Here's a slightly different take on the probabilities graphic, showing how the #WorldCup round of 16 is likely to shape up as it stands:

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 that is not taking into account first Round , Germany will mot be first in their group ...

@luesanchezr @experimental361 They have only played one game?!

@ThatGarateyjc Interesting to see the differences, although your last 4 are in the same order as my top 4 teams (by % chance of winning), and my next 4 are the same as the rest of your last 8.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 Brazil!! Brazil is not going to win.. u also write off the Croatia and Argentina and a Little bit portugal too. This world cup is still unpredictable.

@RaajanB @experimental361 I did this for the group stages as well and only one prediction has been wrong of all the games played so far so the model is pretty good i think.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 You have Germany having a 77% chance of winning their group? Even though they got beaten by Mexico.

@Yama_vole @experimental361 Germany have a 77% of beating Switzerland should they face them in the last 16, this graphic isnt for the group stages.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 For sure neither Brazil nor Germany would enter finals. That's my prediction after watching their opening games. This would cup is unpredictable, underrated teams are performing better than the stronger sides.

@Manav_Dave_24 @experimental361 Always cagey first round games the best teams play when it really matters i think.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 You have Colombia with a higher % yet Belgium progressing?

@ashley_edmunds @experimental361 Good question! I went against ELO on this one as after going over a lot of scenarios including 10,000 sims Belgium came out on top for the majority which goes against the ELO predictions hence why Belgium progress.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 That does seem logic .

@TeacherTariq @experimental361 Thanks! @experimental361 work is far superior to mine and all prediction models are exactly that, predictions.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 Dude I think u r underestimating Uruguay..

@abhinay7002 @experimental361 With Godin organising at the back i might be wrong!

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 Why do Belgium progress vs. Colombia @ 49%?

@PubPundits @experimental361 Good question! I went against ELO on this one as after going over a lot of scenarios including 10,000 sims Belgium came out on top for the majority which goes against the ELO predictions hence why Belgium progress.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 If Belgium get 49% and Columbia 50% how did Belgium get out of round of 16?

@MarkBotham2 @experimental361 Good question! I went against ELO on this one as after going over a lot of scenarios including 10,000 sims Belgium came out on top for the majority which goes against the ELO predictions hence why Belgium progress.

@ThatGarateyjc @experimental361 Argentina & colombia cant make it to r16 from here

@TopaGuru @experimental361 Why?