Lucas Lyons
@MajorHedgeFund
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Navigating the Fed based economy. "Brilliant" - @bgrahamdisciple "Meme of the year" - @Eliant_capital "They deserve a friggin' award." - @Mayhem4Markets
Austin, Texas
Joined June 2022
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I think I've seen group A before. Not too sure it's a good idea 🤔
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Austin real estate agents losing the 6% of your home's value to email a docusign...
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What happens when the regulators, the media, and the charlatans all work in perfect harmony. $BTC
#FTX
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Two founders discussing how the FED and government should bail them out this weekend. $SIVB
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Do you know how ridiculously easy it would be to replace the Federal Reserve with an AI.
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@NationalistSerb
@UnchartedFather
@GRDecter
naw, notepad is even better... also.. paint is all you ever need for performance charts..
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@zerohedge
money laundering by sending used jpegs back and forth to yourself have collapsed 97%
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So a bank.. Filled by bankers, you know smart people, thought rates would stay zero forever. Racked up 30%+ losses on their fixed income when rates did not stay zero forever.... This is so comically elementary. Shut the bank down for wonton stupidity. $SIVB
@SECGov
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Check out the meme I made for Michael Gayed! Michael gets over the top crap on here for playing the heel, having fun, but personally, he has been one of the most respectful and decent dudes Ive worked with in the biz. His financial thinking is second to none.
@leadlagreport
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$NVDA has a board meeting today. Everyone is laughing around a mahogany table. In walks Jensen with a leather jacket over his leather jacket. Everyone smiles ear to ear. Laughing resumes, it goes on for 15 minutes. Then silence. The intern asks, "do we have an AI department?"
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@RealVision
@donnelly_brent
@maggielake
Agreed. 2021 everyone wins long. 2022 a few heroes won short. 2023 is where we separate the pros from the robinhood gang. Competing narratives, completely divorced from each other. People are debating narrative, in two different rooms, looking out two different windows.
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Interest payments on the US national debt will exceed military spending soon. US yearly military spending is more than the next 9 countries combined.
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@zerohedge
The student loans, the soft pivot & nikileaks, the SPR drain... All bubble gum and bandaids till the election... Then blame unaccountable bureaucrats..
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All yields are surging. We cracked 5% on the one year. Someone make a bullish case for growth please.
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For those of you not paying attention. 33 trillion on the gov credit card and 8 trillion printed to give you the greatest stock market of all time. The X'ers, millenials, and Z'ers will pay for the boomers going away fuck you stock market bubble. This is 2000 wrapped in 2008.
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Hey Silicon Valley VC's, we dont have your cash, can I interest you in some sweet used jpegs? Look at how edgy this one is. $SIVB
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Full bailout then drop 50 bps on their heads. Watch what happens.
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If you dont have your cash in a 1 year treasury you crazy.
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Rally ahead of the most consequential CPI reading in 2 years....
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When you gaslight the world that 2% inflation is your mandate then China starts the silicon wars. $NVDA $AMD $QQQ
@phelamele
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$NVDA dilutes 10 billion and two directors sell millions. I feel bad for the bag holders. No nevermind, I don't at all. Comeuppance might come sooner than I expected.
BREAKING: Nvidia $NVDA files for a $10B mixed securities shelf offering.
Shares falling slightly in after hours trading
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Let me translate Fed speak for you: "We blew it, again, but, we can't admit that, so, we will keep half assing our way through this; our credibility and ego are more important than protecting the worker and economy."
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who favored a 50-bps hike this month, on whether she would favor such a move next month.
“This is a different situation now. We’ve already reduced it to 25. That’s going to be part of the consideration.”
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2 year treasuries just mooned... Next stop 5% 🚀🌑
This is fine....
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Im getting the sneaking suspicion that no one has a god damn clue where this is headed.
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This looks like a Renaissance painting... (keep it civil please ✌️)
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If you think $SIVB is the only bad money in VC land, I have an AI bridge to sell you.
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@realMeetKevin
The difference between yours and his financial analysis is like comparing a doctor to a shoe.
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If JPOW goes 50 bps, I will eat a shoe, live in a twitter space. Bookmark it. Hold me accountable.
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I hate agreeing with Peter Schiff, yet here we are. 🤷
When will investors realize that the
#Fed
picked a fight that it lacks the political will to win. The Fed will fail to bring down
#inflation
but it will succeed in bringing down the economy, financial markets, and creating a financial and sovereign debt crisis worse than 2008.
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Half the market is betting on a black swan. The black swan is a soft landing. The fed cares about their legacy, not your job. They will not cut in 2023 without a brutal sell off.
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@MacroAlf
Its pretty obvious whats going on. You dont have any degree of certainty that coinbase will be there in 5 years. Id guess 9% of bond traders dont think it will be or need to be paid a lot to care. Those folks arent into the risk game.
