Benjamin Spivak
@BenjaminSpivak
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Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Forensic Behavioural Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology.
Joined April 2020
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Victims must always be believed. The uncomfortable truth, however, is that statistically, it is almost impossible to predict lethal family violence because it is so rare.
abc.net.au
Victims must always be believed. The uncomfortable truth, however, is that statistically, it is almost impossible to predict lethal family violence because it is so rare.
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Happy to see ABC news covering our research on predicting lethal and near lethal violence. Happy to answer any questions you might have. https://t.co/ba9MCvWppA
abc.net.au
Victims must always be believed. The uncomfortable truth, however, is that statistically, it is almost impossible to predict lethal family violence because it is so rare.
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Lot of talk in Victoria about the scottish violence reduction units. The only evidence I could find was pre post changes in aggregate crime rates. Is that it?
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I'm highly skeptical of the headline and the author provides nothing to back the claim. Just a reference to some supposed research (no link to the research) from unnamed researchers in Queensland. https://t.co/CqOeeC6j5h
theguardian.com
Queensland researchers studying intimate-partner killings found one thing common to more than half the cases
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This guy has been in custody since the end of 2022 and barely any reporting on his case. Strange to me given how infamous he is supposed to be. https://t.co/l1Q5gjEgUg
easternstandardtimes.com
The Company's distribution network stretched across continents, with a business guarantee reminiscent of Amazon: if authorities seized a shipment, ...
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New BOCSAR work on misidentification. Clever idea. Wonder how the results will be received. https://t.co/HTJ8uL4hIE
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https://t.co/IhbHyhQHZK I dealt with this guy when helping to sell a Jewish relative's house. Seems like he could overlook his disdain for jews when there was money to be made.
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Con Air might take the cake for the biggest mismatch between the talent of the actors and the quality of the story. Still enjoy it though.
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Who are the best journalists covering crime in Australia in your opinion?
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For comparison sake. Here is data from the same survey from NT. Note the relatively higher rate of crime and the difference in trend compared to Victoria
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Still, that is a very important metric when determining your own risk of being a victim of crime and more relevant than total incident counts imo.
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Also worth noting that these tell us something different to criminal incident data. These data tell us about the prevalence of at least one offence recorded by a household/person and not multiple offences.
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Note that in Victoria - self reported victimisation has not been increasing for most categories of crime surveyed. That said, the next release might show a different story.
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For those who want to talk about the relative crime rate in Victoria compared to other states. The ABS crime victimisation survey is a great place to start. The release in march next year will be interesting. https://t.co/mISdzqFAMC
abs.gov.au
National and state and territory crime rates for assault, threat, robbery, break-in, theft or stealing, property damage and police reporting rates
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Who came up with the idea of playing classical musical to deter loitering/petty crime? Seems like it wouldn't work. Would be fun to do a study on. Though I can't see anyone who has done so.
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Unfortunately, I think a lot of opinions on this topic are not tethered to the evidence. Instead people decide what they believe about crime and search for evidence (however dodgy) to support it.
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It not only doesn't measure crime (but rather perceptions of crime, something that is not reliably correlated with crime rates). But it uses website visitors as the sample. I hope people can see that this is not useful data to inform debates around crime rates.
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This "crime index" is making the rounds online for people who want to claim Melbourne is "the crime capital of Australia". Here is the methodology behind it
@BenjaminSpivak @BenPhillips_ANU Of all the state capital cities it has the worst crime rate index, by a fair way too. It also had a significant increase in crime in the last year of 18% https://t.co/JUjVTBkxVn
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This is seemingly never accompanied by any analysis about what is actually driving the change in crime rates or what actually works to reduce crime. It's been pretty frustrating to read commentary about crime rates in Victoria reflecting this.
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It seems like whenever there is an increase in the crime rate, we get some experts stating that we need to improve employment opportunities, education, housing and social services to reduce the crime rate.
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