What if you could think more clearly, solve problems more effectively, and see the hidden structures behind everything?.Welcome to Patterns of Thought—a journey into the fundamental concepts that shape our understanding of the world. 🧵👇.#MentalModels #FirstPrinciples

@statto A new perspective on aging and rejuventation - could be of interest to you!.

RT @TimePieChina: Can aging cells find their way back to youth?🤔. Scientists of @altos_labs propose a new phenomenological model, Cell Anne….

RT @Dr_Singularity: Anti Aging News. Escaping ageing through Cell Annealing. Researchers have introduced a new model called "Cell Annealing….

What if the blueprint for youth is never truly lost, just inaccessible?.Today, we're excited to announce the publication of our "Cell Annealing" model in which cells can be rebooted to restore their optimal, youthful state and escape ageing.

RT @peterwildeford:

RT @Siharyvani: The "why won't this freaking.drawer open" starter pack

Let us appreciate the power of trade to create value. We all win when we exchange what we have for what we need, without barriers. Magic, indeed. Learn more: For more First Principles Thinking:

The magic of trade can have a dark side. Monopolies and monopsonies allow powerful actors to exploit weaker ones, manipulating prices and creating dependencies. When trade becomes unbalanced, those at the bottom face difficulty escaping exploitation.

How do we stop people from exploiting others? Meet the magic of competition. In a market full of alternative buyers and sellers, fair prices emerge and we can keep in check exploitative pricing.

Advanced magic: specialisation. When Alice and Bob have different opportunity costs for rice and fish they can specialise in producing the good for which they have comparative advantage - and obtain the other good(s) by trading. If you have a job, you probably do that every day!

Imagine Alice and Bob—one holds rice, the other holds fish. Alice prefers fish; Bob prefers rice. By trading, both improve their situations without needing to produce anything new. The magic of voluntary exchange makes the world a better place.

The magic of trade does not involve wizardry but operates as a powerful economic principle. The combination of diverse preferences, varying opportunity costs, and competition creates and distributes value from thin air.

Free trade feels a bit like magic because it can create something out of nothing. We access all sorts of goods and services, from haircuts to iPhones, even though most of us work in specialised jobs. Trump’s tariffs threaten to destroy that magic and undermine the invisible hand

RT @VividVoid_: gm

This substack post dives into:.- When absence counts as evidence.- Why logic sometimes fails.- How probability saves the day. Read it here and update your priors:. 👉

Bayes’ Theorem = math’s way of saying:. “If you keep seeing black ravens and no weird ones, maybe all ravens really do look black.”.Same with aliens: if we should have seen signs by now, the silence starts to matter. #BayesTheorem

Logic says:. “All ravens look black” → “This raven looks black.”. But seeing a black raven tells us nothing about all ravens. Probability, though? It lets us adjust our belief. One raven at a time.

Take the #FermiParadox. Vast universe. Billions of stars. Plenty of time. Still no alien signals. Should we lower our expectations?. Probability says. maybe yes.

I sometimes drop the line:.“Absence of evidence does not count as evidence of absence.”. Especially when someone says “It doesn’t exist — I looked.”.Feels clever. But guess what? Sometimes that absence actually does tell us something.

🚨 New #substack post: “Absence of evidence does not count as evidence of absence”. or does it?. Aliens, ravens, Sherlock Holmes, and Bayesian math collide. Come for the logic, stay for the probability. 👇🧵