@SamRo Do this small sample size distribution again and include returns since 1870 and across various countries. You might be surprised to learn that your conclusion suffers from a small sample size window freezers sample of the empire in its height. How did the German or Russian stock…

@SamRo THE REAL QUESTION: What are the avg returns the year after the years in each column!

@SamRo Stocks typically go to zero. Momentum based index typically goes up.

@SamRo In 2022, most people were forecasting a recession for 2023. Turns out 2023 has been one of the best year for the stock market in history 🙌 Never trust forecasts. Nobody knows the future. Nobody. Time in the market > Timing the market.

@SamRo Not usually. But when they do go down, they go down hard.

@SamRo oh they do when you are 120% long.

@SamRo Even more impressive is the fact that, since 1930, the S&P index has produced positive double digit return years more than 4X more often than negative double digit return years.

@SamRo Past performance. Works until it doesn’t and when it doesn’t the results are devastating.

@SamRo Now do Japan.

@SamRo ZIRP and QE are awesome

@SamRo If you drop 50% you must gain 100% to return to even. Doesn’t matter because I control the movements.

@SamRo Buy dips get rich

@SamRo a good piece of research would be to study which bucket is more likely to follow each point of the data.

@SamRo @RyanDetrick Ask Japan

@SamRo Pretty cool to say I lived thru 2008

@SamRo *stock market index

@SamRo @fhoro I found an earlier version of this about 40+ years ago It appears valid historically

@SamRo 2008 lookin' real lonely...

@SamRo China: hold my 🍺

@SamRo 2023 is expected to be a good year. How many years have there been that's a good years are followed by another good year? 2021 was good and then the market tanked in 2022 bounced back in 2023. With that sort of patron is it supposed to tank in 2024?