Johan Löf
@Johan_E_Lof
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Head of forecasting / Senior economist @Handelsbanken. Focus: Inflation & monetary policy / SE, US & CN Ex-Riksbank/Ministry of Finance/Statistics Sweden
London, UK
Joined October 2018
Shelter from the trade war storm – our spring Global Macro Forecast is playing out well!. 🔹The trade war shock is stagflationary for the US, but disinflationary elsewhere.🔹In Europe, slowing growth is expected to be the dominant force, keeping central banks in easing mode.(1/2)
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Now looking forward to July CPI so we can hopefully get some confirmation of our verdict that the June surge exaggerates the underlying inflation pressure in economy. Link to comment below!.
Överraskande höga inflationen var mest brus, gav också ett visst signalvärde. Utmanar vår prognos om sänkt styrränta i augusti, men #Riksbanken har gott om ytterligare data att väga in innan beslutsdagen. Länk till analysen nedan! (1/2)
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RT @SHBMakroanalys: 🇸🇪🇪🇺🇺🇸 I väntan på Trumps tullbesked. 🔹Vad händer när vi väl får en uppgörelse mellan EU och USA? .🔹Hur reagerar markna….
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Too early to tell if Swedish inflation indicator drop is merely a soft patch as US tariff shock ripples through global economy, or symptoms of downturn with lasting disinflationary effects. Much to contemplate for #Riksbank, but we expect cut in August. Report link below!!.
Tillfällig sättning eller ihållande nedgång? Inför KPI juni:.🔹KPIF-inflationen tickar upp till 2,4%.🔹Svagare indikatorer signalerar lägre underliggande #inflation framöver (se graf).🔹Tillfällig sättning eller ej? Blir viktigt för #Riksbanken. Vi ser sänkning i augusti. (1/2)
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We've been analysing the macro and market impact of the "revenge tax" in Section 899 of US budget bill. Reinforces our forecast for weaker #USD - check out comments and link to full reports below!.
EURUSD has continued to push higher, undeterred by the recent "trade framework" announced between the US and China. The situation is further complicated by President Trump's recent threat to impose higher taxes on dozens of economies within the next two weeks, especially since
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May CPI Sweden - link to full comment and chart pack in tweet below. .
Underliggande inflation är över 2-procentsmålet, men kyls successivt av och Riksbanken sänker i Juni.🔹ROT-avdraget dämpade som väntat med 0,2pe.🔹Även en tillfällig baseffekt gör att inflationen ser lägre ut än den underliggande trenden.Länk till rapport nedan! (1/2)
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We keep grappling with the whole Section 899 issue - here a new US Macro Comment on the impact on the economy, markets and the #Fed. Link in tweet below!.
Ny analys om makro- och marknadseffekter av USA:s föreslagna "hämndskatt" på omvärlden – Section 899 i budgeten – och det svåra läget för #Fed. Hela analysen här:
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Har du koll på "hämndskatterna" i section 899 i USA:s budgetförslag?.
Makrosvepet – Veckans upplaga ute nu! .🔹Svensk industri i handelsstormens öga – hög exponering mot Trumps tullar.🔹Från handelskonflikt till ekonomiskt krig – inför USA "hämndskatter" som slår mot Sverige och omvärlden? 🔹Och mycket mer!.Artiklar och video i länken nedan! (1/2)
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RT @SHBMakroanalys: Konjunkturprognosen från 21 maj står pall i denna volatila värld. Riksbanken närmar sig nog en junisänkning, dollarn fo….
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🔹Gradual policy rate cuts and elevated risk premiums imply still-high market interest rates ahead. 💭 See what else we have to say – like why the #USD will continue to weaken – here:.(2/2).
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RT @SHBMakroanalys: Lugnet före stormen? Vad hände egentligen vid Fed:s räntebesked igår?. Inte mycket. Man sitter still i båten, ännu så l….
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☕️ Weekend reading.
The trade tariff threat - our latest edition of Global Macro Forecast. 🔹 One wrong turn in the trade conflict or the geopolitical arena risks derailing the recovery.🔹 Economic policy uncertainty; structural weakness dampen outlook, particularly for Europe.Link below (1/2)
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☕️ Vad hände på Fed igår kväll? Kommentar….
Trump on collision course with the Fed, or with his own policy? #Fed policy decision:.🔹Fed does "not need to be in a hurry"; policy rate unchanged, as expected. 🔹Trump demands policy rate decreases, but drive up interest rates via risk and uncertainty.Full comment below! (1/2)
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Trump on collision course with the Fed, or with his own policy? #Fed policy decision:.🔹Fed does "not need to be in a hurry"; policy rate unchanged, as expected. 🔹Trump demands policy rate decreases, but drive up interest rates via risk and uncertainty.Full comment below! (1/2)
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RT @NickTimiraos: Why Trump's tariff threats have the Fed more worried than in 2018:. Last time, nobody was used to raising prices. Now, af….
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Universal tariffs planned by US treasury sec Bessent, according to the FT. Trump wants them "much, much bigger" than the rumoured initial 2.5%. #USD strengthens. Theme article on the trade conflict game & its economic impact in last week's macro report, don't miss! 👇.
The trade tariff threat - our latest edition of Global Macro Forecast. 🔹 One wrong turn in the trade conflict or the geopolitical arena risks derailing the recovery.🔹 Economic policy uncertainty; structural weakness dampen outlook, particularly for Europe.Link below (1/2)
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Don't miss!.🔹 Theme global economy: The trade tariff threat.🔹 Theme eurozone: Acceleration in growth capped by inadequate reform progress. Plus economy, interest rates and #USD in global backdrop article!. Link: (2/2).
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