Oguz O. | ๐ Capitalist ๐ธ
@thexcapitalist
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Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter read in +180 countries ๐๐ผ
Joined June 2023
Premium subscription to my newsletter gets you:. - Over 50 equity research reports per year.- Membership to our Discord community.- Access to our outperforming portfolio.- Live support.- Q&A. Join with the link below:.
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This man knows the market. He predicted:.1) Dot-com Bubble (2000) .2) Great Recession (2008) .3) The COVID Bubble (2021). Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg and said "tariffs are changing everything.". Here is his latest warning: ๐งต
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This man sees the future. He predicted:.1) Dot-com Bubble (2000).2) Great Recession (2008).3) The COVID Bubble (2021). Here is Howard Marks' latest warning: ๐งต
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I canโt believe Iโm hearing thisโฆ. Trump says illegal immigrants who work on farms and hotels can stay because they are cheap labor. Same guy doesnโt want cheap manufacturing from China. Make it make senseโฆ
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Number of H100 chips bought in 2024:. - $MSFT: 450,000.- $META: 350,000.- $AMZN: 196,000.- $GOOG: 169,000. If you believe they couldnโt find the way to make better AI without more chips but a few Chinese engineers did it as a side project, you are too naive. Deepseek was.
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This is the greatest investor ever. Stanley Druckenmiller has never had a down year. His fund returned 30% annually for 30 years. Here is his updated philosophy:
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This man knows the market. He predicted: .1) Dot-com Bubble (2000) .2) Great Recession (2008) .3) The COVID Bubble (2021). Here is Howard Marks' latest warning: ๐งต
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I canโt believe this guy holds a PHD in Economics from Harvard. He says Vietnamโs reducing tariff to 0 doesnโt solve the US trade deficit with Vietnam. Well, because US is so rich it can afford anything from Vietnam but Vietnam canโt afford anything from the US. Please stopโฆ
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Bill Ackman is one of the best investors of our generation. In the last five years, his fund returned 183% against 102% return of S&P 500. Yesterday, I re-watched his 3 hours long interview with Lex Fridman. Here are the 7 things you can't miss: ๐งต.(No. 5 is critical)
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$AMZN is now trading at 15 times operating cash flow, lowest in history. Meanwhile free cash flow is expected to grow 33% annually for the next 5 years. Can you tell me one reason why this shouldn't work incredibly well from here?
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Peter Lynch once said:. "If you spend 14 minutes a year thinking about economics, you have just wasted 12 minutes.". Here are his 10 investing principles to navigate uncertainty: ๐งต
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1/ This is the biggest change of sea since World War II. After the war a regime of economic integration was deliberately picked to make countries interdependent to prevent another war. This came to known as globalization. Tariffs signs a step back from this regime.
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Ronald Reagan: "Tariffs increase inflation, reduce innovation and erode competitive edge of a country."
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$AMZN is now basically flat since 2021. Meanwhile:. - Revenue is up 50%. - Net income is up 100%. - Operating margin doubled. Forward P/E shrunk from 90 to 30 and itโs now trading at 17 times operating cash flow, lowest ever. Tell me how itโs not an opportunity?
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3/ Global trade unleashed potential for every country. Because of the global trade, US could outsource low value manufacturing from poorer countries and focused on high value services. If people in the US aren't assembling iPhones for $1/hour, this is because of free trade.
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Charlie Munger once said:. "When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage.". Here are 7 investing principles to navigate tough times: ๐งต
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2/ Global trade was the biggest driver of prosperity in the last 80 years. Marks likens it to a wave that lifted all boats. United States also massively benefited from this. How?. It turned from an manufacturing economy to a service economy.
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4/ Inflation will skyrocket. Global trade and cheap manufacturing lead to 40% reduction in prices of durable goods despite the fact that the USD lost 75% of its value since the World War II. This won't happen anymore. Costs will increase and goods will become more expensive.
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This is Bill Ackman. He is one of the greatest investors alive. He went on the Lex Fridman Podcast and shared his investing strategy. Here are 7 key takeaways: ๐งต
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7/ US is still the best place to invest. It's just less of a best than it used to be. The worst possible consequence of this situation is the USD losing its reserve currency status. This will make US Government debt no more on paper, but a reality to be faced.
