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Stephen Roach

@SRoach_econ

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Former chief economist Morgan Stanley, Yale professor, author, US-China

Joined August 2019
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Hypocrisy of the hegemon: Draconian US export sanctions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductors are fine but a relatively limited retaliation from China apparently is not. Who coerces whom?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
4 months
US sanctions on Chinese tech have backfired — leading to accelerated progress by China’s domestic chipmakers (SMIC) and a revival of Huawei. China bashing’s strategic miscalculations have resulted in precisely the opposite of what Washington sought!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
Remind me of the point of US sanctions — to constrain or incentivize Chinese innovation? As China quickly closes the gap, the US resorts to the CHIPS Act and the failed industrial policies of the past. America’s strategic quagmire.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
The pitfalls of partnership. Choosing the right partner is the most important thing any of us do in life. China made the wrong choice at the wrong time…with lasting consequences.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
Huawei’s response to US tech sanctions: External pressure leads to indigenous innovation. America relies on short-term tactics, forcing China to rethink long-term strategy. Who wins?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Hypocrisy strikes again. How can the US justify proposing a meeting with a sanctioned Chinese defense minister, Li Shangfu? Re-engagement efforts are being set up for failure.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
Unsurprisingly, Huawei is leading the charge in China’s fierce counter-attack in the tech war. The indigenous Chinese supply chain takes shape — a necessary, but not sufficient, building block for indigenous innovation. Another US strategic miscalculation!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Yet another example of how any western efforts at reengagement with China are vilified by the western media. Conflict resolution is not treasonous!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 month
A sad article for me to have written. There is a part of me that will always love Hong Kong. In today’s FT.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Conflict by assumption: The case against Huawei is based the presumption of intent — that Huawei will activate a backdoor in its 5G infrastructure for nefarious State-directed purposes. Like the case against TikTok, where is the evidence? 2/2
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Singapore is the biggest threat to the future of Hong Kong— a topic that came up at every one of my meetings last week in Hong Kong
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
Henry Kissinger breaks the ice with China once again. His surprise trip to Beijing demonstrates that continued imposition of out-dated sanctions on China’s defense minister, Li Shangfu, have no room in the realpolitik of engagement.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
22 days
Is Regina Ip obsessed with me? She first made up the allegation I hadn’t been in Hong Kong in years. I was there 3x in 2023. Now she criticizes me for being a “typical businessman” despite the fact I retired from Wall Street over a decade ago. Come on!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
By snubbing G20 after attending the BRICS summit, Xi’s global leadership strategy comes into sharper focus: China is more interested in leading a bipolar world than in collective power sharing.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The evidence supporting Huawei’s “backdoor” threat to 5G infrastructure is very weak, at best. It is based on presumption, not fact, unrelated espionage charges, and the long ago military service of its founder, Ren Zhengfei. See Ch 5 of my new book.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
The ultimate in decoupling — denying China access to western-dominated undersea data cables. Dead end for the Digital Silk Road? Fascinating deep dive by the FT.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
One of Europe’s most experienced China hands offers a realpolitik assessment of Xi Jinping that should be taken more seriously in the US. Makes the important distinction between Xi as a war monger (the emerging US consensus) and as a CCP nationalist.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Today, the White House continued to insist that, “There is nothing about our approach … that should lead anybody to think we want conflict.” Denial and information distortion bordering on propaganda. Classic Cold War posturing.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 month
Letter to FT by Hong Kong legislator, Regina Ip, making a very weak counter case against my op-ed of last week — blaming the Fed for HK’s woes!. She also incorrectly asserts I haven’t been to HK in several years, when in fact I was there 3x in 2023!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
12 days
“Sinophobia Unhinged” — from Huawei to TikTok, from construction cranes to Chinese EVs, from trade deficits to military threats — US politicians have drawn on the red baiting script of the early 1950s in their demonization of China. See my blog dispatch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
If Australia can do it, why not America? The US is looking increasingly isolated on the road to conflict escalation with China.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Li makes an important point: Leave de-risking to those who take risks (I.e., businesses) rather than those who cause risks (I.e., governments).
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Why can Japan do what the US won’t? The sanctions-obsession disorder is a recipe for intractable conflict.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
Kissinger’s legacy of grand strategy was at the heart of a once constructive US-China relationship. China is signaling a strong preference to recapture that earlier spirit of engagement. Can Washington meet China somewhere in the middle?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Bidenomics with Chinese Characteristics: The US is now embracing an industrial policy strategy that is comparable to the same approach it has long criticized China for. See my latest blog dispatch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
So far, China is coping reasonably well with America’s tech war campaign. Moreover, US pressures are forcing a shift to home-ground options that may ultimately boost Chinese indigenous innovation. See my latest blog dispatch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
The yin and yang of the tech war — US pressure countered by China’s push for self-sufficiency. Short-term advanced chip disruption is a win for the US but China’s response points to long term strategic advantage.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
The hypocrisy of diplomacy: With the US unwilling to lift sanctions on Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, how can the Biden Administration expect China to resume military-to-military negotiations? Thaws are not an act of nature.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Yellen’s strategic miscalculation: ignoring the tradeoff between security and economic growth. US sanctions on advanced chips hit Chinese growth and spark China’s rare earth’s retaliation that hits US growth. Tradeoff denial vs tradeoff reality.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Nvidia’s pushback against US tech sanctions on China. Underscores America’s strategic disconnect: CHIPS Act boosts supply while tech war crushes Chinese demand. Actions have consequences.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
I agree with the FT’s plea for US-China re-engagement. But to dub Yellen’s confrontational April 20 speech as a “welcome overture” toward that end is a real stretch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
My proposal for a US-China Secretariat: A new approach to rebuilding and managing a deeply troubled relationship — before it’s too late.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Diplomatic drive-by? Blinken-Xi met for only 35 minutes— one of the shortest high-level meetings on record. Consecutive translation cuts the actual exchange in half — leaving each less than 10 minutes of perfunctory speaking time.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Hypocrisy with Chinese characteristics: you need a PCR test to get into China but Beijing now claims foul when others insist on the same for incoming visitors from China where Covid infections are surging.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
The codependency trap of a chips war: Without advanced US chips, Chinese economic growth falters, while without Chinese demand for US chips, America’s semiconductor industry falters.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Tit for tat. America’s strategic efforts at Chinese tech containment are being countered by equally strategic retaliation by China. 1/2
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The TikTok frenzy in Washington— plenty of anti-China emotion but little hard evidence. Very similar to “the case” against Huawei’s backdoor threat.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
Gallagher’s red-baiting painfully reminiscent of McCarthy’’s tactics of the early 1950s. Unsubstantiated and baseless attacks on MSCI and Blackrock 1/2
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The real impact of the balloon — less of a serious surveillance threat but more of an audacious diplomatic blunder by Beijing at a critical moment in the US-China conflict. The latest in a litany of Xi’s miscalculations.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
A downshift of China’s once powerful FDI engine is about to be exacerbated by Biden’s imminent executive order placing new restrictions on US investments in AI, quantum computing, and semiconductors.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
The new House Select Committee continues its one-sided campaign to stoke fear over China’s military intentions. Is this Committee so fixated on “zombie engagement” that it is unable to examine strategies that might avoid kinetic US-China conflict?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Huge policy error in China. Cutting safety net benefits encourages precautionary saving and inhibits discretionary consumption — precisely the opposite of what is needed for consumer-led rebalancing.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
A grim sense of resignation sinks in over Beijing’s acceptance of deepening conflict with the US. Latest blog dispatch based on my recent trip to China.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Back in Hong Kong for the first time in 3 years. The hype over the reopening frenzy is overblown— the airport was empty and I cleared immigration in less than a minute.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The growing frenzy of congressional China bashing. There is not one member of the House or Senate willing to take a public stand in favor of engagement with China. Back to the red baiting of the early 1950s.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Playing it cute with wordsmanship. It is impossible to “de-risk” without some degree of decoupling. Trying to kid ourselves on China strategy through the mental gymnastics of diplomacy.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
7 months
@Jkylebass Your circuitous and convoluted logic hardly justifies the sheer fabrication of views I never held on Brazil, Russia, or China. Apparently, your life’s work is based on a long history of “talking your book.” Keep trolling.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 month
Active debate continues in Hong Kong over my opinion piece in last week’s FT. My three points — HK politics, China’s economy, and the US-China conflict— bear critically on the future of Hong Kong. Critics are taking this personally— not analytically.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The first of China’s long expected, but surprisingly absent, retaliatory moves in response to last October’s draconian US export sanctions on Chinese access to advanced semiconductors. Look for more to come.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
More signs of a fractured western alliance in the US-China tech war. The codependency trap at work — US chip companies need Chinese demand just as much as China relies on advanced western supply.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Xi’s putting Wang Huning in charge of Taiwan is not good news for alleviating cross-straits tensions. He is China’s leading ideologue and a leading proponent of the view that America is in decline.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
At odds with the preponderance of serious scientific evidence, the US gov agency (Energy) with the least expertise to weigh in on the Covid origins debate. It can’t resist the temptation to stir the pot.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
Nvidia is not alone. One of America’s key allies expresses growing concern about getting caught in the crossfire of a US-China tech war.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a catalyst for China’s accelerated timetable of military action. Deep dive into land, air, and sea movements of PLA readiness drills. Mounting Taiwan risks as an outgrowth of a reckless US political gambit.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Relevant to the debate over increased US efforts to strangle Huawei. How much of the policy actions are based on verifiable evidence of the feared 5G backdoor vs deflecting focus from US under-investment in innovation? Classic blame-game of codependency?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
The horrific consequences of China’s reckless and chaotic abandonment of non-zero Covid policy. The right action, the wrong implementation.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Modern day version of Army-McCarthy hearings of 1954. The new House select committee’s opening gambit — the red-baiting of China. Whipping the Congress into a frenzy. A tragic spectacle.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
China has plenty of retaliatory optionality as the US imposes new investment restrictions under the guise of de-risking. In a codependent relationship, decoupling cuts both ways.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
America’s “one China” policy has lost any sense of strategic ambiguity. There can be little doubt it’s now “two Chinas” for Congress and the White House. Risks of Accidental Conflict are high and rising.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Foreign Minister Wang Yi, long one of China’s leading wolf warriors, warns explicitly in Munich of a new Cold War mentality. Couldn’t agree more.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
4 months
Gallagher Unhinged — the sequel. Not only harassing organizers of last week’s dinner with Xi Jinping in SF but now the Chairman of the China Select Committee wants to stop Apple from canceling a lousy TV show. Disgraceful abuse of congressional oversight.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
The US-China relationship is adrift in treacherous seas as the business anchor of their connection is lifted. Adam Tooze argues the drumbeat of war only grows louder as security risks dominate.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
Yellen puts highest priority on national security in laying out guiding principles for the US-China relationship. Xi Jinping did the same in the 20th CCP Congress last Oct. This dual focus on security does not provide an off-ramp for conflict escalation!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
4 months
Gallagher unhinged! Head of House Select Committee on China — opposed to any form of US-China re-engagement — is threatening American companies who attend dinner with Xi in SF. The advocate of “zombie engagement” is living in his own nightmare.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
8 months
By targeting Blackrock and MSCI, the House Select Committee on China has overstepped its mandate and its expertise— borrowing a disturbing page from the Red Scare of the early 1950s. See my opinion piece in Barron’s.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
6 months
As Sun Tzu warned, “Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” Ever since George HW Bush mocked the “vision thing” in 1988, America’s distaste for strategy has only grown. Not so in China. See my latest Project Syndicate piece.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
If this account is accurate, it is yet another worrisome escalation of Taiwan tensions. China may not welcome Blinken with open arms.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
An honest and balanced assessment of new Cold War resolution imperatives by Ed Luce. Couldn’t agree more with his conclusion that “The US needs a strategy to cope with a China that will always be there.” That’s the point of my US-China Secretariat proposal
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
A down payment on Chinese retaliation for US export sanctions on advanced semiconductors.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Tech co-dependency raises a big geostrategic question: If the US can’t decouple from China, how can it de-risk its exposure to the world’s most rapidly growing tech market? Diplomats are making a false distinction.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
6 months
The 1982 murder of Vincent Chin in Detroit is a grim reminder of America’s disgraceful penchant for anti-Asian identity politics. As the Trump-sparked outbreak of China bashing continues, we ignore this lesson at great peril. See my latest blog dispatch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
11 months
Stress on conflict escalation but very little on conflict resolution. That view is an accurate assessment of the sentiments in both Beijing and Washington — the most frightening aspect of the new era.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Profile of US Air Force General Minihan — a loose cannon of Accidental Conflict. Blood thirsty endorsement of the joy of combat!
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Chinese spy balloon + US security pact with Manila + earlier frictions (tech sanctions, new House China committee, McCarthy’s upcoming Taiwan visit) = Tense set-up for Blinken’s weekend in Beijing. Thaw in conflict?!? Hardly.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Wang Huning as a problem solver? Considering his track record as Xi’s and modern China’s ideological champion, not a good bet.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Bottom line: Weaponization has consequences for the “exorbitant privilege” of a sharply overvalued U.S. dollar. If the US goes nuclear and squeezes China’s massive holdings of Treasuries, watch out below! 6/
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Misleading headline: China’s military budget expanded by an average of 7.5% over the preceding five years: the gain in 2022 was 7.1%, making the 2023 acceleration to 7.2% fractional. Article exaggerates the speed of the build-up.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Back in China: First visit in nearly 3 1/2 years. Much to ponder after nearly a week in Beijing. See my latest blog dispatch.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Celebrating the “unlimited partnership” while Putin walks away from a key nuclear deal and doubles down on crimes against humanity in Ukraine. Alignment with Russia is China’s greatest geostrategic blunder.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Expansive interview on US-China conflict with one of my former students, Jordan Schneider, who has become a real force in pushing the China debate.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Two red lines in growing danger of being breached: US support for Taiwan independence and Chinese military support for Russia. Both are potential sparks to Accidental Conflict.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Blinken’s cancellation of trip to China right out of Cold War 1.0: in May 1960, U-2 spy plane was shot down by USSR, which then cancelled Eisenhower’s long planned trip to the Soviet Union. Relationship with the US hit a new low. Deja vu Cold War 2.0?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 month
@ReginaIplau It is ludicrous to blame HK’s stock market stagnation of the past 26 years on the Fed’s two-year tightening campaign, which has now neared its end. Hong Kong’s problems are of its own — and Beijing’s — making.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Lighthizer’s revenge— upping the ante on Trump’s failed China policies. No de-risking — a full-blown decoupling campaign. Like his misguided Section 301 Report of 2018, Lighthizer ignores adverse economic and geostrategic consequences.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
3 months
New piece on Huawei in the FT resonates with Ch 5 in Accidental Conflict, “Huawei as a Trojan Horse.” Unsubstantiated backdoor espionage allegations mask US 5G failures. Blaming Huawei for our own competitive shortcomings.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
10 months
US re-engagement with China becoming more about Blinken, himself. Very different conditions today than four months ago when the trip was canceled. Personalization diverts focus away from strategy. Conflict resolution is stymied without strategy.
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
1 year
Blinken now bails on the trip. Was this the plan all along?
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@SRoach_econ
Stephen Roach
9 months
Talk is necessary but not sufficient for conflict resolution. Yellen’s visit, like Blinken’s, lacks actionable agenda. Meanwhile US increases tech sanctions and China retaliates on rare earths. A porous Biden-Xi “floor.”
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