Daniel -
@Daniel11108090
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Joined September 2021
Dodgers have won back to back World Series with a lower OPS than their opponent. In 2024, NYY had a .743 OPS compared to LAD’d .702. In 2025, TOR had a .745 OPS compared to LAD’s .658. Has this happened before? I don’t know.
An emotional Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wipes away tears after the Game 7 loss
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If the Dodgers win the World Series tomorrow, they will have won back to back World Series with a lower OPS than the team they beat.
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This is a ~0.8 fWAR game. Approaching a full win above replacement if using runs allowed instead of FIP.
Shohei Ohtani homered. Again. Dead center off Trevor Megill. He has three home runs tonight. He threw 6.1 shutout innings and struck out 10. This is one of the greatest individual performances in posteason history.
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Eugenio Suarez currently has the lowest OPS of anyone to ever hit 50+ HRs (combined regular and post season). His OPS is .805. Would be a cool stat if he got it to .799, “did you know, there was a player that hit 50 HRs and had an OPS in the .700s?”
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Why would an IBB to Cal to face Julio make sense in the situation where all that matters is the winning run on 2nd? Am I missing something - all you need is a hit and Julio is more likely to get a hit even if Cal is the more productive overall hitter. It worked, but was it smart?
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I plotted framing numbers (x-axis) against umpire favor (y-axis) from 2019 to 2025 to see how catcher framing correlated with total umpire favor. Generally, good framing resulted in good overall favor (obviously). Of 14 good framing teams (FRV > 0), 10 of them had positive favor.
@Daniel11108090 @MrTaternater @UmpScorecards There is no direct correlation between framing numbers and umpire favor. Last season SF was better than NY at framing and received 32 fewer runs of favor than the Yankees. They were among the least favored teams in MLB. Also, that only is half the equation. Hitter favor exists.
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Past Run Diff predicts future W / L better than past W / L. That being said, having projectabley good high lvg relievers allows team’s pitching to function as “clutch” as a unit (better when it matters most) It would be interesting to see research on how big this effect is.
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The Yankees debuting relievers today combined for -1.51 WPA. For context, this is like instantly losing 3 games in a row This is the worst combined single-game debut performance by WPA ever (No, I don’t have the data on this. Yes, I am ~95% sure of the validity of my claim).
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Intentionally walking anyone as the tying run with no outs is such an awful decision, it’s shocking - and he did basically the same thing yesterday too. 9% WPA IBB lol. John Schneider should be fired.
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Both by nature of the PA (falling 3-0 before IBB) and the base / out / inning state (no base open, not a tie game in bottom 9 where only lead runner matters, etc.) shouldn’t Judge receive credit for a normal BB here? Am I missing something? Do you have thoughts @tangotiger (3/3)
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Had Judge chased a pitch or 2, they wouldn’t have IBB’d him, and likely would’ve been a bad result. Since he didn’t chase, they IBB’d him, a neutral result by wRC+. Shouldn’t he take pos credit (not neutral) for not chasing as he would’ve taken neg credit for chasing? (2/3)
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Assuming no change in base state, (ex: runner stealing 2B mid PA) shouldn’t a mid-PA IBB improve the batter’s wRC+? Like, Guardians fell behind Judge 3-0 w/ runner on first and 2 outs. Then they decided to IBB him rather than continue the PA, pushing the runner to second. (1/3)
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Luke Weaver had the HIGHEST BABIP allowed between 2016-2023 among pitchers who had at least 550IP (.328) Luke Weaver has the LOWEST BABIP allowed since 2024 among pitchers who had at least 100IP (.207)
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Bold prediction: I think Will Warren will be better than Luis Castillo for the rest of the season. Will Warren is very underrated and Luis Castillo is very overrated.
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Not quite — an IBB counts as PA at your wRC+ level. If a 150 wRC+ player gets IBB’d 5 times they get credit for 5 more 150wRC+ level PAs. So it does affect fWAR. It’s tricky — I think IBBs that happen after pitches have been thrown in the PA should probably effect wRC+.
Am I the only one who didn’t know that IBBs don’t count towards wOBA, and thus don’t count towards fWAR? I seriously don’t get how this makes any sense. The stat is built on run expectancy, so I don’t think it’s the job of wOBA to filter out whether a batter earned his way on.
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I would assume that if historically a 94% preseason/ 6% actual stats comb of wRC+ through 1st month would proj ROS wRC+ most accurately throughout the ROS then zips would be closest to this mix - am I missing something (maybe weird adj to new offensive environment?) @DSzymborski
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I looked at: - zips preseason / ROS projs - actual wRC+ (through May 2) for 2025 so far. I took actual wRC+ and preseason proj wRC+ and combined w/ diff weights to see which comb wd be. closest to ROS projs I assumed it'd be around 94% preseason but it was actually 87% (see ss)
How useful are April stats? Going back as long as there have been ZiPS, if you project a hitter's rest-of-season knowing only preseason ZiPS and actual April stats, the most accurate mix was 94% ZiPS, 6% April
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WPA Leaders 2024-2025 (including playoffs) 1. Luke Weaver (5.25) 2. Emmanuel Clase (4.99) 3. Tarik Skubal (4.71) 4. Zack Wheeler (4.59) 5. Ryan Helsley (4.47) Luke Weaver (4.77 career ERA) is the only player in the top 20 with a career ERA over 3.8 Pretty Cool!
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I respect that performance from Weaver. Definitely was not great, and allowed a lot of hard fly balls, but we were up 4. It’s pretty impossible to blow that unless you walk people. If they put it in play, it’ll be an out a lot of the time.
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