Bernstein Research
@BernsteinBuzz
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Thoughts from Bernstein Research by @feehary Interested in finding out more? Find us at https://t.co/6PmFfJepBz
London, NYC & HK
Joined April 2020
Your periodic reminder that the oil industry has to run pretty hard just to stand still.
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Another way to show the extraordinary concentration of stock returns so far this year…
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YTD, the absolute contribution from the ten largest stocks is the biggest ever.
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The big got bigger – eCommerce consolidated through the pandemic
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As the main driver of Nickel demand transitions from stainless steel to EV batteries, we will need to add production capacity.
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China is the only lodging market globally to still be below 2019 RevPAR levels.
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The global marginal cost of oil rose 14% in 2022 to $83 per barrel.
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While lead times are normalising, you’ll still have to wait almost a year for a new Porsche in Europe.
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Whilst there might be some disagreement about the absolute level, everyone agrees we need more renewables.
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We think 2023 could see record LNG project announcements to fill in the looming supply deficit.
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US Alcohol per capita consumption accelerated through the pandemic led by spirits, Tequila in particular.
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US shale oil productivity dropped sharply last year underpinning a higher margin cost.
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Surprisingly, there is no correlation between vaping & heated tobacco usage.
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While renewable projects yield lower IRRs vs. upstream oil & gas projects, upstream returns can be highly volatile. Investing in low carbon projects helps reduce earnings volatility, making the business case for oil majors to gradually diversify away from fossil fuel.
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Bernstein's @BernsteinRasgon on the strength in chips and whether the worst is behind the sector
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Ramping EV production involves a lot of different time frames.
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Our bottom up estimate of what the GPU cost is for a single ChatGPT query.
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We have seen some big changes in the numbers of planned >1% projects across the various key commodities.
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