Arvi
@arvi
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Statistician. PhD from @UofTStatSci, postdoc from @Princeton. Mostly tweet about sports
World
Joined November 2007
New pod! @ATFulemin and I begin our annual survey of every NHL team's offseason. We begin with teams from Anaheim to Detroit:.
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Data cleaning isn’t low value. It’s where a lot of decisions get made.
Academia must be the only industry where extremely high-skilled PhD students spend much of their time doing low value work (like data cleaning). A 1st year management consultant outsources this immediately. Imagine the productivity gains if PhDs could focus on thinking.
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I’m sure Ryan Reaves is a pleasant guy and fantastic teammate; you don’t get to 900 games as an enforcer without that. But my god, I will not miss having his self-aggrandizing quotes bandied about on a weekly basis.
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5. Some Leafs fans are doing their best Islanders fan circa 2018 impression, and it's not flattering.
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Not much new to say about Marner, but here goes:.1. He’s pretty inarguably one of the 5 best Leafs of my lifetime.2. Like all the other Leafs stars in this era, he fell well short of expectations in the postseason.3. It’s fair to point #2 out.4. We’re a worse team without him.
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One of the most obvious issues with this idea is that no one ever states how much money is too much. A large chunk of Americans are millionaires. Is being a decamillionaire inherently evil? A centimilliomaire? By global standards, even an average American is in the 1%.
Zohran Mamdani:. “I don't think that we should have billionaires.”. Do you agree? Is there a point in being a billionaire besides for power?
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I’d probably trade Matthew Knies for Jason Robertson (assuming the latter extends as part of the deal).
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Looking to fill the void left by my dog with a pet rock.
Dave Pagnotta: Maple Leafs might look at acquiring Chris Kreider to help fill Mitch Marner void - The Fourth Period.
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New pod! @ATFulemin and I discuss the Leafs loss to the Panthers, and the major questions facing Toronto in the offseason.
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Doesn’t absolve the depth from being bad, but the bottom six in game 7 makes like, $12M total.
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I think this is a valid point, but the Leafs are also paying their bottom six almost no money, in part because the top guys are so expensive. Yes, the top guys are playing relatively even (or slightly ahead) of their comp, but they’re $3-4M more expensive than their comp too.
Actually kinda crazy how dogshit the Leafs' bottom six was in the playoffs. Without Matthews or Tavares on the ice at 5v5 they had:. 41% attempt share.35% chance share.37% xGoal share.37% goal share. #LeafsForever.
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Same again… they have to make these count and get a lead, because the rush chances go away if Florida is up.
The Leafs have consistently shown the ability to generate rush chances this series, and that’s exacerbated when they have a lead (especially late).
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Aside from it being the right call, wouldn’t it just be super sick to give the home team a chance for a walk off penalty shot?.
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Even in Game 5, despite how badly they played overall, they had chances at 0-0 off the rush. When Florida leads, that goes away. Cliche to say that goals change games, but the structure of this series is way different when Florida needs to push.
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The Leafs have consistently shown the ability to generate rush chances this series, and that’s exacerbated when they have a lead (especially late).
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Victor Hedman is the best defender of his generation, so idk how he fails to make it here either.
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