Jonathan Raymond
@JonathanRaym
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Welsh. Investment Manager at @QuilterCheviot. Farmer's son and sports lover. Tweets not investment advice
Berkshire
Joined February 2012
Nasty set of UK Labour market data this morning: - 1. Number of people employed down 2. Unemployment rising 3. Wages growth decelerating Bond yields, the pound and interest rate expectations all down accordingly.
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Why has the stockmarket been so strong? Lots of people are asking me and the good people at @asr_london have tried answering: - ➡️ corporate earnings strength - companies are growing their profits more than expected ➡️ interest rate cuts - in both the US and across Europe
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What?? He was a terrorist!
More Britons have a favourable opinion of Guy Fawkes (39%) than an unfavourable one (32%) https://t.co/CayhgofRNJ
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Round numbers are ultimately meaningless but the London market is dangerously close to 5 figures... Source: Workspace
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During this pod, I posited that Gold was more likely to be in a bubble than tech/AI stocks. We've seen a sharp move lower since in Gold, albeit still well up over 6 months. Source: Workspace
🛎️ BUBBLE WATCH 🛎️ In the latest Taking Stock - After The Bell, James and I discuss whether we're in a stockmarket bubble. We also touch on a few other issues that are keeping us interested here at QC HQ, including why does everyone seem to hate the UK? https://t.co/2BHhLtyvqs
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This was a superb episode At the nexus of all today’s mega-themes: energy security, geopolitics, energy transition/climate change and AI/data-centres growth. The guest was knowledgable, erudite and utterly charming. Goes down as an Odd Lots “classic” for me.
NEW ODD LOTS: What happened to the energy transition? @tracyalloway and I talk with famed energy historian @DanielYergin, author of The Prize, and Vice Chairman of S&P Global, about the massive changes to the energy landscape in the last 5 years.
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Really insightful and moderately encouraging thread here from Kallum on the UK economy.
Why is the UK economy sluggish? (Un)sound money, wealth shocks and crowding out . . . a 🧵 (1/10) #ukeconomy #ukmacro #economy #Labour #RachelReeves #UKbudget #BOE #gilts #finance @John_Stepek @MrMBrown
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Topical joke of the day: - How do you approach an angry Welsh cheese? Caerphilly 🧀 🏴
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Whilst many feel that prices are still going higher, oil and fuel look anything but.
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Short-dated Gilt yields fall and the market moves to price faster Base Rate cuts (2 by the end of the year now) as inflation looks to have peaked. Economists expect the inflation rate to moderate from here, giving the Bank of England latitude to ease further.
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Cheery news for the Bank of England.
UK Inflation (Sep) CPI (YoY): 3.8% vs. 4.0% exp. (prior 3.8%) CPI (MoM): 0.0% vs. 0.1% exp. (prior 0.3%) Core CPI (YoY): 3.5% vs. 3.7% exp. (prior 3.6%) CPI Services (YoY): 4.7% vs. 4.8% exp. (prior 4.7%)
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This is amazing.
Sky's @EdConwaySky gains access into the heart of "data centre alley" in Virginia - home to the servers that power nearly all the major AI and cloud services in the world.
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Also up on YouTube and can be accessed as audio only on Apple Podcasts and Spotify https://t.co/NDTHX14a4S
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🛎️ BUBBLE WATCH 🛎️ In the latest Taking Stock - After The Bell, James and I discuss whether we're in a stockmarket bubble. We also touch on a few other issues that are keeping us interested here at QC HQ, including why does everyone seem to hate the UK? https://t.co/2BHhLtyvqs
quiltercheviot.com
Are we in a bubble? James and I discuss this as well as touch on a few other issues, including why does everyone seem to hate the UK?
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Brent crude oil flirting with 5-year lows. Down 50% from the Ukraine war peak. Source: Workspace
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Given the prevalence of articles, emails and podcasts about Gold, I thought I'd check Google Trends. Yep, sums it up.
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UK food industry blames government for rising grocery bills https://t.co/6sj20Ve5vg
ft.com
Living wage rises and planning system woes are driving price increases, say producers
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Informative article in today's @FT in respect of elevated food price inflation in the UK. Labour costs, regulation (packaging costs and regulations!) and lack of support for agriculture in general the main culprits. Sensible comments from @NFUtweets President Tom Bradshaw too.
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It's been a great 2025 for equity investors thus far. Despite what we might see in the press and contrary to recent history, the US is actually lagging other indices this year, in part down to Dollar weakness. Even the dear old UK is putting in a decent shift! US equities
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