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Charlie Munger once said: . โThe big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.โ. Here are 7 investing lessons I learnt from him: ๐งต
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$PLTR generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow last year, market cap is $300 billion. $UNH generated $25 billion free cash flow in the same period, market cap is $285 billion. Say all you want, this doesnโt make sense.
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Itโs insane that this guy has a PHD in Economics from Harvardโฆ. The country is moving toward a recession and he says โthis is the best recession I have ever seen. โ. Stop itโฆ
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5/ It's a time of dislocation. The uncertainty is as high as it ever has been, making it harder to measure whether the market decline is overdone. There is no data to look because we are going through this for the first time. This is the big challenge we are facing right now.
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In 2020, Bill Ackman pulled off one of the greatest trades in history. He bet against the credit market. The result? He turned $27 million into $2.7 billion in just 30 days. Here is how he did it: ๐งต
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Warren Buffett: "Stocks going down is actually good for us. When stocks are down, we are going to be buying on balance."
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$GRAB is the next big ecosystem business. It's dominating deliveries and mobility in Southeast Asia and it has a fast growing fintech division. Here is my investment thesis: ๐งต
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$AMZN is a buy below $220. $GOOG is a buy below $180. $ASML is a buy below $700. $META is a buy below $600. This is your foundational deck. $TMDX is a buy below $100. $ROOT is a but below $100. $HIMS is a buy below $35. $SOFI is a buy below $20. This is your growth deck.
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Peter Lynch achieved 29.5% annual return for 13 years. I spent 100+ hours studying his strategy. I will explain his strategy 10 simple steps: ๐งต
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1/ $PLTR is one of the most important companies in the world. I believe it will be $1 trillion company one day. Yet, most people don't know what it actually does. Here is everything you need to know about $PLTR, business, investment thesis, financials, everything. (Thread ๐งต)
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Stanley Druckenmiller once said: โItโs liquidity that moves the markets.โ. How true?
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Warren Buffett is the best investor of all time. Berkshire Hathaway returned 5,502,284% since 1964 while S&P 500 returned just 39,054%. He has been giving free investing masterclass in Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings since 1970. Here's his 10 best nuggets: ๐งต
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Something rare is happening in the economy:. 1) Fed is cutting. 2) Inflation is cooling. 3) Market rates are surging. What does this mean for the US economy?. Let me explain: ๐งต
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6/ It's not a time to be fearful. Prices for the shares of the highest quality companies in the world have gone for a sale. Whether it's adequate reduction to buy a big chunk is a different question but if you are in this for a long term, you should at least take a hard look.
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Charlie Munger once said:. "It takes character to sit there with all that cash and do nothing. I didnโt get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.". Here are 5 investing principles I learnt from him: ๐งต
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Undervalued stocks I would BUY now:.- AMD, $AMD.- NuBank, $NU.- UnitedHealth, $UNH.- Novo Nordisk, $NVO.- MercadoLibre, $MELI. Overvalued stocks I would AVOID now:.- Apple, $AAPL.- Palantir, $PLTR.- RocketLab, $RKLB.- MicroStrategy, $MSTR.
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1/ $AMD is a 10x opportunity everybody ignores. Lisa Su believes that inference will be a bigger market than training. Training is the cost center of AI workload while inference is where you make money. $AMD has an advantage here. Let me explain why: ๐งต
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Mohnish Pabrai turned $1 million into $600 million in 10 years. Even Charlie Munger gave him money to manage. His strategy is simple โฏ buy companies that can build new businesses. He calls this "spawner strategy.". Here's his updated philosophy: ๐งต
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I used to think I was rational. Then, I read Daniel Kahnemanโs revolutionary book on behavioral economics. It changed how I see the world. Here are the 10 most harmful cognitive biases and how you can avoid them to succeed in investing: ๐งต
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I used to think I was rational. Then, I read Daniel Kahnemanโs revolutionary book on behavioral economics. It changed how I see the world. Here are the 10 most harmful cognitive biases and how you can avoid them to succeed in investing: ๐งต
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$PLTR will be a $1 trillion company in the next 15 years.