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Couple banks collapsing, silicon valley adopts socialism, the fed starts emergency QE. $SPX green... seems legit. Theres not a chance in hell they allow a hot CPI report tomorrow. Algos / ODTEs will pump it pretty much no matter what.
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The market rallied on people getting laid off. We should fire everyone, cut rates, then we can get back to ATH.
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With Nike beating by 755 million, please note where the consumer discretionary spending likely came from. "with credit card balances up $38 billion from the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, this marked a 15 percent increase, the largest in more than twenty years."
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For my anger management, heres a cute puppy / cat video. Have a great weekend y'all. Same bat time, same bat channel Monday. 🍻
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Just seems ridiculously appropriate again... Better trade guide than any of the talking heads on fin twit
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that'll do it
THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BARRED THE MENTION OF REGULATORY FLAWS IN THE SILICON VALLEY BANK RESCUE - NEW YORK TIMES.
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Good thing we bailed out some whiny bitches and yolo bankers.
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Christmastime 2018. The markets dropped 20% on a pathetic 25bps raise to 3.75%, the Fed folded and cut. We now have a terminal rate of 5.15% predicted and markets rally. 8.5 trillion in QE perverts everything. This market runs on fairy dust.
You can’t make this up:
1. Bonds trading like Fed didn’t pivot
2. Commodities trading like Fed pivoted
3. Stocks trading like Fed is unsure
4. Housing market moving like lower rates are coming
5. US Dollar trading like higher rates are coming
Markets are all over the place.
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Please stop... Thanks
If inflation is unwinding, as we believe, then we could be heading back to the future, the Roaring Twenties, the last time several general purpose technologies evolved at the same time: telephone, electricity, and the internal combustion engine. The setup is remarkably similar!
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Buffett doesnt take on other people's problems. He looks for value on his own terms. He literally wrote the book on it. I dont understand the reaching out to him in a crisis thing. Lehman tried in 2007, he looked over their balance sheet for an hour and just said "No"
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You get 5 times the earnings for the dollar buying google for AI. $NVDA is offering AAAS or AI as a service which doesnt exist. They make silicon that runs AI. This event just gave JPOW cover to push rates higher for longer. Y'all are weird.
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This person has a CFA and 300k followers. This is not a joke.
Interest expense on national debt in 2022: $475 billion
While the average interest rate was 1.9%
Now, rates are 4% - 5%
Interest could be $1 trillion or more this year. They'll have to print money to pay it.
That's how you get hyperinflation.
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When meme stocks are flying, the Fed aint gonna stop at 5%...
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The meltup / soft landing rally is hereby called the AI rally now. $NVDA beat lowered earnings. Lower yoy revs. Has a p/e of 130. Made 6 billion last quarter and is valued at 550 billion. Hmmm... AI is one amazing drug. To the 🌙
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If I flip over a food package and it says "our story" I immediately put it back. I want good food not to support 2 brothers that started the cookie business in their garage to save the world. This ain't shark tank. I'm hungry.
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$NVDA after pricing in the existential business risk of higher rates yesterday. I call this the uterus technical analysis pattern. For real... Will anything ever matter to the buyers of this stock? Like ball park me bulls, how long can you run from reality in a high rate…
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Not only do the VC's and "founders" want and expect bail outs.. they want them quickly... Like, get it done over the weekend fed & gov. These people really are the worst of finance. Dont like seeing innocents get burnt, but Ill watch obscene ego's melt all day.
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$NVDA is paying a 4 cent per share dividend for 94 million dollars. They diluted 10 billion. Thats a 100x difference of money to NVDA vs money to the shareholder. Or, you get a penny, they take 99 from you. AIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII....
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Thats 25 bps and the speech being leaked. They are floating a balloon to triangulate how "tough" JPOW has to sound. This is the first time in 2 years that JPOW's words are functionally irrelevant.
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there wont be any cuts in 2023... I dont know what y'all are smoking... Been saying it for months... cuts come after pain in the stock market and jobs numbers... We have neither...
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QE double infinity has begun.
FED SWAPS NOW SHOW NO MORE HIKES AS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
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Prepare to get AI'ed in your AI bears. $NVDA > 1 Trillion
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Im selling land in San Antonio. I had an investor "offer" my ask, if I financed him, on his terms, he built a home, then sells it, then pays off the balance. I would be responsible to drop the amount I financed if it didnt sell well. Desperation in South Texas housing. 🤡
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I am death, destroyer of worlds... Also... Great for grandmas retirement accounts.
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Congrats on the "rally" through year end... 2022 was the year of the fed really getting serious on taking all the funny money out of the system.
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Maybe algos and traders are finally realizing you can't get the pivot you want when you jam the markets up 3% every other day.
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