communicator, I offer this:
It's easy to get caught up in the hype of viral social media posts in the weather & climate space. But please consider the source, and be skeptical of extreme claims.
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A visual reminder that tsunamis are *not* like a single big ocean wave: they are a series of successive surges of water that may be only a few feet in height yet still contain a massive amount of energy and can affect bays and inlets otherwise protected from ocean waves.
#tsunami
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The U.K. has broken essentially every temperature record there is to break by considerable margins over the past 24 hours. An astonishing and extremely dangerous heatwave by any measure--and eerily similar to the incredible Pacific Northwest event back in June 2021.
#ClimateChange
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Against the odds, a very early and pretty substantial/probably "fire season slowing" precipitation event appears likely for much of NorCal late this weekend. If we can get through the Sat-Sun SW wind event, things will likely be looking much better on
#MosquitoFire
by Mon.
#CAwx
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Remarkable footage of (presumably) topographically induced mountain rotor interacting with
#PipelineFire
near Flagstaff, AZ. These are usually invisible (the dreaded "clear air turbulence" encountered by aircraft), but here smoke acts as a tracer. Wow.
#AZwx
@NickyNaus
@nplareau
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Well, there it is:
@NHC_Pacific
has officially issued a Tropical Storm Watch for SoCal. This is the first such watch ever issued for West Coast of United States.
Wind will be a concern, but severe flood risk from very heavy rain will be the much greater threat.
#CAwx
#Hilary
8am PDT Fri Aug 18 Key Messages for Hurricane
#Hilary
: There is the potential for rare and dangerous flooding impacts from heavy rainfall across portions of the Southwestern U.S. this weekend.
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@GinaGoesOutside
Definitely a fallstreak hole "hole punch" cloud! And a pretty spectacular example at that. (1/2)
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@MollyJongFast
Like fundamentally misrepresenting climate scientists' public statements on wildfires and climate change? As I've stated on the record numerous times, climate change is clearly making Western wildfire conditions more severe--and is a key driver of the present crisis.
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I would say it's one disaster after another, but there's actually a helluva lot happening all at once right now.
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Flood risk from
#Hilary
in SE California deserts is genuinely alarming. Widespread & possibly destructive flash flooding is possible. This has high potential to be a historic flood event in this region. See attached screenshot of
@NWSPhoenix
forecast discussion from this AM.
#CAwx
Well, there it is:
@NHC_Pacific
has officially issued a Tropical Storm Watch for SoCal. This is the first such watch ever issued for West Coast of United States.
Wind will be a concern, but severe flood risk from very heavy rain will be the much greater threat.
#CAwx
#Hilary
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With additional heavy rain overnight, it appears the Highway 1 debris flow/washout near Big Sur went from a partial washout to, ah, a rather complete one.
#CAwx
@NWSBayArea
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Looks similar to what can happen in run-up to
#tusnami
, but in this case likely combination of very low tide and offshore wind from
#Irma
.
I am in disbelief right now... This is Long Island, Bahamas and the ocean water is missing!!! That's as far as they see
#HurricaneIrma
wtf
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Sobering satellite imagery at sunset this evening depicting (multiple) massive pyrocumulus plumes and widespread smoke coverage across northern California.
#CarrFire
exploding again, with new fires in Mendocino County (
#RanchFire
,
#RiverFire
) and elsewhere.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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Despite a lot of folks online claiming otherwise, there are multiple reports starting to emerge of more serious flash flooding now and highly energetic debris flows in some areas. Torrential rainfall continues in some places and will linger for hours in certain spots.
#CAwx
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"The death rate is only 2%" is the
#COVID19
equivalent of "It's only 2 degrees of global mean warming" due to
#ClimateChange
. Both numbers *sound* small but are actually horrifying and societally-transformative in context.
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CA weather update: mountain snow and cold (convective) lowland showers today will indeed herald the approach more more traditionally wet/cool conditions over the next 10-14 days. (Finally!) This looks like a solidly beneficial pattern, for multiple reasons... (1/3)
#CAwx
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Two things can simultaneously be true:
1.