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$NVO was once a market darling, now it gets a garbage treatment. Yet, revenue is exploding, margins are expanding and it has blockbuster drugs in the pipeline. Here is why $NVO is a 2x opportunity now: ๐งต
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$OSCR is disrupting the health insurance market. Members tripled in the last two years, revenue is exploding and it's launching new affordable products. Here is why $OSCR is a 10x opportunity from here: ๐งต
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Do you want to know what $PLTR does?. Here is an ELI5 explanation: (Thread๐งต)
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$BABA will generate $191 billion revenue in 2028 even if you assume just 10% annual revenue growth. This is more than its current market cap. You are basically paying nothing for its 2029 revenue. P/B is getting close to 1. Itโs the cheapest big-tech stock.
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Bill Ackman is one of the best investors alive. His fund crushed S&P 500 by more than 80% in the last 5 years. Yesterday, I re-watched his 3-hour interview with Lex Fridman. Here are the 7 things you can't miss: ๐งต
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$GOOG holds $95 billion in cash and t-bills. Yet, it's priced like it's going bankrupt at 14 times operating cash flow. It's now cheaper than it was in Covid crash. What's the downside of buying $GOOG here, seriously?
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Stanley Druckenmiller is the greatest investor ever. His fund returned 30% annually for 30 years without a down year. Yesterday, I re-watched his interview with Nicolai Tangen. Here are the 7 things you can't miss: ๐งต.(No. 5 is critical)
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Peter Lynch: โIf you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you just wasted 12 minutes. Nobody can predict the economy.โ
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$ASML is the strongest monopoly the market just ignores. Its order book hit all time highs last quarter yet the stock got hammered down. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต
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$AMZN is my highest conviction stock for 2025. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต.
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1/ $PLTR is one of the most important businesses in the world. Yet, most people don't know what it actually does. Here is everything you need to know about $PLTR, business, investment thesis, financials, everything. (Thread ๐งต)
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1/ $AMD is at the edge of a bullish breakout. Last time it bounced back from $90 levels, it went straight to all time highs with no catalyst. This is repeating now and it's exploding data center revenue is a great catalyst. Here is my $AMD investment thesis: ๐งต
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Peter Lynch achieved 29.5% annual return for 13 years. I was obsessed with his stragey and I spent 100+ hours reading all his books to solve it. Here, I will explain to you his framework in 10 simple steps: ๐งต
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Here's 10 best stocks for the next decade: ๐งต. 1. $HIMS. - Disrupting healthcare. - 76% revenue CAGR since 2019. - Has +$120 billion untapped market potential. Strongest balance sheet among the young growth companies with $11 million debt against $400 million equity. Must own.
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Charlie Munger once said:. "When everybody goes insane, staying sane is your competitive advantage.". Here are 10 investing lessons I learnt from him:๐งต
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$HIMS is still a 10x opportunity from here. Demand is exploding, margins are improving and it's entering new markets. Here is why $HIMS is still a great opportunity: ๐งต
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Can somebody explain to Trump that there is no way US having a surplus with Madagascar. US imports cheap spices from Madagascar while they can afford to buy nothing from the US. This isnโt bad, this shows that your people have vastly more purchasing power than Madagascar.
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8/ What's the right thing to do?. US companies are still the bests in the world. Their shares have fallen significantly from peaks and investors thinking long-term should start taking advantage of this. This should be done without betting the house and keeping in mind that.
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$OSCR is a 5x opportunity everybody ignores. Revenues are exploding, it has just become profitable, and it's trading at just 6 times 2027 earnings โฏ and Michael Burry is buying too. Here is why it's an asymmetric opportunity now: ๐งต
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$GOOG is one of my top picks for 2025. It's the cheapest AI stock that everybody overlooks. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต
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5 foundational stocks to buy in 2025:.- $AMZN: Buy under $230.- $GOOG: Buy under $210.-$ASML: Buy under $750.- $UNH: Buy under $550.- $BABA: Buy under $90. 5 growth stocks to buy in 2025:.- $NU: Buy under $13.- $SOFI: Buy under $18.- $HIMS: Buy under $30.- $TMDX: Buy under $90.-.
