Jeff Asher
@Crimealytics
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Not here much anymore. Find me: Email: JAsher @ahdatalytics .com Substack: Bluesky: @jeffasher .bsky.social Web:
New Orleans, LA
Joined April 2015
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Roughly 3 in 4 Americans think crime is rising nationally, but data from cities and the FBI points to possibly the largest decline in murder ever recorded along with large drops in both violent and property crime.
My summary of this year's crime trends:
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For those of you youngens who might want a security clearance one day, the correct answer to "what will you do if approached by Russia?" is "Report it."
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Here is the current pace of what the murder rate might be in 2020 for 50 cities with available data through at least July.
The three in orange were declared "anarchist jurisdictions" today.
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Receptions by a WR:
Michael Thomas - 133
Eagles - 131
Broncos - 128
Vikings - 128
Raiders - 119
Ravens - 105
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Tom Brady honoring Jameis Winston with a pick 6 in his first game as a Buc.
What a class act.
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The full list of division teams to sweep Tom Brady in the regular season in his 21 years as a starting QB in the league:
2020 New Orleans Saints
2021 New Orleans Saints
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If only there was some constant tying the misery of Texas and A&M fans together...
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SNL should zag and put on a well-reasoned and strongly argued debate about the major issues facing America.
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The Saints need to go out this offseason and do what they did 16 years ago and hire the best coach in franchise history while also acquiring one of the best QBs in NFL history.
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I desperately want New Orleans to host the NFL Draft while Goodell is still commish.
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Tom Brady's regular season point differential against every NFL team since 2006:
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My kids are too young to be vaccinated and now they have to show a negative test to go into a New Orleans bar. Absurd.
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NFL: Saints fans should get over the no-call.
Also NFL: Let's have officiating so bad it materially screws the same team week after week.
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So weird to see New Orleans getting victim-shamed for what is essentially a failure of the Federal government. Never seen that before.
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New from me: Murder is down 12% in over 90 US cities with available data so far in '23. I wrote in
@TheAtlantic
about how it could be indicative of one of the largest national drops in murder ever recorded happening this year & ideas on possible drivers.
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The Saints lost a draft pick for dancing maskless in their own locker room.
The NFL’s review of the Packers’ COVID-19 protocols is done.
Per league source, Packers fined$300,000 for violations of the NFL and NFL Players Association protocols, while Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard were each fined $14,650.
Full story coming on ESPN momentarily
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Michael Thomas has 8+ receptions and 85+ yards in 8 straight games. No other player in NFL history has even had 7 straight such games.
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Since the country seems to be circling the drain, now seems like a good time to tweet out all the highly classified stuff I learned at CIA. Here goes:
Oswald killed Kennedy all by himself.
UFOs aren't real.
We landed on the moon 6 times between 1969 and 1972.
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The FBI reported today that they will not be releasing quarterly crime estimates for any quarter of 2021 because not enough agencies reported data to the FBI.
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New Orleans and San Antonio combined have won 5 NBA championships since 1999.
Tonight is going to be epic.
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If there's a way for the Bengals to win but also Eli Apple gets hummiliated in the process, that's what I'm cheering for.
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Mapping the path of the Chinese balloon and extrapolating its intended track pretty clearly shows it is just trying to get to New Orleans for Mardi Gras.
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New Orleans has now gone six full days without somebody being shot. That hasn't happened here since January 2015.
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Louisiana has had the nation's highest rate for 31 straight years.
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Final national murder update of 2020:
Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). Murder up in 51 of 57, 37 of 58 agencies reporting murder up more than 30%.
Spreadsheet here:
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Florida reported 4,049 new cases today with 15% positive.
Cases are rising exponentially while tests are mostly flat.
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New Orleans has now gone 3 straight days without a shooting for the first time since December 6 - 8, 2016.
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Remember the golden rule today: never ascribe to malice (or conspiracy) that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.
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All it took to knock the Saints off their perch was a pandemic slashing the salary cap, lingering injuries to every star, the starting QB getting hurt on a cheap tackle, and still getting swept by the Saints.
Bucs now have won their first NFC South title since 2007.
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Crime fell in New York last year.
The question as New York City’s mayoral primary election approaches is whether voters will try to pull the city out of its downward spiral, especially on crime.
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Stat that is both amazing and obvious: Drew Brees has thrown 42% of all touchdown passes in Saints history.
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Lattimore got arrested last offseason and had a terrific season, sooooo....
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Arizona, Florida, and Texas accounted for 43% of cases reported nationally today but just 17% of tests.
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April 28, 2011 - The Saints have 2 first round picks the same night that Chris Paul loses a Game 6 playoff game in New Orleans.
April 28, 2022 - The Saints have 2 first round picks the same night that Chris Paul loses a Game 6 playoff game in New Orleans.
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Saints rivals, ranked:
1) Falcons
2) NFL officiating
3) Goodell
4) 49ers
5) Rams
6) Panthers
7) Every other team, I don't care.
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An NFL official standing 4 feet away called this a score.
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Drew Brees retired officially today. Here are the 20 best seasons in Saints history in terms of passing yards.
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Don’t let the Saints sweeping the Falcons with their backup TE at QB thereby eliminating Atlanta from NFC South contention distract you from the fact that the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl.