#Wildfires
are a natural & often beneficial process in most terrestrial ecosystems.
2. A constellation of factors, including historic fire suppression policies &
#ClimateChange
, have led to an escalating wildfire crisis in many regions.
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It's utterly exhausting to repeatedly watch foreseeable & largely surmountable societal challenges turn into crises because they're widely perceived to be affecting "other people" & would be "too expensive" to address.Striking parallels between
#COVID19
&
#ClimateChange
response.
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Honored to be one of
@VICE
's 2020 Humans of the Year! Many thanks to
@mgregory_9
for the write-up and Michelle Urra for the cool cover art.
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Update: remarkable "smoke cyclone"/ "smokestorm" has now moved south into central U.S., crossing the Canadian border near the MT/SD border. This low pressure system has entrained a massive amount of smoke from numerous large boreal forest fires in central Canada.
#MTwx
#SDwx
#COwx
Remarkable satellite imagery from this evening starkly depicts worsening boreal forest
#fire
situation in
#Canada
: numerous large
#pyrocumulus
(including some pyrocumulonimbi injecting smoke high into atmosphere) and a huge cyclonic "
#smokestorm
" swirl over central Alberta.
#ABwx
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Yet more amazing satellite imagery of inbound storm. Multiple sub-vortices are visible rotating around common center inside broader low pressure system (aka "Fujiwhara effect"). A powerful cold front will bring high winds & heavy rain to California in coming hours.
#CAwx
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The number of people claiming that 1) California is not in a drought, 2) that the drought in CA is not severe, 3) that drought is unrelated to temperature, 4) that temperatures are not rising, or (my favorite) 5) that I do not understand what a percentile is is...striking.
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It is worth noting that this exact situation--an extremely strong atmospheric river bringing brief period of record rainfall in midst of severe and temperature-amplified drought--is what we expect to see in California with
#ClimateChange
.
#CAwx
#CAwater
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Water stored in CA's snowpack is essentially gone--statewide value for May 4th is only *15%* of avg. Strikingly, this water does not appear to be contributing much to streamflow--it's either soaking into
#CAdrought
-parched soils or sublimating directly into dry atmosphere.
#CAwx
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#HurricaneHilary
is still looking extremely impressive on infrared satellite imagery. (If anything, the presentation appears to have improved again after some degradation earlier.)
#Hilary
is still a powerful Category 4 storm but will begin to weaken rapidly on Sat.
#CAwx
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Spectacular (and dangerous) conversation of (gravitational) potential energy to kinetic energy in the form of a mountain glacier collapsing in Kyrgyzstan. We're seeing events like this more often near high altitude glaciers in recent years as climate warms. Wow (and yikes).
Kirghizistan : Un glacier s'est détaché à proximité des gorges de Juuku.
Des touristes ont commencé à filmer ce qui se passait avant d'être atteints par l'avalanche.
Selon les médias, 2 personnes auraient été hospitalisées pour des blessures & des ecchymoses.
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Along the West Coast of United States, the
#tsunami
surges from
#HungaTonga
eruption in the South Pacific will probably be similar to sudden onset of high King Tides. Disruptive, but not destructive in most cases. Still a good idea to stay away from immediate shoreline!
#CAwx
WATCH: Tsunami from Tonga volcano eruption starting to cause minor flooding in Santa Cruz, California
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If I hear about "space lasers" as the cause of California's wildfires one more time...I think I'm gonna lose it.
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...that's just a testament to how poorly framed the question of "Did climate change cause X extreme event?" really is. It misses the most essential point: all disasters are compound events, w/many contributing factors. But sometimes, climate can play starring role.
#CAfire
(12/n)
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The new imagery of this storm this morning is...just as impressive. Wow.
Rain and wind will ramp up later this PM into the evening and peaking overnight in NorCal, and somewhat later in SoCal. If anything, expected winds have increased slightly since yesterday.
#CAwx
Just kind of obsessing over the amazing and perfectly-framed satellite imagery today of the inbound California storm. This is a *textbook* mid-latitude cyclone, with well-defined warm and cold fronts, and it's even developing an eye-like feature near its center.