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I read $NVDA partnering with $GM to develop autonomous vehicles most bullish for $UBER. People thought $TSLA robo-taxi would be proprietary. Now, most OEMs will have that through $NVDA. Where tech is commoditized, distribution wins. $UBER controls the distribution.
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Tesla permabulls sharing this robotaxi stack comparison to talk down Waymo. Well, one is doing +250,000 paid drives a week the other is doing 0. Guess which is which?
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I am 100% serious with this:. In this market, your only goal should be adding as much $AMZN as possible. The all economy is about to change and Amazon will be the biggest beneficiary. Robots will replace 99% of the Amazonโs warehouse workforce. AI will replace +90% of the.
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Amazon will generate $250 billion cloud revenue in 2032. At 40% profit margin and 20 PE, this will be a $2.5 trillion business. At this price, you are pasically paying nothing for its e-commerce and advertising business. $AMZN is the cheapest mega-cap now.
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Let's make a fast start to 2025. Here are my top 10 stock picks for the year and the investment cases: ๐งต. 1. $AMZN.- 2024 Revenue Growth: 15%.- Profit Margin: 8%.- Forward P/E: 35. Cloud growth is reaccelerating as AI agents are taking over the world. E-commerce margins will
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1/ $HIMS is going to create millionaires. Revenues are exploding, margins are expanding and it's about to go international. Here is why $HIMS is a great opportunity now: ๐งต
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$AMZN is my highest conviction for the next decade. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต.
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1/ $BABA is the sleeping giant. Take out the cash and it trades at 4 times free cash flow. At $77, it is an asymmetric opportunity. Here are 5 simple reasons why $BABA will double soon: (Thread ๐งต)
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Howard Lutnick a week ago: โTariffs are going to bring back smartphone manufacturing at home.โ. Today: Smartphones are exempt from tariffs. What changed? Or would it never work anyways?
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Stanley Druckenmiller is the greatest investor ever. He has never had a down year. His fund returned 30% annually for 30 years. Here are 7 investing lessons I learnt from him: ๐งต
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Here are 10 best stocks to own next decade: ๐งต. 1. $AMZN. - Leder in e-commerce. - Largest cloud provider. - Third largest digital advertiser. It has 31% market share in cloud which is expected to become a $2.3 trillion market by 2032. Digital advertising and e-commerce are also
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$HOOD is my top pick for the next 10 years. Trading revenues are exploding, assets under management are booming and it's starting to expand internationally. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต.
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$HIMS is still a 10x opportunity from here. It's printing cash, expanding product line and launching into the home care market. Here is my full investment thesis: ๐งต
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Stocks I would BUY now:.- $TSM.- $AMD.- $AMZN. Stocks I would AVOID now:.- $PLTR.- $TSLA.- $MSTR.
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1/ $BABA was a sleeping giant, it's coming back now. It trades at 10 times forward earnings. At $97, it is still an asymmetric opportunity. Here is why $BABA will triple soon: (Thread๐งต)
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5 stocks that will dominate the next two decades: (Thread ๐งต). 1. $PLTR. It is referred as the โMessi of AIโ. This is well deserved as customers are flocking to its AIP. It allows companies to integrate their data and create customized LLMs for their operations. This
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10 stocks I would buy if I were to start investing today: (Thread๐งต). 1. $HIMS. Leader in telemedicine with 49% market share. It just started to offer GLP-1 treatment that will skyrocket the revenue in this quarter. It also has +$120 billion untapped market opportunity.
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Costco isn't a retailer. It's a $400 billion real estate empire disguised as a membership warehouse club. Here is how they built the smartest business model in retail-and why it's impossible to disrupt: ๐งต
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$AMZN trades at the same level as 2021 despite the exploding free cash flow. It is the cheapest mega-cap stock considering the immense future potential. Here are 3 simple reasons why it's the top mega-cap pick right now: ๐งต
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3 Growth stocks to BUY now:. - $HIMS.- $SOFI.- $MELI. 3 Growth stocks to AVOID now:. - $PLTR.- $RKLB.- $HOOD.