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If the Saints lose to the Falcons on Sunday they should leave Dennis Allen on the tarmac. I know it's a home game. They should drive him out there and leave him.
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The NFL adding an extra playoff team in response to a pandemic and then the Saints becoming the first 2-seed in decades to not get a bye while their star RB misses the game that otherwise would have been a bye seems a bit on the nose.
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The Saints remain undefeated when Alvin Kamara scores 6 TDs on Christmas.
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Shouldn't the Saints as a wronged party receive that Dolphins first round draft pick?
NFL: "In January 2022, the Dolphins had impermissible communications with Don Yee, the agent for Saints head coach Sean Payton, about having Mr. Payton serve as Miami's head coach. Miami did not seek consent from New Orleans to have these discussions..."
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Congress using its oversight role to lead a partisan attack on the intel community to protect a foreign adversary's attack on our democracy. This is not normal.
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Sean Payton era ended in Atlanta.
Dennis Allen era starts in Atlanta.
Very fitting.
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New Orleans won't run out of hospital beds and ventilators in the near future. That's great. Don't let anybody say it's because the dire predictions were wrong.
This is b/c of us. We did this by staying home and stopping the spread. Still a LONG way to go. Grin & bear it y'all.
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Here is the YTD % change in murder for cities with a Republican mayor (and available data).
Murder is up 26% in these cities YTD which is identical to the change in all big cities. Changes in murder trends don't care about the city executive's party affiliation.
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Oh come on, this one is literally lifted straight from The Simpsons.
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That's the worst call I've seen since the last time NFL officials screwed the Saints.
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Me last week: What I wouldn't give for a day that isn't dominated by COVID anxiety.
Me today: Wait, that's not what I meant.
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No offense to my wife and child, but Alvin Kamara is the best thing in my life right now.
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The trash truck came by and knocked out the fucking internet and you can't make this up.
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Tom Wolfe's introduction to Chuck Yeager in The Right Stuff is some of the most beautiful writing I've ever read.
RIP.
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Tom Brady's career point differential per opp:
NOR -31
KAN -20
SFO -8
NWE 2
SEA 7
ARI 12
LAC 37
PHI 48
BAL 51
NYG 54
LAR 55
GNB 56
DET 60
DEN 67
CLE 70
LVR 72
JAX 75
TEN 81
TAM 81
WAS 82
DAL 83
HOU 85
MIN 90
PIT 97
CAR 100
CHI 105
ATL 106
CIN 114
IND 131
MIA 333
NYJ 390
BUF 472
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5 year old, an hour and 15 minutes into the drive: What state are we in now?
Me: Still in New Orleans, buddy.
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How many regular season games has Tom Brady lost to the Saints since joining the Bucs?
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Don't let the 49ers blowing a 20-10 4th quarter lead in the Super Bowl with head coach Kyle Shanahan distract you from the fact that the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead with Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator.
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The Saints signing Antonio Brown the week before facing Tampa in the first round of the playoffs will be the funniest moment in NFL history.
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Nothing brings Louisiana together more than a Falcons collapse.
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Slow news day today other than a cat 4 hurricane about to make landfall, NBA players boycotting playoff games, a 17 year old allegedly murdering 2 protesters, the CDC revising guidelines for political purposes, and the pandemic claiming another 1,000+ American lives.
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They called a season-defining defensive holding on this play where both tackles are moving well before the ball is snapped.
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They moved a Thursday night game to Friday just to play on Xmas, then had the Saints deliver the most watched Xmas day broadcast in 4 years, then fined the game's star for playing up the moment.
Makes sense.
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Well the good news for Louisiana is that we are just 3 more tropical systems away from everyone earning a free smoothie.
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Reminder that it's only a spy balloon if it's from the Spy Balloon region of France. Otherwise it's just sparkling SIGINT.
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Trevor Siemian led the Saints in pass attempts, was 0-4 as a starter, and they still won 9 games.
A season of nonsense.
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Minutes played by rookies in the NBA playoffs this season by team:
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I'm dying reading the Alexa transcript of my 4 year old's questions while he should be napping.
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Whoa, so a sports league can just change the outcome of one of its premier events because an obvious foul dictated its result was unfairly achieved?!
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It took CJ McCollum all of a week to become a better liked New Orleans sports figure than Zion.
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Somebody asked if we had a stud detector nearby and against all my instincts I went and got it and handed it to them without saying a word. As a dad, it was the hardest thing I've ever done.
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I assumed the Russian military would know as much about the invasion plan as US intelligence did.
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Virginia had the 4th lowest violent crime rate and 10th lowest property crime rate of any state in 2016.
.
@EdWGillespie
will totally turn around the high crime and poor economic performance of VA. MS-13 and crime will be gone. Vote today, ASAP!
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Trevor Siemian has never lost while wearing all black as a Saints starting QB.
The
#Saints
will wear black jerseys and black pants Sunday vs the Falcons! ⚜️
#NOvsATL
|
@EAMaddenNFL
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The Pels had a 99% chance of beating Phoenix on March 16th. Lost the game and won the lottery because of it.
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"Thank you for your service, sir. I will now use my 5 minutes to degrade you personally and insinuate your lack of patriotism."
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Catch % vs Receptions through 10 games, Michael Thomas in red.
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