🇺🇸 In line with Truflation's prediction and market expectations, the BLS-reported CPI was at 3.0% ✦ Headline: 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% prior) ✦ Core: 3.0% YoY (unchanged) Truflation nailed the 3.0% forecast, accurately anticipating today’s official CPI print. This result also

🇺🇸 No US GDP Data Coming Out Today Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was scheduled to release the Advance Estimate for Q3 2025 GDP. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, the release has been suspended indefinitely. This deepens the federal data drought

As part of @truflation, we were the first project to join @Chainlink's Build program. While Truflation became an authority in macroeconomic data signals with its flagship US inflation index, Truf Network became the blockchain infrastructure behind it, offering a cryptographic

“The one word that really describes the relationship with Chainlink … accelerate.” Stefan Rust, Founder of @truflation and @TRUFNETWORK, shares why they joined the Chainlink Build program and discusses the importance of delivering transparent, real-time, daily consumer price

📹 Truflation is LIVE now! 🔴 Covering the FOMC statement & Powell’s speech, no U.S. GDP data, Argentina elections, layoffs across major firms, NVIDIA’s milestone, and more! https://t.co/ceJ6Cz5MXX

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🇺🇸 No US GDP Data Coming Out Today Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was scheduled to release the Advance Estimate for Q3 2025 GDP. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, the release has been suspended indefinitely. This deepens the federal data drought

🏦 Powell Just Drew the Line on QT He wrapped up his FOMC presser. Here are the highlights from his speech and Q&A with reporters, adding depth to the Fed’s 25 bps cut, the end of QT, and how officials are balancing inflation vs jobs ahead of December. 🧵 Key takeaways ⤵️

🏦 The Fed Continues Cutting Rates and QT Ends! The FOMC has announced a 25 bps rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75 %–4.00 %, in line with the ≈ 98 % probability priced in before the meeting. Key highlights from the statement: ✦ Economic activity

12/ Bottom line: The Fed continues cutting rates and will end QT on Dec 1. Future moves depend on data clarity, labor-market trends, and inflation stickiness. Truflation will keep delivering the real-time signal needed during these data-drought times. https://t.co/xclS0aqa2y

11/ AI & investment. Powell doesn’t see AI-related data-center investment as particularly rate-sensitive. It’s driven by long-term productivity bets, not by 25 bps changes in funding costs.

10/ Bifurcated economy & banks. Powell noted stress at the lower-income level and subprime credit losses, but said the financial system overall remains sound and well-capitalized.

9/ The data drought problem. With the gov. shutdown, Powell said the Fed is relying on private-sector and survey data. “If you’re driving in the fog, you slow down.” 🌐 Truflation has been operating flawlessly throughout the data blackout, providing real-time inflation

8/ Labor market view. Job gains have slowed and unemployment has inched higher, but Powell said there’s no acceleration in weakness. Claims and job-opening data still show gradual cooling, not a sharp downturn.

7/ Policy stance & neutral rate. After 150 bps cuts this year, policy is now “modestly restrictive.” Powell noted most neutral-rate estimates sit between 3 %–4 %, meaning policy is near the edge of neutral as risks become two-sided.

6/ Next phase of balance-sheet policy: ✦ Hold the Fed’s balance sheet steady for a time. ✦ Let agency MBS run off and reinvest into Treasury bills. ✦ Gradually move toward a shorter-duration, Treasury-heavy portfolio over time.

5/ QT ends Dec 1. Why now? Funding-market pressures, higher repo and Fed funds rates, signal reserves are near the “ample” zone. So the Fed will end balance-sheet runoff Dec 1, freezing QT to maintain market stability.

4/ Tariffs & inflation. Rising tariffs are lifting goods prices and overall inflation. Powell called it likely a one-time level shift, not a lasting shock, but warned the Fed will monitor that risk. Truflation reported this rise in goods long before it surfaced in official

3/ December isn’t guaranteed. Powell emphasized that a further cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” The Committee is divided on how to proceed next, not on today’s decision, but on the path forward.

2/ Why another cut? Powell said the balance of risks has shifted: downside risks to jobs have increased while inflation remains above 2%. Today’s move pushes policy toward neutral, aiming to stabilize both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.

🏦 Powell Just Drew the Line on QT He wrapped up his FOMC presser. Here are the highlights from his speech and Q&A with reporters, adding depth to the Fed’s 25 bps cut, the end of QT, and how officials are balancing inflation vs jobs ahead of December. 🧵 Key takeaways ⤵️