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$AMZN will be the first $10 trillion company. They control over 50% of the retail e-commerce and 31% of cloud computing. Yet, itโs still undervalued. Here is why $AMZN can easily do 5x in the next decade: ๐งต
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$CELH has:. - No debt.- $880 million cash.- 21% operating margin.- Pepsi as a distribution partner.- Explosive growth (80% 5-year CAGR). Why the hell arenโt you buying it?
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Market is still near all time highs despite the pull back last week. Here are 10 stocks I'll be buying if we get a deeper correction: ๐งต. 1. $AMZN. Forward P/E: 34.Gross Margin: 48%.5 Year Revenue CAGR: 14%. It's the leader in the US retail e-commerce and cloud computing and
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The most successful investors alive are:. โข Joel Greenblatt.โข Warren Buffett.โข Howard Marks.โข Michael Burry.โข Seth Klarman.โข George Soros.โข David Tepper.โข Bill Ackman.โข Peter Lynch.โข Chuck Akre. 1 investing lesson from each: ๐งต.
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My 5 investment themes for the next decade:. AI Infrastructure: $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM, $ASML. Cloud: $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $BABA. Fintech: $SOFI, $NU, $HOOD, $ADYEN. E-commerce: $MELI, $SE, $PDD. Healthcare: $UNH, $HIMS, $NVO, $ABCL. All category winners, they will outperform.
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$PLTR was a โhopeless projectโ, most people said. They couldnโt find any seed investors so Peter Thiel himself bankrolled the engineers to create the prototype. Here is how Palantir grew from a hopeless project to a $90 billion company: (Thread๐งต)
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My 10 best ideas for 2025:. 1. $AMZN | I will keep adding on it regularly. AWS growth is reaccelerating and e-commerce margins are expanding. Must own. 2. $GOOG | Fastest growing cloud business and generates 70% of compute power from its own chips. 3. $NU | Iโll keep buying at.
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Hyperscaler will spend $322 billion in capex this year:. - $AMZN: $97 billion.- $MSFT: $85 billion.- $GOOG: $75 billion.- $META: $65 billion. Over 90% of this money will go to AI infrastructure. Looks like $NVDA is still cheap.
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Cathie Woodโs $TSLA price target is supported by, wait for it, nothing. This is why I avoid $TSLA. Letโs calculate what it takes for $TSLA to reach $2,600 shall we?. This target implies $7.4 trillion market cap. $TSLA operating businesses are now worth near $1 trillion. Even
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1/ $AMD is an asymmetric opportunity everybody sleeps on. Data center growth is exploding yet the market prices no growth beyond 2026. Here is my investment thesis: ๐งต
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Do you want to know what $PLTR does?. Here is an ELI5 explanation: (Thread๐งต)
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Mohnish Pabrai turned $1 million to $13 million in 5 years. This is 70% annualized returns. He uses a framework called "spawner strategy" that allows him to find multi-baggers early on. I will explain everything you need to know: ๐งต
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$AMZN has 47% estimated market share in cloud while $MSFT and $GOOG have 34% and 18% respectively. Despite its larger size $AMZN cloud is officially growing faster than $MSFT cloud as Azure growth rate declined to 19% YoY. This market is estimated to reach $2.3 trillion by
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$AMZN and $GOOG are my top 2 picks for the next 5 years. These companies together will control:. - More than 50% of the cloud market. - 50% of the digital advertising. - 40% of the TV screen time. Both of them are making their own chips. They will outperform.
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$NU is one of my highest conviction stocks. Revenues are exploding, user acquisition remains strong and delinquency rates are falling. Here is my $NU investment thesis: ๐งต.
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$AMZN is criminally undervalued:. AWS is at $120 billion run rate. At 25% annual growth for the next 5 years and 30% net margin, itโll make $110 billion profit in 2030. At 20 times earnings, AWS alone is worth over $2 trillion. You are getting other businesses for free now.
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$AMZN is literally a steal at this price:. - AWS growth is reaccelerating. - Fastest growing digital ad platform. - Operating margin is expanding fast. Easily the cheapest mega-cap, are you buying?
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