#CAwx
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Remarkable satellite imagery today depicting a rapidly strengthening storm at an unusually southerly position SW of California. Note the prominent "baroclinic leaf" cloud to the NE of the circulation center & deep subtropical moisture tap extending well south of Hawaii!
#CAwx
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Growing ensemble confidence in potentially very active period for California weather in early Feb. Things will dry out for next 7-10 days but then it looks like it's off to the races w/a major Pacific jet extension that will be oriented more directly toward CA vs one in Dec.
#CAwx
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Extremely dangerous
#CalwoodFire
just north of Boulder, CO directly affecting WUI right now. I have observed multiple large fire vortices and a large, rotating pyrocumulus column. Wow.
#COwx
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One thing I want to make crystal clear: despite what misleading news headlines will inevitably read this week, a hurricane *will not* hit California this week. Full stop. Its remnants may cause some unusual and potentially significant weather, but that is *very different.*
#CAwx
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For perspective, my current view is that just about any place in the "yellow or higher" areas on this topographic contour map of California (i.e., ~900-1000ft) has a decent shot at accumulating snowfall overnight Thu into Fri. Definitely includes some unusual places...
#CAwx
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Very active wildfires visible via satellite throughout NorCal this evening.
#DixieFire
&
#CaldorFire
particularly stand out. Tomorrow may be a serious fire spread day due to W/SW wind event, esp. on
#CaldorFire
which will start to approach Meyers/South Lake Tahoe.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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Objective indicators of vegetation dryness and potential fire intensity were at record-high levels for the date this week in vicinity of
#CampFire
--and would have been very high even for peak summer levels--at a time of year when the rainy season is usually ramping up. (3/n)
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Just 1-3 days in advance, models are spitting out eye-popping daily maxima in the Sacramento Valley in excess of 115F. These would be the singularly hottest temperatures ever recorded in this part of California. Believable? At this point, I don't know--but possibly. Yikes. (4/n)
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In this part of California, summer 2018 was warmer than any prior to 2014 (4 of the 5 warmest on record have occurred in the past 5 years). Cumulative effect of warmth over many months also helped to dry out vegetation more than would otherwise have been the case.
#CAwx
(5/n)
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This thread comes partly as result of personal frustration & sadness surrounding what is happening in California. Last few years have been very tough for millions of people who have been directly affected by astonishing multi-year fire siege.
#CAfire
(15/n)
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Scientific institutions must create--and sustain--new kinds of roles so that researchers can provide the deep public engagement necessary to respond effectively to the escalating impacts of
#climate
change. The status quo isn't working. [Thread: 1/n]
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Interestingly, there appears to be lightning occurring in both warm sector of this storm as well as along the cold front. That is pretty unusual in these parts, and is indicative of both a pretty unstable atmosphere overall as well as the rapid rate of strengthening.
#CAwx
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@GinaGoesOutside
These form when there is a localized introduction of ice crystal nucleation particles that causes supercooled water droplets to instantly crystalize, but the surrounding water droplets evaporate and leave the ring. Often (but not always) triggered by aircraft. (2/2)
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Frost flowers on a pond near Boulder, CO. Phenomena is relatively rare on freshwater bodies, though are somewhat more common atop saline sea ice in the Arctic. (Photos by Daniel Swain, Nov. 20, 2022)
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Massive pyrocumulus cloud developing just northeast of Oroville on Sierra Nevada western slope. I believe this is
#ClaremontFire
, and is now spreading extremely rapidly southwestward toward northeastern Sacramento Valley foothills. Several communities in the path.
#CAwx
#CAfire
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I'm not aware any wildfire-related emergency evacuation airlift anywhere approaching this scale in the United States. Incredible...and very lucky this was an option. Meteorological conditions during this airlift must have been extremely dicey.
#CreekFire
#CAwx
#CAfire
Simply extraordinary, lifesaving work by the
@CalGuard
airlifting more than 200 people to safety overnight from the imminent danger of the
#CreekFire
The National Guard stands Always Ready, Always There to support our communities and nation in times of need.
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