2/15: 2020 was an amazing year for crypto - perhaps the best ever. In March, I sat at my desk and watched a cascading liquidation event send the bitcoin price down to $3k. A small part of me believed I was watching the permanent death of Bitcoin, something I thought impossible.

3/15 Instead, I witnessed the birth of the greatest bull run in Crypto's history - not only in valuation terms, but in fundamental terms. 2020 launched DeFi as a household name. It saw dozens of new projects and experiments launch which are now cornerstones of crypto.

4/15 The narrative around #Bitcoin also seemed unstoppable. The Fed was (and still is) printing money at unprecedented rates. If ever there was a time to buy Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, this was it. Institutions started buying in massive numbers. Meanwhile, DeFi took off.

5/15 But then things started changing. Food tokens started dominating the DeFi narrative. This was the first in a long strong of noise generating moments in crypto's recent history. This marked the start of the decline of the Signal to Noise ratio.

6/15 Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) is perhaps the most important factor in determining market risk. Signal represents true alpha - real information that supports a fundamental position in something Noise is just that - flawed or baseless information that perpetuates a narrative

7/15 Since Sept 2020, "the narrative" became the prime goal of crypto. Consensus and fundamental analysis dropped in importance, and everyone started making BIG money. But it also meant that there was no incentive to *not* amplify noise.

8/15 This was nothing but greed. We fell into a state of complacency where noise alone would carry forward the narrative. There will always be noise in markets, but ever since January of this year the Signal to Noise ratio has been a steep and terrifying decline.

9/15 Food Tokens, NFT plays, Dog tokens, the countless BSC ponzinomic fueled shitcoins: all great examples of noise. Except for the few inexperienced traders out there, anyone who has been in the space for a while knows full well these narratives are hollow.

10/15 Narratives are fragile - when they fail, everyone caught with them becomes the emperor with no clothes. Without fundamentals to fall back on, a dying narrative is fatal. With fundamentals, a market can survive any narrative shift, so long as its fundamentals remain.

11/15 Over the past 3 months, the crypto community has perpetuated almost nothing but noise. The collective voice of crypto has been dominated by low-quality projects and greed driven shilling absent of any true fundamental basis.

12/15 But there is hope. There is Signal amongst the noise. Inflation risk against the USD is only getting worse, with the delayed impact of money printing starting to show troubling signs.

13/15 - EIP1559 solves many token econ problems with $ETH. - $DOT and $KSM relay chains are going to be real very soon. - Eth2.0, L2s, and other improvements are making progress - DeFi continues to suck up liquidity and users - Taproot looks good This is just a handful

14/15 The only thing that will save crypto is the Signal to Noise Ratio going up. Unless we as a community push back against greed and noise, the volatility and the lack of clear messaging will force the hands of traders and businesses to sell.

15/15 I hope we can all continue to find and perpetuate Signal in this incredibly loud market. As the noise falls away, we must not fall into silence. We deserved this drop. I do not expect it to stop until the way this community talks changes. /thread