Gaeten Dugas
@GaetenD
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Prediction markets trader. Political analysis and memes, pop culture, and some sports. Appeared in WaPo, Politico, and Bloomberg. 2023 SSG Trader of Year.
Joined June 2022
I have lots of new followers lately so here's a thread of my greatest hits since rejoining Twitter in 2022. Here's my 49/50 Senate map from 2022. I didn't fall for the red wave vibes but did think voters would punish Fetterman for his bad debate.
Here are my Senate predictions for tomorrow. I was going to flip NV red but I'll trust in Ralston. I think the high disapproval numbers for Masters and Walker doom them while Oz can overcome his due to Fetterman's questionable health. Wouldn't be surprised by 47-51 Dem seats.
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I consider myself in the top 0.1% of political engagement in the U.S. I knew who Charlie Kirk was, but if I’d listed the top 500 political figures before his death, he wouldn’t have made it. Why do people expect those far less engaged to be so sensitive about it?
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I’m glad Kalshi didn’t post a Spotify market yesterday. I would have lost big.
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The local nature center provides a dumpster for free pumpkin disposal in case any of you were still skeptical about Minnesota being a great place to live.
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I forgot to post my monthly “things I look forward to” list yesterday. Here it is. Pretty light month overall with no Econ data during the shutdown, but at least there are some good movie releases.
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Favorite holiday traditions: 3. Opening Christmas gifts 2. Eating Thanksgiving dinner 1. Fleecing traders who think The Weeknd has a chance at Spotify Global Artist of the Year
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Who do you want to win? (I’ll put $100 on the loser of this poll to ensure a victory for the winner)
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Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire came out last year and was put on Netflix in late July. Plus it was its 40 year anniversary with some special events. That likely explained it. So I bought shares of Monster Mash Y and Taylor N and won $2,000. Here were the final results. 5/5
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In 2024, the songs were neck and neck each day. That wasn't true in 2025. Monster Mash had a solid lead this year. Even if Ghostbusters got the same jump it got last year, it wouldn't be enough to overtake Monster Mash. Then I looked at why last year could have been a fluke.4/x
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Looking at prior years and this year's trends, I ruled out This is Halloween and Thriller. Also, the Halloween songs would blow away The Fate of Ophelia, so it was just if Monster Mash or Ghostbusters would win. I looked at the year over year data day by day. 3/x
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The first thing I did was to gather the data for each of the top 4 songs. Over the years, Halloween songs have been getting more popular so they show up in the top 200 earlier and earlier. For example, this year Monster Mash started charting on 10/24. 2/x
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Yesterday's Spotify market was fun and profitable. Here's how I cracked it. In 2024, Monster Mash led narrowly every day before Ghostbusters leapfrogged it on Halloween. Accordingly, Ghostbusters opened as the favorite for this year. But should it have been? 1/x
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Two episodes into The Last of Us Season 2 and I kind of hate it. The second episode takes the two biggest moments from the game, waters one down with a pointless infected battle, and treats the other like an afterthought with no buildup. I hope it gets better.
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One thing the Trump administration seems to be testing in the second term is government by dickheadedness. Time will tell if voters like the results.
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