Audio only listeners! Get comfortable and sit back because the 50th episode of the Survivor Sweat Podcast is now live! Spotify: https://t.co/kn8Bxzfmh0 Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/acDGIGkiSv

Survivor Sweat Podcast - Episode 50 (FULL EPISODE) *Thank you guys for all your continued support & tuning into our shows! Cheers to 50 episodes and many more!*

As always if you have any questions feel free to message me on X @statsational Good Luck and I will see you back here next week!

Strategy for Large Field Pools cont. The Steelers have a good matchup in Week 15 when they host Miami, but you may have good options to take that week besides them, like San Francisco hosting Tennessee. It is not a play I would consider in smaller pools, but Pittsburgh could be

Strategy for Large Field Pools cont. The third team on the list is Pittsburgh. This is a team that will not have many on them. You certainly sacrifice some win probability over the other teams we are considering, but you lose nothing in future value.

Week 11 Strategy for Large Field Pools In very large pools that will go all 18 weeks and likely have a sizeable chop, we open it up to 75% future value on my sheet. New England is still the favorite choice because of their high win percentage and relatively low future value.

Strategy for Mid Size Field Pools cont. If you had 100 people in your pool last week and 30% took Carolina, who had a 30% chance to lose, the expectation is 9% or nine entries would be out. This week, New England has a 12% chance to lose with 50% of your pool's entries on them.

Strategy for Mid Size Field Pools cont. Houston is the second favorite pick on the spreadsheet, weighting FV at 35%. Houston hosts Arizona in Week 15 and Las Vegas in Week 16. If you are pivoting to Houston, you are doing so in hopes of a New England loss, which could double

Strategy for Mid Size Field Pools cont. There are some future games where New England will be a potential pick. In Week 13, they host the Giants. The other big favorites that week will be Baltimore hosting Cincinnati, which most won't have available to take, LA Chargers hosting

Week 11 Strategy for Mid Size Field Pools In mid-size pools, we want to look at future value a little more. I view a mid-size pool as one that likely gets to Week 18 but potentially may end sooner. New England is still a strong play in these types of pools. Their 87% win

Strategy for Small Field Pools cont. Surely the other two who have Baltimore left will be using them next week. Houston would be the next biggest favorite. Half the participants in Grandissimo have used them already, but the one who cannot use New England has Houston available.

Strategy for Small Field Pools cont. You would also want to get on a team that nobody else is on to give you a shot at winning the pool. If you land on the team the one person without the Pats available lands on, then your edge is greatly diminished. So fading a big favorite

Strategy for Small Field Pools cont. This week, the Patriots are the team garnering the most attention. In small field pools like Grandissimo, five of the six remaining can take New England. If you were one of the six and wondering if it was worth it to fade New England, I have

Strategy for Small Field Pools cont. Hedging is a great option as well, but it can be a lot messier and likely cost more to do. Hedging becomes more beneficial and easier to calculate as you have fewer opponents left and fewer weeks left. If you start hedging too soon, you can

Week 11 Strategy for Small Field Pools In small field pools, we want to look at very little if not no future value. A lot of pools are getting into this category now as we have lost so many entries the last few weeks. This is where the secondary markets start to heat up.

Key: •Win Projection: I calculate win probability based on each game's mid-point of the money line using  https://t.co/sv6K0hXVcw. •FV (Future Value): This value comes from look-ahead lines. Lower numbers indicate more future value for a team. •Pick%: This shows how

Intro cont. In Circa, 15% were knocked out with Buffalo, a total of 261 entries had them. On the whole, we are left with 808 entries in Circa and six in Grandissimo.

Intro cont. Carolina did not disappoint the faders as they went down to New Orleans, knocking out 490 entries in Circa. In Grandissimo, just one person fell with Carolina. The other team that hurt people last week was Buffalo. In Grandissimo, four of the 11 remaining entries

Exploit Spots By John Alesia Sometimes the smart mathematical play doesn't work out. Well, last week it worked out extremely well. The Carolina Panthers were a popular pick in most pools. Circa saw them get the most picks, garnering 28% of all remaining entries. These are the

Week 11 is upon us after some crazy carnage. Whether you're still alive in Circa Survivor, or your own smaller survivor contest - @Statsational has you completely covered with this strategy article. Feel free to follow along with this article in X thread format: