When the S&P 500 ends a 3-month losing streak by gaining 3%+ in month 4, and doesn't close at a new all-time high monthly close, it has been the best sign that the correction has run its course that I've ever stumbled across.
Monthly close > 4,319 to confirm.
In other words,…
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if I had to fit a fundamental narrative to how on earth this table adds another row of white to it...
Inflation's done
Fed's done
Fed's cutting Q2/3 2024
No recession (maybe 1 quarter in the red)
Slow/low growth climate (Fed cuts more)
Curve shifts, inverts more
Tech to the moon
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@SJD10304
Government shutdown looming. I guess bulls have forgotten the debt downgrade, rising cost of borrowing and the deterioration of US credit. No biggie!
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@SJD10304
...you guys kill me...all of 2023 I heard Fed is cutiing...he said he wasn't gonna cut and he hasn't....ya been wrong all friggin' year...sure sooner or later you'll be right....sure never repriced the market when wrong....total Ponzi..
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@SJD10304
So what's the history on the other side:
If ATH is hit by the end of the month or if the monthly close is below 4319
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@ratraceofframp
Same story at ATH, obviously.
At +2% one more instance gets added to the table, that one is all white too.
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@SJD10304
Do 14 occasion make this analysis stat significant? I would take a stat course on Coursera man!
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@FalcoLeo8
See my pinned tweet and Leo I would suggest you take an intro to math course, or get your eyes checked, because it’s only 13 prior samples. 🤣
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@SJD10304
Careful. Numbers presented here are not statistically significant. Conclusions here are difficult to make.
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@SJD10304
Wouldn’t April or October 2001 have met that criteria despite being only half way through that bear market?
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